For all the talk of President Trump’s political comeback last year, the coalition that put him in the White House and handed Republicans House and Senate majorities is actually quite rickety. The strikes on Iran launched Saturday night — and the possibility of additional bombings — threaten to unwind an already tenuous political alliance between conservatives, nationalists, non-interventionists, and libertarians. 

Welcome to Washington, where for the past 10 days much ink has been spilled over the issue of a “MAGA civil war.” Steve Bannon’s crusade on his podcast, urging the president to stay away from the conflict, was unsuccessful. Tucker Carlson’s tense interview with Senator Cruz went viral, though in terms of policy wins, Mr. Cruz was the victor. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene offered cryptic, tepid criticism without naming Mr. Trump himself. 

Despite those warning signs from some in the nationalist, non-interventionist elements of the Trump coalition, the greater danger to Mr. Trump lurks elsewhere. The president’s base won’t be undone inside the Beltway by political experts and former operators with large podcast followings. Rather, the threat is downstream, in the “manosphere” and “independent media” that helped solidify his 2024 victory. 

One of the great surprises of last year’s election was how low-propensity and low-information voters turned out for Mr. Trump, and seemingly only for him. Had voters who backed Mr. Trump voted for down-ballot Republicans at the same levels that they supported the president, the GOP would have 57 Senate seats and 233 seats in the House. 

The gold-standard study of last year’s election by the data analytics firm Catalist confirmed what many believed to be true: Younger voters — especially younger men — who overwhelmingly get their news from social media, are less inclined to be politically engaged, and less trustworthy of American institutions that were critical to Mr. Trump’s victory. 

Men under the age of 30 moved nine points to the right between 2020 and 2024, while women of the same age cohort shifted only three points toward the GOP. Many have credited the constellation of center-right or anti-establishment podcasters and social media figures for driving young men to Mr. Trump’s camp. 

Some of those so-called manosphere figures who helped push young men to the right were breaking with Mr. Trump even before he announced that the B-2 bombers had dropped their payloads at Fordow. One podcaster and comedian, Dave Smith, who is close with both Joe Rogan and Mr. Carlson, says that he regrets supporting Mr. Trump last year. He now says the president should be evicted from the White House.

“I supported him this last year. I apologize for doing so. It was a bad calculation. At the time, it seemed like the right one, but he should be impeached and removed for this one,” Mr. Smith said on the “Breaking Points” YouTube show before the American bombs fell. He made the comments the same day Mr. Trump told Iranians to evacuate Tehran. 

Another popular podcaster, Theo Von, who welcomed Mr. Trump on his show and supported him in this last campaign, also says he sees no need or appetite for a war with Iran. “I felt like it was supposed to be ‘America First,’” he said during an interview with Congressman Ro Khanna over the weekend. “Now that we’re caught up here and it feels like we’re just working for Israel, I think to a lot of people … you just really start to feel very disillusioned pretty quickly.”

Another comedian and podcaster, Tim Dillon, had Vice President Vance on his show just one week before the 2024 election. Before Mr. Trump dropped the bombs on the nuclear facilities, Mr. Dillon said whatever Iran is doing has nothing to do with the wellbeing of the American people. 

“Is Iran the reason that no one can afford a house? Is Iran the reason that there’s fentanyl everywhere?” he said on his show this past week. “Is Iran the reason that we’ve got political corruption? … Is Iran the reason that we have 12 people that own everything in this country?”

Only one Republican on Capitol Hill so far has signed on to a resolution aimed at limiting Mr. Trump’s war powers. Congressman Thomas Massie introduced that measure alongside Mr. Khanna in the House. In an interview with “Face the Nation” on Sunday, Mr. Massie says he’s speaking out for the part of the MAGA base that is anti-war — the same base that largely overlaps with the so-called manosphere.

“I think I represent part of the coalition that elected President Trump,” Mr. Massie said. “We were tired of endless wars in the Middle East and tired of wars in eastern Europe, and we were promised that we would put our veterans, our immigration policies, and our infrastructure first.”