Early Voting Tilts Slightly in Favor of Democrats, Though Republicans Have an Election Day Advantage

Early voting and mail-in voting numbers are so far a good sign for Democrats and Vice President Harris, though the close nature of the race gives President Trump plenty of room to make up ground before polls close on election day. Recent data shows Democrats have been far more motivated in swing states to get their ballots returned to election officials. Democrats in Nevada — a state that could come down to just a few thousand votes this year — kept that trend moving on Sunday as their early vote numbers were posted. Statewide, Democrats have returned about 1,800 more ballots than their Republican counterparts — which is down significantly from the 40,000-vote lead Democrats had at this point in 2020, though mail voting was obviously much more prevalent during the Covid pandemic. While Ms. Harris’s 1,800-vote lead in the state may seem small, her margins at Clark County — home to Las Vegas — are promising for the Democratic nominee. Roughly 30,000 registered Democrats have returned their ballots to election officials, while just around 18,000 Republicans have done the same. With more than 60 percent of early votes being returned coming from Democrats, Ms. Harris is outpacing President Biden’s 2020 performance so far. He won Clark County by only nine points four years ago. A widely respected reporter and political commentator in the state, Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent, says Democrats are posting decent numbers, though not enough to shut Trump out of the state.“If, as expected, there is a 5-point or so [Republican] turnout edge after Election Day, that means Dems (Kamala Harris) will have to win [independents] by somewhere around 5 points to win the state, all other things being equal,” he wrote on his election blog on Sunday morning. In Nevada, the most recent reliable poll to post crosstabs of political affiliation and their preferred candidate was by InsiderAdvantage on September 30. That survey found Ms. Harris leading Trump among independent voters by just over six points. In Virginia — a state Ms. Harris is expected to win by a relatively wide margin next month — mail voting and early voting look slightly more favorable to Republicans. More than one million people have already voted in the state, which is not far behind the 1.3 million who had voted early at this point four years ago. Most of the votes are coming from Republican-leaning areas. According to an analysis by the Virginia Public Access Project, voter turnout is higher in Virginia’s safely Republican congressional districts than it is in the state’s safely Democratic ones. In North Carolina, too, Republicans have seemingly made up some ground with their Democratic opponents compared to four years ago. As of Sunday, 35 percent of total ballots cast have come from Democrats, 34 percent from Republicans, and 31 percent from independents. At this point four years ago, Democrats represented 47 percent of all early votes cast, while Republicans represented just 25 percent. Pennsylvania may be the best story of Democrats’ early and mail vote efforts. As of Friday, registered Democrats had returned more than 500,000 ballots either via mail or by in-person voting, while Republicans had returned just over 212,000. Democrats’ total return rate for mail ballots was nearly 49 percent, compared to a 40 percent return rate for Republicans.

Early Voting Tilts Slightly in Favor of Democrats, Though Republicans Have an Election Day Advantage

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