Gold-Standard Election Forecasters Move Texas and Iowa Senate Races to ‘Toss Up’ Category

Democrats’ chances of winning this year’s U.S. Senate races in Texas and Iowa are improving, according to one of the nation’s top-rated election forecasting firms. The Cook Political Report on Thursday moved the races into the “toss up” category even though President Trump won both states by double digits in 2024. At the beginning of 2025, it appeared that Democrats had incredibly slim chances of winning the U.S. Senate majority this year, given that there is only one GOP lawmaker — Senator Susan Collins — up for re-election in a state carried by Vice President Harris in the last presidential race. As the months have gone on, however, Mr. Trump’s approval rating has fallen into the mid-30s, voters’ opinions of his economic management have turned decisively negative, and Democratic Senate candidates are raising money hand over fist. In order to win the majority, Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats while also holding on to their two seats which are in states carried by Mr. Trump in 2024 — Michigan and Georgia. While the Texas and Iowa seats were not originally on Democrats’ top target list for this year, the change from the Cook Political Report is likely to prompt even more investment in the two states.“Senate Democrats have built the strongest map we’ve had in years by competing everywhere, even in red states,” the minority leader, Senator Chuck Schumer, said in a statement Thursday. “We have the candidates, the message, and now— we have the map.”“Republicans spent years counting on this Senate majority. On November 3, Democrats are going to take it from them,” Mr. Schumer said. In its analysis of the Texas and Iowa contests, the Cook Political Report says that the GOP retains “a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map” nationally. The firm estimates, however, that Democrats could be on track for a wave midterm performance “akin to 2006” — a year which saw Democrats win both the Senate and House majorities by picking up five seats in the Senate and more than 30 seats in the House. The Cook Political Report writes that “on paper” the Texas and Iowa races should be “extraordinarily difficult” for Democrats to flip. The firm argues, however, that it is “increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive” than one would expect. Mr. Schumer believes that his path to another Senate majority runs through four states — Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska. After the original candidate, Graham Platner, was forced from the Maine race following an accusation of rape, Democrats quickly unified around a progressive former state senate president, Troy Jackson, who has raised millions of dollars for the campaign and now leads Ms. Collins in the polls. In North Carolina, a popular former governor, Roy Cooper, is expected to coast to victory as he maintains significant polling and fundraising leads over his GOP opponent. Two former members of Congress — Senator Sherrod Brown and Congresswoman Mary Peltola — have also consistently held polling leads over their respective challengers in Ohio and Alaska, as well. The Texas and Iowa races are now likely to draw even more attention as the two Democratic nominees in those states — state representatives James Talarico and Josh Turek — hold their own in polling and dominate their Republican counterparts in fundraising. According to the most recent FEC filings, Mr. Talarico has raised nearly $70 million for his campaign, ending the last quarter with more than $20 million in his account. Mr. Paxton, meanwhile, has raised less than $10 million and had only $1.7 million for his campaign at the end of June. Polling aggregators give Mr. Talarico a lead of anywhere from one to two points over Mr. Paxton. In Iowa, Mr. Turek is trailing his Republican opponent, Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, narrowly in the polls. Ms. Hinson leads by just about one point, according to polling aggregators. She has also outraised Mr. Turek, with just over $6.7 million in her campaign account as of the last filing deadline, compared to the $2.3 million in Mr. Turek’s account.

Gold-Standard Election Forecasters Move Texas and Iowa Senate Races to ‘Toss Up’ Category

Gold-Standard Election Forecasters Move Texas and Iowa Senate Races to ‘Toss Up’ Category

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