A British Warning for American Conservatives?

The portents certainly look grim for Tories in Britain, where, polls say, Labor is poised for a landslide victory or even an avalanche. It’s a sobering prospect for Britain’s Conservatives, who won an 80-seat majority in the last election, propelled by Prime Minister Johnson’s pledge to “Get Brexit Done.” Once that goal was met, though, the Tories drifted, failing to capitalize on the possibilities offered by the restoration of British Independence.It surely didn’t help matters that Mr. Johnson’s own party defenestrated him over what in retrospect appears to be small beer — his office’s failure to punctiliously abide by Covid lockdown policies. The Tories then stumbled again in 2022 when Mr. Johnson’s successor, Prime Minister Truss, put forward a supply-side tax cut plan to spur economic revival, only to have it scuttled by what she derides as the “anti-growth coalition.” These included Britain’s anti-Brexit liberal establishment, such as its central bank. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street had already bungled Britain’s anti-inflation efforts. After Ms. Truss’s tax proposal, its chief, Andrew Bailey, unsettled markets in what a Wall Street Journal editorial decried as a politicized “strategy to influence fiscal policy.” The International Monetary Fund, too, chimed in to gripe that Ms. Truss’s proposal would “likely increase inequality.”Into the breach left by Ms. Truss’s departure stepped Prime Minister Sunak, whose leadership has failed to inspire. Mr. Sunak has, on the one hand, neglected to embrace any of the dynamic pro-growth policies pushed by Ms. Truss. He has, on the other hand, failed to offer a vision of renewal by capitalizing on the opportunity of Brexit, unlike Mr. Johnson, who spoke of an independent Britain romping in “the sunlit meadows beyond.”So while Mr. Johnson led the Tories to a historic majority in parliament in part by winning over Labor voters in Britain’s post-industrial North, breaching the so-called “Red Wall,” Mr. Sunak is leading his party off a proverbial cliff. In what would prove a historic first, the prime minister himself might lose his seat in the Commons. It’s only apt, one might say, for a leader who has presided over such a muddle to go down with the ship.Does the Tory debacle offer a cautionary tale for the GOP? In recent decades, British politics sometimes moves in ways that prefigure American trends. The pro-growth, anti-regulation agenda advanced by Margaret Thatcher in some ways previewed President Reagan’s transformation of America’s economy and politics. Then again also, too, Tony Blair’s reboot of Labor in the 1990s emerged as President Clinton tried to push the Democrats centerward.The Brexit vote itself, in June 2016, signaled the rise of a patriotic, populist, and anti-statist movement that in many ways resembled the coalition that would but five months later hoist President Trump* to the White House. The Tory failure to fully embrace Brexit — which would mean welcoming into the fold Nigel Farage, who is instead campaigning under the flag of the pro-independence Reform UK party — is one reason that the party is faltering now. What does it signify, though, that the Tory triumph of 2019 looks likely to be overshadowed by electoral tragedy in 2024? For one thing it underscores the urgency of keeping supply-side policies like low taxes, sound money, and less regulation at the forefront. British voters also appear to be recoiling from feuding in the Tory party, which has seen a succession of prime ministers and a kind of revolving door of cabinet members since achieving the majority. “Chaos, disappointment and disaster” is how Bloomberg columnist Adrian Wooldridge sums up the Tory party as the election nears. While America’s Republicans have high hopes for November, their party’s own divisions — underscored by, say, the dysfunction in the House GOP caucus and the lingering appeal of Nikki Haley among some primary voters — could offer a warning for conservatives here: Remember the fate of the Tories.________* Who favored Brexit and ran against a candidate who opposed it.

A British Warning for American Conservatives?

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