Democrats Outpace Early Voting Share Compared to 2024, 2022 in Key States

Democratic turnout in the first weeks of early and mail voting for the midterm elections is looking strong, pointing to what could be big gains for the party in November. As of Monday, more than three million ballots have been cast with just over three weeks left before Election Day. Early vote turnout, whether in person or by mail, is not perfectly predictive of the final election result, though an increase in Democratic ballots being returned compared to the same points in past elections is a clear sign of enthusiasm among the most motivated voters. The current state of the early vote, which shows Democrats turning out at higher rates than at the same point in the 2024 and 2022 elections, is another data point — along with polling trends — that a “blue wave” is becoming more and more likely. The founder of JMC Analytics and Polling, John Couvillon, said that by this time in 2022, 2.08 million people had voted, with a 51–32 percent advantage for Democrats over Republicans in states that tracked returns by party registration. Acknowledging it is not an apples-to-apples comparison over the previous midterm cycle, Mr. Couvillon said that vote by mail “increased from 2.51 to 2.54M, while in person voting stayed at 588K. Altogether, 3.13M have voted (54-28% in party reg states).” He noted that the “mad dash to the finish line” begins Monday for early voting as eight states, including Georgia, Iowa, and Nevada, launch their early voting windows this week. In Virginia, which Mr. Couvillon pointed out as having the highest percentage of early voters compared to registered voters nationwide, Democrats are hoping to hold on to one swing district and to flip as many as four GOP-held seats. According to an analysis by State Navigate, in all 11 of the state’s congressional districts, Democrats are currently projected to cast a greater share of early ballots than they did in the 2025 off-year election when Governor Abigail Spanberger won a 15-point victory over the Republican candidate. In order to retake the House, Democrats only need to gain a net of three seats. Two of the Republican-held districts are currently listed as “toss ups” by the Cook Political Report. Cook’s analysts have 213 of 435 House seats at least leaning toward Democrats, compared to 201 at least leaning toward Republicans. That leaves 21 seats in the toss up category this year. Of those 21 districts, only six are currently held by Democrats, meaning Republicans have a much narrower margin for error than their opponents, given the House majority will come down to a net of only three seats. One of the most important stories of the midterm elections will be the expected shift among Hispanic voters this year. After President Trump lost the demographic by only three points in 2024 — far narrower than his 25-point loss in 2020 — Hispanics have decidedly shifted away from him and the GOP in less than two years, according to polling. A recent New York Times–Siena College poll of Senate battleground races found that Mr. Trump has an approval rating of just 28 percent and a disapproval rating of 69 percent. In Texas, where Hispanic voters will be critical to choosing the state’s next senator and governor, Mr. Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics is even lower than the average of the battleground states, with only 26 percent approving of his job performance. Mr. Trump won 55 percent of the Hispanic vote in Texas in the last election. In Virginia and other critical states, Hispanics are now outpacing their turnout at the same point in 2024. By early October 2022, fewer than 4,300 Hispanic voters had cast ballots for that year’s midterm elections in The Old Dominion. In 2024, at that same point in October, about 14,500 Hispanics had voted. Now, as of early October 2026, more than 21,500 Hispanics have submitted ballots — an increase of nearly 50 percent compared to that last presidential election year. Black voters, too, have more than doubled their raw vote turnout in Virginia compared to this same point in 2022.“23 days out from election day, the most notable trend emerging from the early vote is large turnout increases among voters of color relative to the same point in time in both 2022 and 2024. In fact, in every state reporting thus far the white vote share is lower than ’22/’24,” observed data analyst Tom Bonier. On the Senate side, 35 seats are up for grabs this election cycle. Six of the seven toss-ups are currently held by Republicans while North Carolina — home to one of the most-watched Senate races of the cycle — is heavily favored to fall into the Democratic column, according to pollingIn that race, the former Republican National Committee chairman, Michael Whatley, is competing against a popular former governor, Roy Cooper. The RealClearPolitics polling average currently has Mr. Cooper an 8.8-percent lead over Mr. Whatley. Democrats have cast 45 percent of the ballots in early voting, compared to 37 percent at the same point two years ago. Democrats are similarly outpacing their share of the vote elsewhere compared to 2024 at this same point in the year. According to a model from the elections analytics firm VoteHub, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine, Troy Jackson, is leading Senator Susan Collins in the early vote, though the election day vote is expected to be much redder. The firm has the race categorized as a “tilt” Democratic seat. Mr. Trump lost Maine by seven points in the last presidential election. Maine Democrats have fallen slightly behind their 2022 share of ballots cast, though they are outpacing their 2024 percentage. In 2022, when Maine re-elected its Democratic governor and both of its Democratic members of Congress, Democrats had cast 56 percent of ballots in the state by this point. At this point in 2024, Democrats had cast only 49. As of Monday, 55 percent of ballots submitted thus far have come from Democrats. In two other states with battleground Senate races — Michigan and Nebraska — turnout is higher now than at the same time in 2022. In Michigan, 20,000 more votes have been cast so far compared to early October 2022, the year Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer won re-election and Democrats won control of the Michigan House of Representatives and Senate. In the 2022 cycle, 1.525 million of 1.96 million requested mail-in ballots were returned by deadline. This year, more than two million ballots have been requested with more than 346,000, nearly 17 percent, returned so far.Nebraska has also seen an increase in early voting numbers, though not by as much as in other states. As of Monday, 36,700 have been cast compared to 35,800 ballots at this same point in 2022. In Nebraska this year, Democrats have chosen not to field a candidate for Senate in order to give independent Dan Osborn a shot at taking down the incumbent, Senator Pete Ricketts. Democrats and independents have so far turned out at higher rates than in 2022 and 2024. Two years ago, Mr. Osborn lost a Senate election to Senator Deb Fischer, who was re-elected by seven points. At this point two years ago, 58 percent of all ballots had been cast by Democrats and independents. Today, 63 percent of early votes are coming from those two groups.

Democrats Outpace Early Voting Share Compared to 2024, 2022 in Key States

Democrats Outpace Early Voting Share Compared to 2024, 2022 in Key States

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