Democrat Holds Edge in Alaska Senate Race, Poll Shows, Narrowing Odds of GOP Majority Next Year

A Democratic former lawmaker, Mary Peltola, holds a significant lead in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race this year, according to a new poll out Sunday. Ms. Peltola is widely considered one of her party’s best recruits of the 2026 cycle. On Sunday, a new poll from Alaska Survey Research shows Ms. Peltola with a significant lead in the race over Senator Dan Sullivan, who has represented the state for more than a decade. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting in federal elections, and the poll released Sunday shows Ms. Peltola with a 5.3 percent lead over Mr. Sullivan in the first round of voting, 48.8 percent to 43.5 percent. The poll’s margin of error is three percent. The survey results show Ms. Peltola would win the race in the second round of balloting, taking just over 50 percent, compared to Mr. Sullivan who would win just under 44 percent. In the third and final round of balloting, according to the poll, she would take 52.4 percent, compared to Mr. Sullivan’s 47.6 percent. The poll was conducted in mid-March and included interviews with more than 1,500 registered Alaska voters. “Both Peltola and Sullivan are increasing both their positive and negative ratings simultaneously. Peltola’s positive has increased over 2 points since our January survey, which was fielded immediately before she announced,” Alaska Survey Research writes in its polling memo. “Sullivan has pushed his positive rating in this latest survey up to over 40% for the first time in over a year.”The last Alaska Survey Research poll in January found Ms. Peltola and Mr. Sullivan in a statistical tie, with Ms. Peltola 1.6 percent, inside of the poll’s three-percent margin of error. The top four candidates in the nonpartisan primary advance to the general election.Ms. Peltola was first elected to the U.S. House in a special election in 2022, becoming the lone representative for America’s geographically largest but third least populated state. She was elected to a full term later that year, though in 2024, she lost by just over two points. The same day Ms. Peltola narrowly lost, President Trump carried the state by 13 points.Ms. Peltola has pitched herself as not an ideological combatant, but rather a fierce advocate for Alaska and Alaska alone. She has focused much of her campaign on affordability and broader concerns about the economy — a strategy Democrats across the country are using, as well. “It’s not just that politicians in D.C. don’t care that we’re paying $17 a gallon for milk in rural Alaska — they don’t even believe us,” Ms. Peltola said in her announcement video earlier this year. “It’s about time Alaskans teach the rest of the country what Alaska First — and really, America First — looks like.”Ms. Peltola has broad cross-party appeal in what is typically a deep-red state. In both 2022 and 2024, Senator Lisa Murkowski, the longtime moderate senator from the state, endorsed Ms. Peltola in her House campaigns. However, this year, she endorsed Ms. Sullivan. Democrats have put together an especially strong cadre of candidates this year from Alaska to North Carolina. Senator Chuck Schumer only needs four seats to reclaim a majority in the chamber, and he has focused a great deal on Alaska. He is also hoping to flip Maine’s Senate seat with Governor Janet Mills as the party’s nominee, though it is unclear if she will survive her Democratic primary against oyster farmer Graham Platner, who has been endorsed by Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina, who left office at the beginning of last year, has jumped into his state’s U.S. Senate race, as well. Senator Sherrod Brown is running in the special election to take Vice President JD Vance’s old Senate seat after Mr. Brown lost re-election in 2024. He lost his seat by only 3.5 points, while Vice President Kamala Harris lost the state by 11 points to Mr. Trump that year.

Democrat Holds Edge in Alaska Senate Race, Poll Shows, Narrowing Odds of GOP Majority Next Year

Democrat Holds Edge in Alaska Senate Race, Poll Shows, Narrowing Odds of GOP Majority Next Year

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