Talarico Up Seven Over Paxton With Registered Voters, Two Points Up Among Likely Voters: Fox Poll

Hopes of Texas turning blue this year are likely growing now that a new poll from Fox, one of the highest-rated pollsters in the country, has Democratic state representative James Talarico up seven points over GOP state attorney general Ken Paxton in the 2026 Senate race among registered voters. Mr. Talarico leads by a much narrower margin — two points — among likely voters. Mr. Talarico has consistently led Mr. Paxton in the polls throughout the summer, after Mr. Paxton beat out Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. Mr. Paxton’s campaign has been buoyed by more than $100 million in outside spending from national Republican groups, including committees tied to Senate GOP leadership and President Trump. National Democratic committees, though, have largely stayed away from the Texas contest, given his ability to raise money on his own and the necessity of using money to flip easier Senate seats, like the ones in Ohio, North Carolina, and Alaska. This week, however, one of the main outside spending groups for Senate Democrats — Senate Majority PAC — set up an affiliate committee to begin running anti-Paxton digital ads. The total dollar figure of the ad buy is not yet public. The Fox poll released Thursday night shows Mr. Talarico with a much higher favorability rating than Mr. Paxton, who was previously charged with securities fraud and impeached by his fellow Republicans in the Texas house of representatives. The felony charges were later resolved with a pretrial agreement and the state senate acquitted Mr. Paxton on allegations of bribery and retribution against subordinates. Among likely voters whom pollsters pressed to answer the question even if they were not fully decided, Mr. Talarico leads Mr. Paxton, 51 percent to 49 percent. Among registered voters, Mr. Talarico leads by seven points, 53 percent to 46 percent. The registered voter lead is especially positive for Mr. Talarico given that he only led Mr. Paxton by three points in the last Fox poll of registered voters. The margin of error for the poll is 2.5 points. Mr. Paxton is clearly suffering due to the personal scandals that have plagued him before. Mr. Talarico has a net favorable rating of eight points, with 52 percent of likely voters holding a positive view of him, compared to only 44 percent who say they have an unfavorable view. Mr. Paxton’s favorable rating is 18 points underwater among likely voters, with 40 percent having a favorable view of him and 58 percent having an unfavorable view. Governor Greg Abbott’s lead, meanwhile, is outside of the margin of error in the poll, signifying that some of Mr. Talarico’s own supporters are willing to stick by the governor but will not support Mr. Paxton. Mr. Abbott leads his Democratic opponent by five points among likely voters.

Talarico Up Seven Over Paxton With Registered Voters, Two Points Up Among Likely Voters: Fox Poll

Talarico Up Seven Over Paxton With Registered Voters, Two Points Up Among Likely Voters: Fox Poll

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