Betting Markets Offer SOTU Wagers on Who Will Come, What He’ll Say, and How Long It Will Last

While President Trump addresses the nation this evening, some lucky individuals will be cashing in on online betting markets, where millions of dollars are being wagered. The bets are on simple yes-or-no questions around who will attend, what the president will say, and how long the State of the Union speech will last. The two most prominent betting markets for these kinds of wagers — Kalshi and Polymarket — are becoming prime real estate for gamblers with a taste for such bets. Individuals sign onto simple yes-or-no contracts which resolve when a certain event occurs or fails to materialize. The payoffs on the “yes” and “no” contracts shift constantly depending on how much is wagered for and against. Across both platforms, tens of millions of dollars are being put on a list on questions ranging from whether a former lawmaker, George Santos, will be in attendance, or whether Mr. Trump will say the word “discombobulator.”On Kalshi alone, more than $17 million has been wagered so far on the speech. Upwards of $3.3 million has been bet on Polymarket. Some serious payouts are possible for those willing to put money down on less-than-likely scenarios. Given the unpredictability of events at the annual presidential address in recent years, some gamblers could walk away with tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of dollars. Take for example the question on Polymarket of exactly how long Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance will shake hands before the speech begins. More than $23,000 has been bet on that question so far. Gamblers can place money on a number of different time windows, with yes-or-no contracts being placed on each of the outcomes. Users can bet that the handshake will last less than two seconds, between two and six seconds, between six and 10 seconds, between 10 and 15 seconds, or more than 15 seconds.One of the least favored scenarios — that the president and vice president will shake hands for between six and 10 seconds — has only a 3 percent chance of happening, based on the betting markets. A winning $5,000 bet on a handshake of that length would pay more than $7,000. On Kalshi, gamblers can bet on whether anyone on an expansive list of potential attendees will be present in the House chamber Tuesday night. The list includes Supreme Court justices, members of Congress, foreign leaders and private sector executives. More than $5.8 million has been wagered across dozens of such contracts. Users on Kalshi can even bet on whether singer Nicki Minaj — who has been publicly supporting the president in recent months — will be at the speech, though the bettors see only a 22 percent chance of her attending, according to the market. If she does show up, a $5,000 bet would yield $22,000. Bettors can also place money on what exactly the president might say. On Kalshi, more than $8 million has been wagered on dozens of words or phrases the president may use. The words “trillion,” “Olympics,” and “fraud” are most likely to be uttered, according to Kalshi’s gamblers, while “discombobulator,” “martial law,” and “insurrection act” are least likely to be in the speech. If, in some unlikely scenario that the president does use the word “discombobulator,” a $5,000 bet would earn $50,000. Betting markets themselves have become much more popular during Mr. Trump’s second term, having gotten a boost from friends in the administration. The president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is now an investor and unpaid adviser to Polymarket, as well as a paid adviser to Kalshi. Just last week, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced that he would side with the betting markets in any state-level legal challenge to their operations.

Betting Markets Offer SOTU Wagers on Who Will Come, What He’ll Say, and How Long It Will Last

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