Despite Being Vilified by ‘Experts,’ Election Betting Markets Turned Out To Be More Accurate Than Pollsters

After all the talk about betting markets skewing toward President Trump inaccurately in the lead up to the election this year, it turns out that the popular new sites were far more accurate than some of America’s best pollsters. Billions of dollars were wagered on the presidential election, and it’s likely that bettors won’t be shying away from putting money down again in the future. The largest betting market of this year — Polymarket — took a victory lap on X on Wednesday after their markets showed Trump winning the exact same states on October 25 that he would end up taking on Tuesday. Trump and Vice President Harris traded the lead back and forth on Polymarket for about two months from early August to early October, until Trump took a commanding lead in the last month of the campaign. On the morning of election day, Polymarket bettors gave Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the White House this year. They also showed him winning every one of the seven swing states that he would sweep that night. On Polymarket alone, more than $3 billion dollars were bet on Trump, Ms. Harris, and other presidential candidates. The betting market opened on January 4 of this year. Many criticized Polymarket for their lack of transparency about the size of some bets that may be skewing the market, though the firm told Fortune Magazine that they were in touch with one anonymous French trader who was responsible for about $28 million worth of bets. Now that they have paid off, the French bettor will make more than $40 million. The chief executive of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that his betting site was a more accurate and more timely indicator of where the presidential race was moving when compared to the press. “The thing that is undeniable is that the night of the election, Polymarket was the first destination to convey that Trump had won,” Mr. Coplan said. “It doesn’t need to be all highly informed people — it can be people who know nothing, but that adds to the liquidity of the market. … A disparate group of market participants, like you see on Polymarket, is more accurate than any given expert.”A smaller betting market — Kalshi — which opened its trading operations just a few weeks before the presidential election, saw $132 million placed on the presidential odds this year. Across all 2024 elections, including the presidential, House, and Senate races, more than $400 million were bet. According to MarketWatch, another betting market called ForecastEx LLC, which was less well-known in the lead up to the election, saw $538 million bet on the presidential race this year.

Despite Being Vilified by ‘Experts,’ Election Betting Markets Turned Out To Be More Accurate Than Pollsters

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