A Future House Majority Could Come Down to Three Indiana Voters

Come January 2029, there is a not-insignificant chance that majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives will come down to a handful of seats. President Trump will be gone by then, though his retribution campaign against Indiana Republicans may fall just short, thus giving Democrats the slightest leg up in the gerrymandering war he started last year. In December, Mr. Trump pressed members of the Indiana state senate to eliminate their state’s two Democratic congressional seats. When those lawmakers refused, the president launched a retribution campaign which included targeting the lawmakers who faced primary challengers on Tuesday night. In order to pass a gerrymandered map in Indiana, the president needed the support of the state house of representatives and the state’s governor — both of which he readily received. His real obstacle, however, was the state senate. In total, 21 of the state senate’s 40 Republicans voted no on the gerrymandering effort along with the senate’s ten Democrats. Mr. Trump could only afford to lose 15 GOP lawmakers in that vote, meaning he was six votes shy of retiring two Democratic congressmen. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump successfully beat five Republican state senators in their respective primaries by publicly backing opponents and having his outside advisors and spending groups launch a barrage of attacks. The two most notable defeats of Tuesday night were state senator Travis Holdman, a member of Republican leadership in the chamber, and state senator Jim Buck, who has served in the legislature for more than three decades. Both men lost their primaries by more than double digits. State senators Dan Dernulc, Linda Rogers, and Greg Walker, all of whom voted against redistricting and subsequently faced Trump-backed challengers, also lost re-nomination for their seats. State senator Rick Niemeyer, a Republican who voted against the gerrymandered map, did not face a Trump-endorsed primary challenger, though he lost re-nomination regardless. One GOP lawmaker, state senator Spencer Deery, is hanging by a three-vote margin as of Wednesday morning. If he prevails, there would be 15 anti-gerrymandering Republicans left in the state senate come 2027. While that may not be enough to defeat a redistricting effort next year, Democrats are widely expected to flip a state senate seat based around Carmel, Indiana, which Mr. Trump won by just about ten points in 2024. The incumbent Republican state senator in that district is retiring. Should Mr. Deery win and should Democrats flip that suburban district, there would almost certainly be 26 votes against redistricting in the state before the 2028 elections. Mr. Deery has declared victory in the race, though no independent analyst has called the election for him. Considering the fact he leads by just three votes, there will almost certainly be a recount over the coming days or weeks. The only Republican state senator to vote against the gerrymandering effort and definitively win his primary on Tuesday, Greg Goode, received 54 percent of the vote. He currently serves as state director for an Indianan in the U.S. Senate, Senator Todd Young. All eight embattled, anti-gerrymandering GOP incumbents were supported by a popular former governor, Mitch Daniels, who previously served as president of Purdue University and was an outspoken opponent of the redistricting fight last year. Another former Indiana governor, Vice President Mike Pence, weighed in to endorse Mr. Buck last month, calling him one of the state’s “most conservative” lawmakers, though that endorsement meant little in the end. Mr. Trump put Indiana state lawmakers under more pressure than he had legislators in other states once it became clear that leadership in the state senate would be an issue. GOP lawmakers in Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, and Tennessee have either already passed congressional redistricting or are going through the process at the president’s behest.The day of the vote in the state senate, Vice President JD Vance — who visited Indianapolis twice to push for the gerrymander — called out state senate president pro tempore Rodric Bray who publicly came out against redistricting before the issue came to his chamber. “Rod Bray, the Senate leader in Indiana, has consistently told us he wouldn’t fight redistricting while simultaneously whipping his members against it. That level of dishonesty cannot be rewarded, and the Indiana GOP needs to choose a side,” Mr. Vance wrote on X. During the floor debate in December, many GOP state senators argued that moving forward with mid-decade redistricting would be a violation of their constituents’ trust. “Friends, we are better than this. Are we not?” Mr. Goode asked his colleagues during debate on the senate floor.

A Future House Majority Could Come Down to Three Indiana Voters

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