President Bush may bow to political pressure from within America and agree to direct talks with a nuclear-armed North Korea, according to a former State Department employee and specialist on Kim Jong Il’s regime.

“President Bush doesn’t change his policy because of external pressure,” Kenneth Quinones, 63, said in an interview on Jeju island, South Korea. “If he’s going to change in the near future, it’s because of domestic political pressure.”

American officials have refused North Korea’s demands for bilateral talks, urging the Asian nation to return to six-nation negotiations on ending its weapons program that have been suspended since November last year. North Korea announced on October 9 that it had detonated a nuclear bomb.

Failure by the Republican Party to keep control of Congress in elections on November 7 will probably encourage Mr. Bush to begin direct negotiations, according to Mr. Quinones, a former State Department director of North Korean affairs. Democratic candidates are backed by 53% of likely voters, according to a Newsweek poll of 1,002 people, conducted between October 19 and 20 with a margin of error of 4%.

“In Washington, surprisingly, there is within the Republican Party growing pressure on Bush to show flexibility,” Mr. Quinones said. “If the Republicans lose, then yes, I have no doubt Bush will show greater flexibility.”

A professor of Korean Studies at Japan’s Akita International University, Mr. Quinones was involved in so-called back-channel talks between the State Department and North Korea’s delegation to the United Nations till February this year. He was in South Korea last week to give a lecture.

“President Bush’s whole claim of ‘I want a peaceful diplomatic solution, but I won’t negotiate’ — it’s a total contradiction,” Mr. Quinones said. “You can’t have one without the other.”

The commander of the U.S. Forces Korea and the United Nations Command, General Burwell Bell, also urged North Korea to return to talks.

“I hope for a peaceful and diplomatic resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue,”General Bell told reporters at a briefing held at the Yongsan Eighth U.S. Army base in Seoul yesterday. “If deterrence fails, and North Korea attacks the Republic of Korea, the ROK-U.S. alliance will quickly and decisively defeat any aggression.”

“Moderate right-wing factions” including a former secretary of state, James Baker, and President George H. W. Bush will urge the administration to meet with the North, Mr. Quinones said.

One possible compromise is over $24 million of North Korean funds frozen at Banco Delta Asia in Macau, China, after the U.S. Treasury Department in September last year designated the lender as a money-laundering threat, Mr. Quinones said.

North Korea offered to transfer the money to a New York account, allowing America to monitor its distribution, according to Mr. Quinones.

“The Treasury Department flatly rejected the idea,” Mr. Quinones said, without specifying where he obtained the information. “If it comes to a choice between Washington accepting that compromise and allowing the transfer of funds, or war, everybody will push Washington to take the compromise offer.”

Mr. Quinones said he does not expect Japan, Taiwan, or South Korea to begin nuclear weapons programs while the international community to trying to revive negotiations.

“If the six-party talks completely collapse, then we could see an unraveling of the present balance of power.”