Election Forecaster Downgrades Cruz’s Chances of Keeping His Texas Senate Seat

Democrats are getting another glimmer of hope in Texas as the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its ranking of Texas further away from solidly favoring sitting Senator Cruz to the less favorable “lean Republican” rating.The senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, Jessica Taylor, notes the race between Mr. Cruz and Congressman Colin Allred is one of the few elections this year where Democrats are not on the defense as they seek to protect their slim majority in the Senate.Ms. Taylor says Mr. Allred has a history as a strong fundraiser and unseated former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, Pete Sessions, in 2018. “He is now facing one of the GOP’s biggest bogeymen in Cruz, who’s catnip for devoted liberal online donors,” she wrote. “As a result, Allred outraised Cruz in the second quarter of the year — $10.5 million to $7.9 million — and those close to his campaign say he’s on pace for an even larger third quarter. Allred ended June with almost $10.5 million in the bank compared to $12.7 for Cruz.”In 2018, Mr. Cruz also had a tough re-election bid when he faced off against Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who came within 2.4 points of winning in a year that was favorable for Democrats. Fast forward to 2024, a year when Republicans are optimistic about their chances of winning the majority in the upper chamber, and polls show Mr. Cruz once again locked in a tight race. Ms. Taylor noted two issues that appear to be hurting Mr. Cruz — Texas’ strict “heartbeat” abortion ban, and his 2021 jaunt to Cancun. One Republican strategist told Cook Political, “That has caused him more misery than anything he’s done or said.”“Cancun is still the back of [voters’] minds,” a separate Republican strategist suggested. “It builds a narrative around Cruz just to remind voters that they don’t like him.”Polls have consistently shown a tight race in Texas. On Sunday, a Public Policy Polling/Clean and Prosperous America poll found Mr. Allred in a statistical tie with Mr. Cruz, trailing by just one point. The survey has a 3.5 percent margin of error. Another poll conducted by Emerson College and The Hill and released on September 26 found Mr. Cruz leading Mr. Allred 49 percent to 45 percent. Ms. Taylor writes in her analysis, “We still think this race remains tough for Allred, and that winning those last few points in Texas will be a herculean task. Republicans say they are now beginning to drive up Allred’s negatives as well as more money pours in, and an Oct. 15 debate will also be crucial.”“But the contest is closer than once thought, which the spending bears out, and Allred is raising plenty of money to keep the race competitive. As such, it moves to Lean Republican,” she adds.A spokeswoman for Mr. Cruz directed the New York Sun to the National Republican Senatorial Committee for comment, which did not respond by publication time. The shift in ranking comes as Democrats are spending heavily in Texas and Florida, where they also think they have a shot of unseating Republican incumbent, Rick Scott. Last month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it was making a “multimillion-dollar” ad buy in the two states. DSCC chairman Senator Gary Peters said in a statement about the ad campaign, “Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense.”“All cycle long, the DSCC has been preparing to take advantage of Sens. Cruz and Scott’s damaged standings in their states — and now our efforts in Texas and Florida are accelerating,” he added. If Republicans retain all their current seats, they need to win just two seats to flip control of the Senate. Axios reported in September that Republicans are optimistic about their chances of unseating the Democratic incumbents in Montana and Ohio.

Election Forecaster Downgrades Cruz’s Chances of Keeping His Texas Senate Seat

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