Another Pass at a Ukraine Deal Comes Into View, but Outlook Is Nebulous Until Trump Takes Office

While President Biden flits around Africa making apologies for America, the war in Ukraine that exploded during his term in office festers on: Will President-elect Trump be able to end it?According to a new Reuters report, possible elements of a plan to wind down the conflict include some territorial concessions by Ukraine but also taking NATO membership off the table. Hints of what the end game might look like have been stirring for some time now, but the countdown to Trump’s swearing-in as commander-in-chief is on, and with that pressure what has until now been mostly speculation is taking on some more distinct shape. More administration names are now in the mix, such as Trump’s pick for special envoy to the Russia-Ukraine war, Keith Kellogg, a retired former national security aide and lieutenant general.Proposals from three key advisers to the president-elect — including Mr. Kellogg — foresee Ukraine ceding large parts of the country to Moscow for the foreseeable future and share some common elements, such as taking NATO membership off the table. Mr. Kellogg has previously proposed freezing the current battle lines as well as cutting off the delivery of American weapons for Ukraine if it fails to enter into peace talks; he has also proposed ramping up support for the embattled country if Russia fails to negotiate. Trump has repeatedly pledged on the campaign trail to end the nearly 3-year-old conflict within a day of his inauguration on January 20 — a tall order made no easier by the laissez-faire approach of the Biden administration and despite its impressive infusions of money and weaponry. Analysts and former national security officials have expressed serious doubts that Trump will be able to fulfill his promise, given the complexity of the conflict.That said, President Zelensky, who is facing manpower shortages and mounting territory losses, has said he could be open to negotiations. While still seeking NATO membership, he stated this week that Ukraine should seek diplomatic solutions to regain some of its Russian-occupied territory.However, it is the ravenous Russ himself, President Putin, who is likely to be the most reluctant to engage in talks. His terms for a cease-fire are no secret and are hardly palatable for Kyiv: forget about joining NATO and hand over the four provinces he claims belong to Russia. Despite Russia’s economic isolation and staggering losses of manpower, there is more pressure on Washington than Moscow to find a sensible way forward. Reuters reported in May that Mr. Putin was ready to end the war with a negotiated cease-fire that would recognize the current front lines, but was also prepared to continue the war if Kyiv and the West failed to respond to his terms.Russia already controls all of Crimea, having unilaterally annexed it from Ukraine in 2014, and has since seized almost 80 percent of Donbas — which includes Donetsk and Luhansk — as well as more than 70 percent of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as well as small parts of the Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.As per the Reuters report, four of Trump’s advisers said that ultimately a peace deal is likely to depend on the immediate personal commitment of Trump and Messrs. Putin and Zelensky, the advisers pointed out.A former Trump national security official involved in the transition said there were three main proposals: the outline from Mr. Kellogg, one from Vice President-elect Vance, and another promoted by Trump’s former director of national intelligence, Richard Grenell.As a senator Mr. Vance has opposed aid to Ukraine. In September he told the podcaster Shawn Ryan that a deal would likely include a demilitarized zone on the existing front lines that would be “heavily fortified” to prevent further Russian incursions. His proposal envisaged that Kyiv should not join NATO, but few other details have been forthcoming.During a Bloomberg roundtable in July, Mr. Grenell, who in Trump’s first term also served as ambassador to Germany, supported the creation of autonomous zones in eastern Ukraine, but did not go into great detail. He also argued that NATO membership for Ukraine would not be in America’s best interest. A senior Trump foreign policy adviser told Reuters that Mr. Grenell is currently consulting with the president-elect on European matters. That adviser also said that Mr. Grenell was one of the few people who attended Trump’s September meeting with Mr. Zelensky at New York. In the meantime, Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, is already meeting with members of the incoming administration.So, a lot is percolating and the anticipation for a change of gears looks set to build even as the harsh winter in Ukraine sets in — though with little of substance on the table just yet.

Another Pass at a Ukraine Deal Comes Into View, but Outlook Is Nebulous Until Trump Takes Office

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