Netflix hit a home run when it partnered with Jake Paul’s MVP Promotions to broadcast the YouTube influencer’s bout with aging boxing legend Mike Tyson last November. A reported 63 million tuned in, a staggering figure that underscored how modern sports consumption has become as much about spectacle, personality and viral buzz as it is about wins and losses.

Mr. Paul’s quest to go from a video-maker to boxing champion has often resembled a traveling carnival more than a conventional climb up the boxing ladder with Mr. Paul matching himself against former mixed martial arts fighters, a basketball player, and Mr. Tyson, a 58-year-old icon long past his time.

That fight, and a subsequent bout against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., has drawn huge audiences, fueled social media discourse and infuriated boxing purists who see the sport’s traditions being sold for clicks and subscriptions.

But Mr. Paul’s credibility with hardcore boxing fans and Netflix subscribers faces its most serious test on Friday night in Miami when he takes on two-time heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua of England. The bout is less influencer theater and more of an old-school boxing examination of skill and talent.

Mr. Joshua (28-4 with 4 Kos) represents boxing’s traditional pathway. He won a gold medal in boxing at the 2012 Olympics and held the unified heavyweight championship twice between 2017 to 2019 and 2019 to 2021. He last fought in September 2024, losing his chance at the IBF heavyweight title when he was knocked out in the fifth round by Daniel Dubois at Wembley Stadium. The loss ended a four-fight winning streak, but Mr. Joshua’s power and pedigree command respect in a sport that values lineage.

Physically, the matchup is a mismatch. Mr. Joshua, at 6-foot-6, towers over Mr. Paul by at least five inches and is expected to outweigh him by roughly 50 pounds. Experience also heavily favors the former champion, who has fought elite competition for more than a decade.

Mr. Paul enters with a 12-1 record with seven knockouts and an unshakable belief in his abilities. He framed Friday’s bout in language more familiar to the gridiron than the boxing ring. “This is the Giants vs the Patriots 2007,” Mr. Paul said this week in Miami. “I mean, the list goes on, but the odds are stacked against me. There’s no sporting teams in history that have gone together where it’s this big of a difference in terms of skill, experience, resume, height, weight, etc. So this is going to be the biggest upset in the history of sports and you guys get to witness it.”

Mr. Joshua, meanwhile, has promised a first-round knockout, positioning himself as the guardian of boxing’s credibility. If that happens, rebuilding Mr. Paul into a credible boxer will be challenging not only for Mr. Paul but for Netflix.

Partnering with Mr. Paul and MVP Promotions is part of Netflix’s expansion into live programming aimed at driving up advertising revenue and increasing subscribers.  The Tyson-Paul fight was the most streamed sporting event ever and two NFL games last Christmas generated close to $180 million in U.S. adversity revenue.

Those events helped attract 19 million new subscribers, according to Netflix.  The addition of a weekly livestream of World Wrestling Entertainment’s Raw has added to its sports portfolio, and the company has secured the U.S. rights for the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031.

Where Jake Paul fits in Netflix’s future plans could be dependent on the outcome of Friday’s fight.  If he is dominated by Mr. Joshua, it would be difficult to take Mr. Paul seriously as a boxer. He has boasted about winning the heavyweight title someday and being the face of boxing.  But that becomes all hype and blather if he’s flattened by an experienced former champion.

Many traditional boxing fans are already criticizing the matchup, putting added pressure on Mr. Joshua to win.  “People don’t like the fact that I’m fighting Jake,” Mr. Joshua said. “Whether that concerns me or not is another question. But if we look at the people that don’t want to be there, they want me to put an end to Jake Paul’s show. I understand it and that’s why I have to carry boxing on my back with this fight.”

A victory for Mr. Paul would be seismic. It would legitimize him as a boxer and true heavyweight contender and make his next fight a huge attraction that would likely be broadcast on Netflix.

“I think no one’s done more for the sport of boxing in the past decade than myself,” Mr. Paul said. “So I think if people really care about boxing, they’d want me to win. But I see where the angle that they’re coming from is that he’s the traditional boxer, and has been doing it his whole life, etc. But I think I’m more important for the sport of boxing. So if they actually cared about the sport, they want me to win.”

Netflix, meanwhile, is learning that live sports can be unpredictable. Its upcoming Christmas Day slate, once enticing, has lost some luster. When announced before the season began the games featuring the Dallas Cowboys against the Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions against the Minnesota Vikings were intriguing.   But the Vikings (6-8) and the Commanders (4-10) have been eliminated from qualifying for the playoffs. The Cowboys (6-7-1) have a 1 percent chance of the playoffs, while the Lions (8-6) have an estimated 41 percent chance, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.