Blakeman Hopes To Cut a Path to Albany Through Minority and Jewish Voters, and Hochul’s Unpopular Policies

With less than three weeks until Election Day, New York Republicans are counting on Bruce Blakeman to overcome the state’s deep-blue political leanings by converting voter frustration with Governor Kathy Hochul into a coalition capable of delivering an upset.The Nassau County executive faces a difficult task. Polling averages still show him trailing Ms. Hochul, but Republicans see opportunities in three areas: the cost-of-living crisis, growing disaffection among Jewish voters with the Democratic Party, and an effort to make inroads with minority communitiesTo capitalize on those openings, Mr. Blakeman will need to turn his reputation as a retail politician into votes across the state, persuade disaffected Democrats and independents to cross party lines, and convince voters that he can address their economic concerns, political analysts say.“I’ve been traveling the state with Bruce, and you can feel the energy shift the moment he walks into a room,” said Joseph Hernandez, the Republican nominee for state comptroller.Mr. Blakeman, a fixture in New York politics for more than 30 years, honed his personal campaigning style in successful races for the Hempstead Town Council and Nassau County Legislature. He later lost bids for state comptroller and the U.S. Senate before winning the Nassau County executive’s office.His ability to connect with voters face-to-face could help him in a state where Republicans face a substantial registration disadvantage. But personal charisma alone is unlikely to overcome the polling gap. His campaign must also deliver a message that resonates beyond the party’s traditional base.“Bruce’s campaign team is innovative and understands the changing dynamics in this field,” said Therese Joffre, a Republican strategist who works on statewide campaigns, including Mr. Hernandez’s. “I think we learned a lot from Trump, Pratt and Mamdani on how to balance campaign messaging with what goes viral.”The Blakeman campaign has embraced that approach, using artificial intelligence to create ads attacking Ms. Hochul. One features an AI-generated version of the governor boasting about 20 toll and fare increases affecting New York drivers.In September, the newly formed super PAC Defend Empire State released a video invoking the lingering wounds of the September 11 attacks to criticize what it called “the radical Marxist, Jihadi wing of the Democratic Party.” The PAC was formed to raise money for and promote Mr. Blakeman, though it is legally barred from coordinating with his campaign.Republicans hope those attacks will reinforce a broader message that voters are dissatisfied with Democratic leadership in Albany. “Every day we hear from lifelong Democrats and independents who are voting for Bruce and voting for our ticket,” Mr. Hernandez said.Ms. Joffre argues that New York presents a different political landscape from other states where Republicans are bracing for midterm losses.“This race is fundamentally different than ones across the country,” she said. “Voters may hate Trump, but they hate Hochul more. That frustration is going to result in two things: Democrats staying home this year and the highest crossover vote we’ve ever seen where lifelong Democrats vote Republican for the very first time.”That remains a theory the campaign must prove at the ballot box. The RealClearPolitics polling average has shown Mr. Blakeman gaining ground, but he still trails Ms. Hochul by nearly 13 points.The experience of New Jersey Republicans last year offers a cautionary example. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee for governor, shared several of Mr. Blakeman’s perceived strengths: a charismatic campaign style, a moderate position on social issues, and a well-funded operation. Republicans hoped that disaffected moderates and voters uneasy with democratic socialism, including the movement behind Mayor Zohran Mamdani, would cross party lines or stay home.President Trump’s unexpectedly strong showing in New Jersey in 2024, when he lost the state by only six points, had also raised Republican hopes, particularly given his gains among Hispanic voters.Polls suggested a competitive race, but Mr. Ciattarelli ultimately lost by a wide margin. On the same night, Mr. Blakeman won reelection in Nassau County by more than 11 points. The contrast underscores the challenge facing the Republican nominee: translating success in his home county into a statewide coalition.“We’re in a blue state where moderates and independents are getting frustrated with the terrible policies of Kathy Hochul and the Democrat majority,” Ms. Joffre said.Ms. Joffre argues that the Republican ticket’s diversity and its focus on affordability could help the party reach voters who have traditionally supported Democrats. “This statewide ticket is one of the most diverse we’ve had, and communities like the Hispanic, Asian, and Russian are listening,” she said.“Bruce’s message on how he can fix the affordability crisis is resonating with these communities, and I believe the key to winning this election.”For Mr. Blakeman, the task is to turn that claimed interest into measurable support. His campaign must persuade voters that its proposals on the cost of living offer a credible alternative to the policies pursued by Ms. Hochul and the Democratic-controlled state government.The other potential opening is among Jewish voters, whose relationship with the Democratic Party has shifted considerably since Ms. Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by six points in 2022.New York has the largest Jewish population of any state. Researchers at Brandeis University estimated in 2020 that the state had 1.2 million Jewish adults of voting age, making the community a potentially significant constituency in a close election.“The growing exodus of Jewish voters from the Democratic party will make this a more competitive race,” said Alan Steinberg, a political commentator and podcaster who was appointed by President George W. Bush to lead Region 2 of the Environmental Protection Agency.Mr. Steinberg describes himself as an anti-Trump Republican who has remained in the party because of what he views as the Democrats’ increasingly hostile stance toward Israel and tolerance of antisemitism on the left.Polling suggests that Ms. Hochul’s advantage among Jewish voters has narrowed sharply. In 2022, she held a 51-point lead among the group. That margin has since fallen to 13 points, a 38-point shift toward Republicans, according to the polling figures cited in the race.Still, the numbers do not indicate that Jewish voters have abandoned the governor. Ms. Hochul retains an overall favorability rating above 50 percent among Jewish voters, and her favorability among the group stands eight points above water, compared with just one point statewide.Mr. Mamdani, meanwhile, has a favorability rating 23 points underwater among Jewish voters, according to the Siena University polling average.For Mr. Blakeman, the challenge is to turn concerns about antisemitism, Israel, and the direction of the Democratic Party into actual votes without assuming that dissatisfaction with Democrats automatically translates into Republican support.Ultimately, the campaign’s argument rests on the belief that frustration with the cost of living and the state’s political direction could overcome the usual partisan loyalties of a reliably Democratic electorate.“The last decade of polling has been inaccurate to say the least, but I think it is more accurate about messaging than the actual race,” Ms. Joffre said. “It’s clear that cost of living, especially energy prices, is the defining issue in this race. And New Yorkers are unhappy with the direction of our state and what Kathy Hochul has implemented.”

Blakeman Hopes To Cut a Path to Albany Through Minority and Jewish Voters, and Hochul’s Unpopular Policies

Blakeman Hopes To Cut a Path to Albany Through Minority and Jewish Voters, and Hochul’s Unpopular Policies

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