Communist China’s military exercise around Taiwan is not a reaction to anything America or Japan did.  The Americans have been selling arms to Taiwan for years and American advisers have been in Taiwan for at least a decade or more.  Beijing knows good and well that Japan would be forced to act if China attacks Taiwan.  

With Beijing, everything is pretextual.

Rather the Chinese are on a timeline toward a clear objective,  seizing Taiwan either by force or coercion.  They’ve built up a military that has the capabilities needed to attack Taiwan, and Chinese leadership reasonably thinks they might take the place.

They have developed and practiced all the necessary components for an all-out assault and at this point they are just rehearsing, as American Indo-Pacific Command’s top officer, Admiral Samuel Paparo, stated earlier in 2025.

This exercise, however, talks specifically about fighting “interventionist” forces and beyond the first island chain.  That’s a clear message to the United States.

Also of note is the People’s Liberation Army Navy amphibious force operating to the southeast of Taiwan with a modern amphibious ship in the mix. There’s a degree of messaging, but the Communist Chinese are serious about taking Taiwan, and an amphibious assault would likely be part of it.

For too many years, American analysts chuckled at the idea of the PLA mastering amphibious operations. “The most difficult and complex of all military operations.” They’re not laughing anymore.   

The experts also claimed that the Chinese, and the People’s Liberation Army Navy in particular, were unable to exercise in bad weather, and thus could attack Taiwan only during two short windows in the Spring and Fall.  

Maybe not.  The Chinese Navy is out in rough weather now, showing they are an all-weather force — as if that should surprise anyone. The PLA has built itself into a capable force while America’s civilian and military leaders slept.

One gets the impression that President Xi Jinping thinks he’s got the upper hand on President Trump, not least owing to the rare earths chokehold, and he’s certainly shown no inclination to ease up.

Mr. Xi has said that Taiwan won’t wait forever, and we’d do well to take him at his word. If Taiwan goes under, America is finished in Asia and will be fighting a holding action to be relevant west of Hawaii.  Asia will turn red overnight and the alliance between Japan and America will probably collapse, as will America’s alliance with South Korea.

When might China attack Taiwan?

I don’t know, but if you’re in the commentary business you should have an opinion.  I’ve said that China might attack Taiwan any time after September 2024.  And I think they would have if Vice President Harris had been elected president.  They haven’t quite figured out the Trump administration. In respect of Taiwan, though, they are delighted with the new leader of the opposition, who appears to be taking orders from Beijing.  

Maybe Mr. Xi will wait a bit and see how that plays out. Also how America’s mid-term elections turn out, while getting the PLA even more prepared, and readying the nation for the inevitable blowback from America and others if the Chinese Communist Party does decide to attack Taiwan.

A former ambassador to China, James Lilley, often said the Chinese “always telegraph their punches.”

So it is with Mr. Xi and Taiwan.  

To pretend otherwise, or that the United States has got until 2027 or some later date to get ready for a fight with China, is whistling past the graveyard — maybe in hope of finding a trade deal with the PRC up ahead.

Trouble is coming, and soon.

Either get ready or lose.