A political analysis outlet, highly respected by Democrats and Republicans alike, says four New York congressional districts are now more likely to be won by Democrats than previously believed. The districts, which span from Syracuse to Nassau County, could be critical to Democrats retaking the House this year. 

The Cook Political Report is well-known by experts and reporters as an outlet that fairly — and often very accurately — predicts which party will control which seat in the coming congressional elections. Dave Wasserman, the outlet’s senior editor, released the tranche of new race ratings on Thursday, in which analysts put districts in a “lean,” “likely,” or “solid” column for one of the parties. Districts may also go in a “toss-up” column.

On Thursday, four New York seats were included in the updated Cook Political Report ranking — New York’s Fourth, which covers Nassau County; New York’s 17th, which is anchored in Rockland and Westchester Counties; New York’s 18th, which covers the Hudson Valley in Orange, Ulster, and Dutchess Counties; and New York’s 22nd, which covers Onondaga County. 

All four of those seats have moved more into the Democratic column, according to the Cook Political Report. The 18th and 22nd districts are now solidly Democratic after previously being only “likely” Democratic. The Fourth district goes into the “lean” Democratic column, despite having been in the toss-up category until now. The 17th district — the only one represented by a Republican — is now a toss-up seat. It was previously in analysts’ “lean Republican” column.

With a mere three-seat majority in the House, Speaker Mike Johnson has to run the table in order to hold on to his gavel following November’s midterm elections. Not being able to flip one competitive Democratic seat in New York — or worse, lose some of his vulnerable colleagues on Long Island or just north of New York City — would spell disaster for him on election night. 

“Ten months out from Election Day, it’s increasingly clear that Democrats are in a strong position to win control of the House this November,” Cook Political Report’s Eric Covey writes in her analysis. “All the major indicators — the president’s unpopularity, special election results and the generic congressional ballot — point to a favorable environment for Democrats.”

“Even if Democrats lose some of their own members defending particularly difficult seats, the number of Republicans in peril should give Democrats more than enough opportunities to win 218 seats,” she continues. 

President Trump is seemingly more nervous about the prospect of losing the House this November, warning lawmakers that he will be impeached if Democrats take control. 

“You gotta win the midterms because if we don’t win the midterms it’s just gonna be — I mean, they’ll find a reason to impeach me,” Mr. Trump told House Republicans during a speech earlier this month. “I’ll get impeached.” Democrats have also promised significant investigations into Mr. Trump’s personal and family business dealings — including his sons’ cryptocurrency venture. 

Republicans had hoped that they may be able to pick off some Democrats in New York this year. The two Democrats they were likely to most aggressively challenge are Congressman John Mannion and Congresswoman Laura Gillen, who represent the 22nd and Fourth districts, respectively. Both lawmakers flipped Republican seats to the Democratic Party in 2024. 

Mr. Mannion was more likely to survive of those two lawmakers, considering his district was drawn to be more Democratic ahead of the 2024 election. Vice President Kamala Harris won his district by eight points. 

Ms. Harris only won Ms. Gillen’s district by one point, however. Ms. Gillen knocked off Congressman Anthony D’Esposito, who was facing ethical questions after he reportedly hired both his fiancée’s daughter to work for him as well as another woman with whom he was allegedly having an affair. Ms. Gillen defeated Mr. D’Esposito by only two points in 2024. 

She has yet to draw a strong challenger for his seat this year, though Nassau County’s popular executive, Bruce Blakeman, is likely to give Republicans a boost on Long Island with his gubernatorial campaign. The only person to have publicly expressed interest in running against Ms. Gillen so far is Mr. D’Esposito, who currently serves as the Labor Department’s inspector general.