For the First Time in 2024, Betting Markets Flip in Favor of Harris Over Trump in November
Bettors see Vice President Harris increasingly as the likely winner of the 2024 election.
Betting markets are beginning to flip for Vice President Harris for the first time in the campaign with bettors now seeing Ms. Harris as likely to win over President Trump.
Political betting markets allow bettors to wager on the outcome of elections or other political events, like a vice presidential choice. Although they’re not necessarily predictive of election outcomes they often reflect shifts in perceptions about the race.
On PredictIt Thursday morning, bettors are buying and selling shares predicting Ms. Harris wins the election for 53 cents and selling shares predicting a Trump victory for 49 cents.
This represents a shift from July 30, when shares for Ms. Harris were selling for 49 cents and shares for Trump were selling for 53 cents each.
Other betting markets like Smarkets continue to favor Trump, with bettors there giving Trump a 54 percent chance of victory to Ms. Harris’s 43 percent chance.
The switch represents a significant shift since President Biden dropped out of the race, when the Smarkets market gave Trump a 61 percent chance of winning and Ms. Harris a 29 percent chance.
