As Trump Blocks Oil Deliveries to Cuba, the Clock Ticks for a Transition

At night, stars shine bright in inky skies above Cuba’s blacked out capital. At day, the streets of Havana, population 2 million, are eerily quiet. Around the clock, a stench rises from uncollected garbage, rotting in the tropical heat.A 21st century city regressing to the 19th century is key to a Trump power play against a Communist regime that has survived 13 American presidencies. Now, President Trump, the 13th president, takes a page from his favorite president, William McKinley. He trains gunboat diplomacy on the 67-year-old government in Cuba.Unlike Teddy Roosevelt and his Rough Riders storming up San Juan Hill in 1898, today’s U.S. Coast Guard works the seas, cutting off Cuba’s oil imports. As a result, up and down the white sands of Varadero Beach, tourist hotels are closing like dominoes. Russia and Canada are sending empty planes to Havana to evacuate their tourists. Without electricity, one of Cuba’s largest foreign investments, Canada’s Sherritt International Corp., suspends nickel and cobalt production this week. The annual Havana Cigar Festival, scheduled for next weekend, has been cancelled.To avoid tangling with the Trump Administration on larger issues, Mexico, Algeria, and Brazil respect the American oil blockade. A load of Russian oil reportedly is en route from Cyprus, due to arrive mid-March. Boding ill for this attempt, American warships have seized at least nine vessels carrying sanctioned oil.Last month, Venezuela, traditionally the top oil supplier to Cuba, went into American receivership after U.S. forces captured its president, Nicolás Maduro. Last week, in a sign of Venezuela’s shifting geopolitical reorientation, the top commander for the American military in Latin America, General Francis Donovan, made a surprise visit to Caracas. Yesterday, Reuters reported from Caracas that Cuban military advisers are leaving Venezuela, a key American demand.In the Caracas gunbattle surrounding the January 3 seizure of the Venezuelan leader, American forces killed 32 Cuban security advisers. This event was such a shock to the Cuban elite, that Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old de facto leader of the country, emerged from the shadows and appeared at a Havana memorial ceremony, alongside President Miguel Díaz-Canel.“We’re talking to Cuba right now, and Marco Rubio is talking to Cuba right now,” Mr. Trump told reporters last week. Press reports say the Secretary of State is talking with Raúl Castro’s favorite grandson, ‘Raulito’. Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro is known as El Cangrejo, “The Crab,” for a deformed finger. This moniker distracts from his true nature: A 41-year-old Army colonel and business executive who flies monthly to Panama to look after the business interests of Cuba’s largest corporate conglomerate, GAESA. Two years ago, this military-controlled entity had $18 billion in assets held in unidentified bank accounts, a Miami Herald investigation reported last year. Controlling most of Cuba’s lucrative tourism business, an airline, and much of the island’s retail, GAESA was built by ‘Raulito’s’ father, Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja. Before his death of natural causes in 2022, Rodríguez López-Calleja was married to Déborah, a daughter of Raúl Castro.At the time, ‘Raulito’ was head bodyguard for Raúl Castro. In that capacity, he served as gatekeeper to his grandfather, a veteran revolutionary leader now considered the ultimate arbiter of Cuban politics. After the guerrillas came to power in 1959, Mr. Castro built Cuba’s army and police. To this day, all officers at the rank of major and above are believed to have been personally approved and promoted by Raúl Castro.With Mr. Castro turning 95 on June 3, his political utility has a use by date. After he dies, it will be difficult for the third generation of Castros to preserve their power and assets in a transition to a more open future.“No relevant actor within the regime can disregard Raúl Castro’s word without incurring a high political cost,” Cuban exile lawyer Raudiel F. Peña Barrios wrote yesterday on the Latinoamerica21 website. “His disappearance will not automatically imply the collapse of the regime nor guarantee a transition to democracy, but it will eliminate one of the main informal mechanisms of internal stability.”In negotiating with officials of the Trump administration, the Castros’ major playing card is the threat of unleashing as many as 1 million migrants on southern Florida. A generation ago, after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Cubans endured severe privations, including widespread malnutrition. More recently, they showed less tolerance for economic reversals. Between 2021 and 2024, about 1.2 million Cubans emigrated. Today, the worldwide Cuban diaspora is 4 million. If everyone had stayed home, this would be equivalent to one third of Cuba’s population. The nearly 1 million Cuban-Americans in South Florida are loyal Republican voters and big backers of Mr. Rubio, a former senator of Florida. The Cuban diaspora is likely to oppose a third generation of Castros running the island.Mr. Rubio’s team is believed to be negotiating a package of sweeteners: release of political prisoners, a move toward the multi-party political norms of the Caribbean, and the closing of Chinese intelligence listening posts on the island. However, it is unclear if trading an anti-American dictatorship for a pro-American dictatorship will satisfy exiles.Opening Cuba’s economy to American investment would be a big sweetener. Business potentials are as jaw dropping as are the Communist errors in mismanaging the economy. “It is important for the people of Cuba to have more freedom, not just political freedom, but economic freedom,” Mr. Rubio told Bloomberg last week. “Their willingness to begin to make openings in this regard is one potential way forward.” Cuba now imports sugar, coffee, and tobacco — products traditionally grown and exported from the island since the 18th century. In 2002, Cuba shut down two thirds of its 156 sugar mills, leaving 3.4 million acres of sugar cane fields to go fallow.With most of this farm land covered with weeds, Cuba last year imported about $400 million worth of food from the United States. Under proper management, Cuban farms could feed Florida. One million acres can produce 5 million tons of fruit and vegetables. Florida currently produces 2 million tons of fruit and vegetables.On tourism, Cuba has played catch up with the Caribbean, drawing 2.3 million tourists last year. However, Puerto Rico, only one twelfth the size of Cuba, attracted three times as many tourists.Cuba, a one hour air hop from Miami, could attract golfers from South Florida’s crowded and expensive golf courses. South Florida has 460 golf courses. Cuba has two.After decades of inertia, Cuba now faces a ticking clock. Raul Castro will not be around much longer to give his blessing to a transition forged by Washington, Miami, and Havana. The American oil blockade speeds up the clock.Satellite photos of Cuba’s night sky show blackouts spreading, making parts of the island look like North Korea. From the left, a “Let Cuba Live” protest petition signed last week by Jane Fonda and Angela Davis is not expected to move the needle in the Trump White House.In the days of King Sugar, southern winds blew smoke from Cuba’s burning cane fields 90 miles north to Florida’s Key West. Next month, the winds may blow a different scent to the Keys. For Floridians longing to visit Havana, a 17th century travel tip about Paris may ring true: “You will smell it before you see it.”

As Trump Blocks Oil Deliveries to Cuba, the Clock Ticks for a Transition

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