‘Europe First’?

“Europe First.” That’s the new cry from the continent’s captains of commerce, the Times reports. It’s an echo of President Trump’s “America First” agenda, as he pursued a platform of “protectionism and business-friendly tax and regulatory pledges” back to the White House, the Times says. Now Europe’s business leaders are concerned and “furiously lobbying policymakers in Brussels,” as the Times puts it, to pay more heed to the continent’s interests.Europe’s parochial push is a reminder that mercantilism is a game that two can play. Trump’s plans to revive America’s industrial prowess by way of a “pro-America trade policy” — in other words, protectionism — might have made for good campaign trail fodder. History, though, shows that tariffs can be a double-edged sword. Feature the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which ignited a trade war and worsened the Depression. That legislation effectively doubled tariffs in an effort to protect American industry and farmers from foreign competition. It didn’t seem to occur to the solons that our trade rivals might follow suit. So not only did the tariff reduce imports here — it also led our exports to plunge. Transatlantic trade dropped by some two-thirds. The Sun at the time had warned against high tariffs that would “mean higher living costs and the disturbance of business.”That’s not to say Trump intends to repeat the mistakes of the past. Analysts like our Lawrence Kudlow have marked that his tariff proposals are envisioned as a cudgel to advance American interests, like freer trade, in trade negotiations. Plus, too, Trump has called for a Reciprocal Trade Act which calls for American tariffs to match those levied by our trading partners. That suggests that if our rivals offer a level playing field for trade, America will follow suit.Smoot-Hawley’s lessons were heeded by the post-World War II generation that saw low trade barriers as a path to global prosperity. That low-tariff consensus lasted for decades even as both America and Europe, since letting Beijing into the World Trade Organization in 2001, have been bleeding manufacturing jobs to Communist China. Now that Trump is shaking things up, the Europeans are looking to ensure their interests are protected too.This week at Paris, “hundreds of corporate chiefs and lobby groups from France, Germany and Italy gathered to discuss just that,” the Times says. A “wake-up call” is how these leaders described Trump’s election, the Times reports, urging “Europe to get its house in order — or face a painful economic fallout.” Some of the ideas being discussed — increased defense and technology investment, along with lower regulation — sound promising.That’s especially true in light of the growing awareness of how far Europe’s economy has fallen vis-à-vis America’s in recent years. This in part reflects the web of regulation spun across the continent by the mandarins at Brussels, as well as the predilection of Europe’s powers for generous welfare states paid for with high taxes. The International Monetary Fund is warning of the “lack of business dynamism” on the continent, the Financial Times reports.That’s the context in which the French prime minister, Michel Barnier, called Friday for “a European awakening.” He contended “we have been fairly naïve,” adding, “today, we need to start saying, ‘Europe First.’” In the shadow of the Eiffel Tower, the Times reports, the head of France’s biggest trade group, Medef, pointed to Trump’s return and said “Europe has two months to get ready. After that, there will be a shock.”Europe’s new economic assertiveness could well be accompanied by a resurgence of the continent’s defense capabilities. Senator Vance has groused that America’s “security blanket,” under the umbrella of the North Atlantic pact, “has allowed European security to atrophy.” Faced with Russian aggression in Ukraine, President Macron now avers that “we need to be able to defend ourselves,” and warning Europe against being a “herbivore” amid “carnivores.”Whether Mr. Macron’s pledge has any, as it were, teeth, is far from certain. Europe has been vowing to boost its defense spending for years, with little to show for it until Trump pressed the point. It’s not hard to imagine that a reawakening of Europe’s economic and military ambitions could have unexpected consequences. Could a decades-long strategic and economic partnership fall prey to a revived transatlantic rivalry, as both sides vie to be “First”?

‘Europe First’?

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