Tightening Race Puts Rubio in an Awkward Position

One poll found that 78 percent of Republicans approve of the job Rubio is doing in the Senate. DeSantis, by comparison, enjoys a 95 percent approval rating among Florida Republicans.

AP/John Raoux
Senator Rubio at the Conservative Political Action Conference at Orlando in February. AP/John Raoux

Facing a tighter-than-expected race for re-election, Senator Rubio seems to be trying to hop on the coattails of Florida’s popular Republican leader. Governor DeSantis, however, doesn’t seem to be interested.

As the Sun reported in August, Congresswoman Val Demings is gearing up to make 2022 one of the toughest campaign’s of Mr. Rubio’s career. With less than 60 days until the election, the race is heating up.

This week, some of the first polls of likely voters dropped in Florida, with a Susquehanna and a Fox 35/Insider Advantage poll showing Mr. Rubio three and two points ahead of Ms. Demings, respectively.

While Ms. Demings and Charlie Crist, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, are side-by-side in the polling, Mr. Rubio is consistently underperforming Mr. DeSantis. Mr. Rubio just isn’t as popular among Republicans as the governor, according to a University of North Florida poll from August. 

The poll found that 78 percent of Republicans approve of the job Mr. Rubio is doing in the Senate. Mr. DeSantis, by comparison, enjoys a 95 percent approval rating among Florida Republicans.

Mr. Rubio’s numbers mean the senator faces a serious threat from Ms. Demmings, while Mr. DeSantis is widely expected to defeat Mr. Crist.

Mr. Rubio seems eager to hitch his wagon to Mr. DeSantis’s star, at least in the opinion of the pollster in charge of the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, Michael Binder.

“The Republicans in particular have a much higher level of support for DeSantis than they do for Rubio. Not to say that they won’t vote for him, but that base enthusiasm is different — it’s palpable,” Mr. Binder tells the Sun.

Although Messrs. DeSantis and Rubio have appeared together in public on a few occasions during the summer, it’s unclear whether it’s in Mr. DeSantis’s best interest to tie himself too closely to Mr. Rubio.

Mr. DeSantis is a rising star in the Republican party, whereas Mr. Rubio is seen by many as just another senator. Plus, the issue that has catapulted Mr. DeSantis to stardom — education — is not something that Mr. Rubio has a lot of influence over in the Senate.

While these factors on their own might be enough to put some distance between the two men, a larger issue looms over the relationship.

Mr. Rubio’s political career has suffered the wrath of President Trump. Once seen as a rising star in the party himself, Mr. Rubio’s career was derailed by spats with Mr. Trump in 2016. They soured many voters’ opinions of Mr. Rubio, even to this day.

“Ron DeSantis rightfully should be concerned because all it takes is one little nickname, and no one is better at making them stick than Trump,” Mr. Binder says. “‘Little Marco’ is still ‘Little Marco’ and ‘Low Energy Jeb’ is still ‘Low Energy Jeb,’” referring to the nickname for a former Florida governor, Jeb Bush.

If Mr. DeSantis were to face the same fate, it could affect any presidential aspirations he may harbor. As it stands, Mr. DeSantis has been touted as Mr. Trump’s main rival for the 2024 nomination, and a possible successor to the leadership of the MAGA movement.

While Mr. Trump has dismissed reports of an icy relationship with Mr. DeSantis as “fake news,” Rolling Stone magazine reports that Mr. Trump privately complains about the similarities between Mr. DeSantis’s style and his own.

Polling from University of North Florida shows that only 8 percent of Republicans see Messrs. Trump and DeSantis as “enemies,” while 42 percent see them as “friends” and 47 percent see them as “acquaintances.”

Mr. Binder, however, says that could all change on a dime if Mr. Trump were to lash out at the governor. He says that “both have been dancing around each other,” and that Mr. DeSantis “putting his arm” around Mr. Rubio could be a risky play.

“I think it would absolutely be on brand for Trump to attack a rival.” Mr. Binder says. “In a campaign against Donald Trump there is a level of heat that is different.”


The New York Sun

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