Four Years Into Ukraine, War, Kyiv Relies on Technology To Counter Russia’s Artillery Superiority

In a cramped medical evacuation unit somewhere in the Donbas, Ostap Mokryk works around the clock to save soldiers’ lives. The orthopedic surgeon from Lviv has transformed his peacetime skills into a wartime necessity, building a field evacuation system from almost nothing. Four years into the war, through donated funds and sheer determination, he commands two evacuation vehicles racing wounded soldiers from frontline positions before Russian artillery finds them. His wife, Valentina, who was once a dog trainer, now volunteers on the front lines.“Four years, four long years, this madness continues; a huge number of crippled lives, broken destinies, bombed houses. For what? It doesn’t fit in my head,” Dr. Mokryk tells The New York Sun. “We didn’t go to war against our neighbors and didn’t encroach on their land, but we must defend ourselves at any cost. We are defending not only ourselves, our women and children, but also fighting against imperialism, hegemony, and autocracy.”As President Trump delivered his State of the Union address on the war’s fourth anniversary on February 24, his remarks offered little hope that such sacrifices will end soon. The president made only a passing reference to the conflict, saying his administration is “working very hard to end” the war where “25,000 soldiers are dying every month,” but provided no vision for a resolution beyond the administration’s pressure on Kyiv to accept territorial concessions. Now, amid the escalating U.S.-Israel war against Iran, which has spiked global oil prices, the Trump administration has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil. This provides Russia with potential extra revenue to fund its Ukraine operations.Ukraine, meanwhile, actively supports the United States by sending experts, interceptor drones, and technology to counter Iranian Shahed drones threatening American bases and Gulf allies — drawing on its extensive experience defending against the same Russian-used systems.Russia, by contrast, is reported to be backing Iran by providing intelligence-sharing on American targets and advanced drone tactics honed in Ukraine.The Artillery RevolutionWith extra cash flowing in from higher oil prices and eased sanctions, Russia has more money to pour into artillery shells and other war materiel.Russia’s artillery ammunition production has increased more than seventeenfold since 2021, rising to about 7 million shells, mortar rounds and rockets in 2025 compared to roughly 400,000 rounds a year previously, according to Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service.Yet the production numbers tell only part of the story. “The artillery number is an old and out-of-context talking point,” the managing director of defense at the Warriner Group, Will Semmes, tells The New York Sun. “The real story is that North Korea now supplies about 40 percent of Russia’s artillery ammunition, freeing Russian industry to build drones and missiles instead.” More troubling still, Mr. Semmes notes that thousands of North Korean workers are now in Russian drone factories learning the technology. “This is a proliferation problem, not a production problem,” he tells the Sun.North Korea has deployed approximately 12,000 workers to Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, where Moscow produces its Shahed-136 and Geran-2 attack drones. The workers, contracted through North Korea’s Jihyang Technology Trade Company, a front for the sanctioned Green Pine Associated Corporation, labor in 12-hour shifts for approximately $2.50 per hour, with most earnings confiscated by the Pyongyang regime.Yet the real payment comes in the form of knowledge transfer. Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russia is helping North Korea establish domestic production of long-range strike drones, fundamentally altering the military balance on the Korean Peninsula. North Korean forces have already gained battlefield experience operating drones in Kursk Oblast, where approximately 11,000 North Korean troops conduct artillery strikes and aerial reconnaissance under Russian command. About 3,000 battle-tested soldiers have returned to North Korea as military instructors, bringing modern warfare expertise back to Pyongyang’s armed forces.The strategic implications extend far beyond Ukraine. North Korea has already demonstrated its ability to reverse-engineer American drone technology, producing copies of the MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-4 Global Hawk equipped with imitations of Hellfire missiles. Kim Jong Un has ordered “full-scale mass production” of AI-enabled suicide drones, emphasizing that drone proliferation “urgently calls for updating many parts of military theory.” Reports indicate Russia is sharing technology for jam-resistant, AI-guided drones capable of precision strikes without GPS — capabilities that could overwhelm South Korean and Japanese defenses with cheap, mass-produced systems costing $30,000 to $80,000 each.American defense planners view this technology transfer as a critical national security threat. North Korea could soon produce hundreds of attack drones monthly, fundamentally changing deterrence calculations across Northeast Asia. Worse still, Pyongyang has shown a willingness to export military technology to American adversaries, including Iran and its proxy forces, potentially spreading Russian-refined drone capabilities throughout the Middle East.The urgency stems from watching these tactics succeed in Ukraine, where Russia has transformed drone-artillery integration into a science.Russian forces have integrated Soviet-era artillery doctrine with cutting-edge drone technology to create reconnaissance-fire systems that can complete targeting cycles in three minutes when radar and unmanned aerial vehicles work together. “The war scenario and tactics have changed dramatically, obviously, because of the drone kill zone conditions,” a senior adviser to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tells the Sun on conduction of anonymity. “There’s been a shift to smaller groups with hybrid combined artillery and drone operations. I would emphasize drones here. Drone power is, I’d be very surprised if we ever see large-scale assaults like hundred-vehicle columns as before, in the age of drones.”Russia, however, hasn’t abandoned mass assault tactics entirely. “Russia isn’t choosing between infiltration and mass assault; it does both,” Mr. Semmes says. “The current doctrine combines infantry, FPV drones, and glide bombs as an integrated system.”This integrated approach represents a fundamental shift from the war’s opening phases. Where Russia once relied on massed armored columns that Ukrainian forces destroyed with anti-tank weapons, Moscow now employs what military analysts describe as a combined-arms template: systematic degradation of Ukrainian logistics through drone and glide bomb strikes, followed by small infantry groups that exploit weakened defenses. Russian forces launch up to 350 FPV drones per day against single highways, while conducting 200 to 250 glide bomb strikes daily — a campaign that has forced Ukrainian logistics to relocate 10 kilometers farther behind the front lines.The result is grinding positional warfare where neither side can achieve a breakthrough, but Russia’s willingness to accept catastrophic casualties allows incremental advances measured in meters per day.The shift has dramatically extended timelines. Russian forces now require months to capture what they once expected to seize in days, even if it means mass casualties. Mr. Putin tolerates such losses because they come overwhelmingly from Russia’s ethnic minorities, prisoners, and economic migrants — populations Moscow considers expendable. At the same time, elites in the capital who could threaten his rule have been shielded from the war’s human cost. State-controlled media never discuss casualty figures, and the Kremlin avoids politically risky mass mobilization by offering signing bonuses up to $50,000 that represent life-changing sums for families in Russia’s poorest regions. By recruiting approximately 30,000 to 35,000 soldiers monthly, roughly matching the casualty rate, and framing the war as an existential struggle against the West, Mr. Putin sustains grinding attrition warfare indefinitely.Ukraine’s Breaking PointThis calculated ruthlessness exploits Ukraine’s fundamental vulnerability: While Russia can replace losses through financial incentives and coercion, Kyiv cannot match Moscow’s tolerance for casualties.Ukrainian officials assert Russia’s artillery fire ratio advantage has decreased from 10-to-1 in early 2024 to 1.5-2:1 as of early 2025, according to Congressional testimony. Yet Ukraine’s critical shortage isn’t shells but soldiers.“The infantry shortage is structural. Ukraine burned through its training base early, and mobilization has relied on coercion, with desertion doubling in 2024, apparently,” Mr. Semmes explains. Ukrainian strategists believe this workforce deficit can become leverage if Kyiv raises Russia’s casualty rate faster than Moscow can recruit replacements.“The current pace of operations actually depends on how many soldiers they mobilize,” the Zelenskyy adviser underscores. “If Ukraine is successful, and it should be successful, the Russian pace will depend on human capital, rather than artillery.” Despite Russia’s numerical advantages, the war’s evolution toward drone-dominated battlefields has created tactical opportunities for Ukraine’s smaller but more technologically adaptive force.The deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, John Hardie, tells the Sun that now “the most critical determinant is superiority in tactical drones.”“Russia’s reliance on small-unit action reflects an inability to scale offensive operations,” Mr. Hardie observes. In practice, this means Russia can grind forward through small infiltrations but cannot achieve the kind of rapid breakthrough that would collapse Ukraine’s defensive lines. Countering this requires Ukraine to maintain drone superiority, detecting and destroying Russian infiltration teams before they can consolidate positions, while using long-range strikes to degrade the logistics networks that sustain Russia’s grinding advance.The Negotiation DilemmaUkraine’s strategy hinges on brutal arithmetic: Can Kyiv kill Russian soldiers faster than Moscow can recruit them? “Ukraine is betting that despite its serious shortage of infantry, it can continue to hold Russia to minor gains and eventually exhaust Russian offensive potential, mainly relying on drones of various types as well as artillery and mines, while inflicting rising costs with long-range strikes,” says Mr. Hardie. The Ukrainians claim to have raised Russia’s casualty rate above its recruitment rate in December and January. “If that’s true and that trend continues, it could force Moscow to choose between scaling back its offensive operations or conducting another round of forced mobilization, which the Kremlin has avoided due to its political and economic risks,” Mr. Hardie continues. This represents Ukraine’s best path to leverage: making the war so costly that Mr. Putin faces domestic political pressure.Yet the vulnerability is stark. A single policy shift in Washington or disruption in Western technology supplies could cripple Ukraine’s drone production, erasing its technological edge and leaving Ukrainian forces exposed to Russia’s superior numbers. “The most worrying thing is not whether they’re going to sustain pace or not; it’s that that change can be undone overnight,” the Zelenskyy adviser warns. For Ukrainian soldiers, ceasefire negotiations generate skepticism rather than hope. The Zelenskyy adviser estimates “only 30 to 40 percent chances of success” for peace talks. Recent negotiations have centered on a 20-point framework that Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelenskyy claim is 95 percent complete. Still, the thorniest issue continues to be territory — particularly Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede the Donbas region.“There is thus a yawning chasm between Putin’s maximalist demands and his military means,” Mr. Hardie notes. “Nevertheless, he has shown no appetite for significant compromise, apparently still believing he can eventually grind down Ukraine’s will and ability to resist.” Put simply, Mr. Putin demands Ukraine surrender territories Russia hasn’t fully conquered and may never be able to seize militarily. Yet he refuses to negotiate seriously because he believes time favors Moscow.“If we find some grounds for a ceasefire, we’ll be stuck with a country and economy on a war footing,” the adviser cautions. “And knowing Russia’s ambitions and how they operate, I’m not sure that genie is going to stay in the bottle.”Meanwhile, the American-Israeli war against Iran is boosting Mr. Putin: Soaring oil prices from disrupted supplies, plus temporary waivers easing restrictions on Russian oil sales, are pouring extra billions into Moscow’s coffers, funding more artillery and sustaining the Ukraine war. At the same time, America’s attention and resources are pulled to the Middle East, while Russia quietly aids Iran with intelligence on American targets — reducing pressure on Mr. Putin and letting him strengthen his hand in Ukraine.At this point, Mr. Semmes sees no solution short of regime change.“The real question nobody’s answering: what prevents Russia from using a ceasefire to rebuild and attack again in five years? History says he will. The only way out of this for Russia is Putin’s death,” he says.

Four Years Into Ukraine, War, Kyiv Relies on Technology To Counter Russia’s Artillery Superiority

Four Years Into Ukraine, War, Kyiv Relies on Technology To Counter Russia’s Artillery Superiority

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