Does the Fall of the Syrian Regime Signal the End of the World’s Largest Refugee Crisis?

One moment, Samer Scher was a hopeful college student marching for democracy in the streets of Modamiyeh, Syria; the next, gunfire erupted, silencing chants of freedom and turning dreams into nightmares.As bullets tore through the air and friends fell lifeless beside him at the dawn of the Arab Spring in 2011, Mr. Scher realized their peaceful revolution had spiraled into a merciless war. Dragged from his home by tyrant Bashar Al-Assad’s soldiers, Mr. Scher was beaten, humiliated, shot six times — and left for dead in a pool of his own blood.Against all odds, Mr. Scher survived, enduring years of terror before fleeing Syria for Germany in 2015. Now 33, Mr. Scher, an Information Technology consultant, is one of more than 1.2 million Syrians living in Germany. Most arrived after Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the border and allowed refugees to enter without restrictions. For the first time in years, Mr. Scher is now considering what was unrealistic and unthinkable a week ago: whether he can finally go home. In a lightning-fast offensive that shocked the world, Syrian rebels — led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — reached the capital, Damascus, late Saturday, toppling the Assad family’s 54-year rule. An opposition fighter steps on a broken bust of the late Syrian president. Hafez Al-Assad at Damascus, December 8, 2024. AP/Hussein Malla“Today, our homeland is back to us, and we no longer need to remain refugees. I will be very proud when this description disappears from me,” Mr. Scher tells The New York Sun via encrypted messenger this week. “Most Syrian refugees will return to the country to contribute to its reconstruction despite the many challenges and fears. But everything is possible now after the removal of the dictator.”In a message to “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Commander Hasan Abdul Ghani urged in a tweet over the weekend for “the displaced all over the world” to return, writing that “free Syria awaits you.” Given that persecution, compulsory military service, and retribution are now less of a worry with Mr. Assad and his family now political asylees in Moscow, does this mean that the world’s largest refugee crisis will finally abate?As of November, Syria faced the world’s largest displacement catastrophe, with 13.8 million uprooted since the conflict erupted. Refugees in neighboring countries, including Lebanon and Turkey, hosts to the biggest number of Syrians — 3 million and 1.1 million, respectively — have already begun the journey in cars and on foot to their native land, a place many haven’t seen in years. The origins of the crisis For more than five decades, Syrians existed under the thumb of an iron-fisted ruler who dispatched multiple divisions of secret police who would disappear dissidents into the dungeons of extreme torture and oppression. The outbreak of war and the onslaught of Russia’s air campaign in 2015 to prop up the regime sent 6.7 million Syrians fleeing across international borders. At 33, Homs native Mohannad Mahbanioglu’s life is one of many defined by resilience. “Life was once good,” he recalls to the Sun via phone. “But fear from the regime marred everything.” Migrants and refugees line up at the central registration center for refugees and asylum seekers at Berlin in 2016. AP/Markus Schreiber, fileNot long after Syria’s war began, he was forced to leave the university where he was studying to be a veterinarian and evade military service. Mr. Mahbanioglu endured five years of bombings, hunger, and displacement before he could no longer bear it any longer. Fleeing to Idlib and later walking 14 hours to Turkey, carrying his youngest son on his shoulder and one bag on his back and holding the hand of his wife and eldest son, Mr. Mahbanioglu found brief stability. “Blood was coming out of my feet, but I was grateful to escape with my family,” he continued. Mr. Mahbanioglu rebuilt his life in Turkey, gained citizenship, and expanded his family. Yet tragedy struck again with the 2022 Hatay earthquake, which destroyed his home. “For the first time, I wasn’t sad that I had to start over,” he remembered. “My family survived, and that’s all that mattered.”Now in Kuwait, with a job in a printing business, Mr. Mahbanioglu is plotting a return home. “I’m waiting for the airports to open, ready to go home to a free Syria we’ve only imagined,” he said. Who Will Return? How many will return largely depends on the country where they are currently displaced. Syrian refugees have requested asylum in more than 137 countries, with Turkey and Lebanon, followed by Jordan and Germany, home to most of the Syrian diaspora. The United States is ranked 21 in terms of the number of Syrians granted visas through the formal United Nations High Commission for Refugees process.A California-based Christian Syrian reformist, Ayman Abdel Nour, who was an adviser to the Assad government and defected, tells the Sun that Syrians in displacement camps in nearby countries, including Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt — around 80 percent of the total — will likely return to Syria. “These people don’t have other citizenships and will go back to their homes, farms, and villages,” says Mr. Nour. He reckons that the top 10 percent or 15 percent and “who are well-established in those countries may not return permanently but will maintain ties, visiting Syria as tourists and engaging in trade or business,” he predicts.“For Syrians in Europe, the U.S., Canada, and Australia,” he says, “I don’t think a large number will return—maybe 10 to 20 percent. Some might consider returning after they gain citizenship in their host countries, giving them the freedom to travel. Their contributions could be a great asset to Syria’s future development.”Mr. Nour explained that returning to Syria permanently after years abroad is challenging for many, including himself. “Families like mine might visit during the summer to see relatives or offer consultancy to the government or private sector elites, but not as permanent residents — especially not in the first few months while stability is uncertain and a traditional, trusted army is still collecting arms.”A Syrian American attorney at Washington D.C., Kenan Rahmani, who serves as the advocacy manager at the Syria Campaign and senior policy Advisor at Americans for a Free Syria, tells the Sun that “every Syrian will want to go home and be a part of the beautiful future that was impossible under Assad.”A California-based Syrian American, Susan Baaj, co-founder of the Burned Children Relief Foundation, which brings severely war-wounded Syrian children to the United States for lifesaving surgery, concurs that most Syrian refugees want to return home, but not all will. “They were forced to leave Syria. Nobody wanted to leave,” she tells the Sun. “That said, some might stay abroad because they’ve already established new lives, and their children may not be able to adapt to living in Syria anymore. It’s been 14 years, after all.”The Question of Asylum ClaimsThe sudden change in situation will complicate existing asylum claims in host nations. America has not issued any formal directives on how to now treat Syrian asylum claims based on persecution by the regime, and the United States Citizen and Immigration Services did not immediately respond to the Sun’s request for comment. Several European countries have reportedly already suspended Syrians’ asylum requests. The refugee exodus has come with a substantial burden on the international community and host nations. By 2021, the war’s cost was estimated at over $1.2 trillion. Turkey reported expenditures exceeding $40 billion by October 2019 to support approximately 3.6 million Syrian refugees. Lebanon’s own economic challenges, meanwhile, plunged over 90 percent of Syrian refugees into poverty, rendering them heavily reliant on humanitarian aid.The Challenges of Going Back The United Nations High Commission for Refugees has stated that “any refugee return must be voluntary, dignified and safe” and that they are “working with all stakeholders to address what refugees identify as obstacles to their return to end their displacement.”Some contend that there is a lot more that needs to happen before Syrians can go home, provided they still have homes in the wake of almost 14 years of conflict. The most significant deterrent for returnees is the dire humanitarian situation in the country, which, despite the country’s liberation, won’t miraculously improve overnight.Economic collapse and instability have left ordinary Syrians struggling to survive in a failed state with little loyalty to prop up Assad’s regime. As of 2024, a staggering 16.7 million people — 9 percent more than the previous year and including 7.5 million children — depend on humanitarian aid.The war has displaced 7.2 million people within Syria, the highest number globally since the war began, while 6.5 million live as refugees or asylum-seekers abroad. Millions face a grim reality of destroyed infrastructure, with roads, schools, hospitals, and homes in ruins, severing access to essential services. Children are particularly vulnerable, with 2 million Syrian refugee children out of school and 1.6 million more at risk of dropping out. Malnutrition and diseases like cholera and respiratory infections thrive in overcrowded shelters, while poverty and unemployment compound the suffering. Syria’s struggle underscores the immense cost of prolonged conflict, with no immediate relief in sight.An Unknown Future Syrians point out that a solid foundation of stability is essential before large-scale repatriation can begin. Some analysts warn, however, that the Syrian opposition is not a monolith, with many players and powers vying for influence. Even though Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s leadership has made a strong effort since seizing Aleppo to present themselves as a moderate force that will protect all sects and minorities, some are wary. “The regime previously wanted me because of my opposition political activity, as the security officials of the fallen regime are still present inside Syria, and I fear acts of revenge against me or my family,” a Syrian opposition activist not aligned with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Hesham Hawa, tells the Sun through encrypted messenger from Gaziantep, Turkey. “I also fear HTS, which is currently leading armed activity inside Syria, as I was directly threatened by them in northern Syria.”The senior director of the Counter Extremism Project, Hans-Jakob Schindler, tells the Sun that another wave of Syrians fleeing is still a cause for concern, stressing that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is one of several rebel groups operating in the country. “There’s also the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, the Kurds, and other Islamist groups outside the current HTS coalition. For these groups to coexist, they’ll need some form of power-sharing agreement, which could either come through negotiations or, as we’ve seen in the past 12 years, through violence,” he cautioned. “While there’s talk of inclusivity, women’s rights, and minority protections, the reality is that HTS and other factions in the coalition are still Islamist in nature, and some are outright extremist. Everything depends on whether these factions can resolve their power struggles peacefully and what kind of government emerges.”The path forward for a post-Assad Syria is fraught with challenges, including a history of infighting among opposition groups and uncertainties about its territorial unity. Turkey maintains influence in the north, backing various rebel factions and controlling significant areas. America, with around 900 troops in the northeast, supports Kurdish-led forces, while Israel swiftly moved to occupy Quneitra near the Golan Heights following Assad’s fall. With Syria no longer a critical supply path and player in Iran’s “axis of resistance,” the Shia militias in Iraq and Lebanon’s Hezbollah are wild cards when it comes to what happens next, making repatriation a daunting prospect for some.”Reconstruction will require cooperation. Politically, Syria faces the risk of fragmentation, with potentially hundreds of parties struggling to find consensus — an issue that has plagued other countries in similar post-conflict situations,” Mr. Nour surmised. “It’s a long, difficult road, but one that will require unity and determination from all Syrians.”For now, many in exile are hoping for the best. Conflict analyst Ronnie Hamada, who fled his hometown of Aleppo at the height of the war and is now based in Germany, tells the Sun on encrypted messenger that “so many left everything to their name to escape to safety,” but the number who go back “depends on the coming transitional government.”“People are tired,” he added. “They want to go home.”

Does the Fall of the Syrian Regime Signal the End of the World’s Largest Refugee Crisis?

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