Republicans, desperate to maintain their majority in the House, are strategizing to flip two congressional seats on Long Island — and they think a “Long Island boy,” Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman at the top of the ticket will help.  

President Trump endorsed Mr. Blakeman for New York State governor in late December, one day after Congresswoman Elise Stefanik announced she was dropping out of the race and would retire from Congress at the end of her term. Several GOP insiders who spoke with The New York Sun expressed shock at Ms. Stefanik’s abrupt announcement, though there had been rumblings behind the scenes after Mr. Trump declined to endorse her.

The two House seats in question are both in Nassau County and held by moderate Democrats, Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen. Yet this is Mr. Blakeman’s home turf, and GOP insiders think turnout for Mr. Blakeman — and against Governor Kathy Hochul and her Democratic ally, Mayor Zohran Mamdani — could help tip these races in their favor.

“Part of Trump’s calculation is those two seats,” a Democratic strategist, Hank Sheinkopf, tells the Sun about why Mr. Trump likely endorsed Mr. Blakeman and held off from weighing in when Ms. Stefanik was still in the race. “The other part of Trump’s calculation is the higher probability of winning New York, and Blakeman has a higher probability of winning, frankly, than Stefanik did. Why? She’s too far to the right and entirely identified with Trump.”

Mr. Blakeman won reelection as Nassau County Executive in November by 12 points and helped Republicans sweep other races on the island — a bright spot for the GOP in a year when Mr. Mamdani won the New York City mayoral race, Democrats made substantial gains upstate, and Democratic candidates overperformed in gubernatorial and special elections across the county.

Unlike Ms. Stefanik, Mr. Blakeman is pro-choice and used to running in a purple bellwether part of the state. Democratic registrations still outnumber Republicans in Nassau County, but the two counties on the island, excluding Queens and Brooklyn, are turning redder. More than 20 percent of the state’s votes in the last two election cycles hailed from the suburban districts of Suffolk and Nassau.

Long Island is becoming a power center of the state party. Nassau County Republican Committee chairman, Joe Cairo, tells the Sun he will announce soon that the party’s state convention this year will be held at the Garden City Hotel in Nassau. 

“Being a Long Island boy, I think he’s going to greatly help both Suffolk and Nassau Counties, and specifically the third and fourth congressional districts,” Mr. Cairo tells the Sun of Mr. Blakeman. “These are races we feel we can win.”

Mr. Trump is focused on retaining Republican control of the House, urging congressional Republicans on Tuesday to fight. “You gotta win the midterms ’cause, if we don’t win the midterms, it’s just gonna be – I mean, they’ll find a reason to impeach me,” Mr. Trump told lawmakers at a Republican House retreat in Washington. “I’ll get impeached.”

Mr. Trump’s agenda in the second half of his administration is also at stake. Republicans hold a majority by only a handful of seats, several GOP members of Congress are retiring, and the party out of power traditionally wins seats in the midterm elections. California’s redistricting and the death of a Republican congressman from northern California, Doug LaMalfa, this week further hurt the GOP’s chances of holding the House.

Ms. Gillen’s seat in New York’s fourth congressional district is one of only five “toss up” Democratically held seats in Congress this year, according to the Cook Political Report. A freshman House member, Ms. Gillen flipped the seat blue in 2024. 

Cook rates Mr. Suozzi’s seat in the third congressional district as “lean D,” though “it’s plausible that this race eventually makes its way to the Toss Up column.” The district straddles the north shore of Long Island and parts of outer Queens. 

The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting Ms. Gillen’s and Mr. Suozzi’s seats, trying to paint both Democratic incumbents as having closer ties to groups associated with New York City’s new Democratic Socialist mayor than meets the eye. A NRCC spokeswoman, Maureen O’Toole, points to Mr. Suozzi’s and Ms. Gillen’s association with the progressive, anti-Trump activist group, Indivisible, which endorsed Mr. Mamdani and congratulated both Mr. Suozzi and Ms. Gillen on their wins in 2024. Mr. Suozzi ran jointly on the Democratic and Working Families Party line in 2020, though he dropped his association with WFP for his run in 2024.

“Two-Faced Tom Suozzi and Lying Laura Gillen are desperate to distance themselves from socialist Zohran Mamdani because they know he’s political poison on Long Island. Unfortunately for them, they’ve made their bed by spending years bowing down to the radical people and policies Mamdani espouses, and now it’s time they lie in it,” Ms. O’Toole tells the Sun.

It will be difficult, though, for Republicans to brandish Mr. Suozzi or Ms. Gillen as far left. Ms. Gillen broke with her party to vote for the Laken Riley Act and has been outspoken in her criticism of Mr. Mamdani. She released a statement after Mr. Mamdani won the Democratic mayoral primary, calling out his “unacceptable antisemitic comments”  and saying he is “too extreme to lead New York City.”

“Gillen has a really long history of bipartisanship, even before she entered elected office,” a Democratic operative tells the Sun. “Bruce Blakeman endorsed her first run for Hempstead town supervisor.”

Mr. Blakeman did endorse Ms. Gillen in 2017 amid a local intra-party fight. At the time, Mr. Blakeman said of Ms. Gillen, “I am confident in her.”

Mr. Blakeman did not return the Sun’s request for comment.

Mr. Suozzi is also a self-styled moderate and co-chairman of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. He penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal criticizing then-candidate Mamdani and calling his primary win “a loud wake-up call for the Democratic Party.”

Mr. Suozzi’s GOP challenger is a pro-Trump veteran and attorney, Gregory Hach, who is attacking the Democratic incumbent for his support of a federal tax on those making over $400,000 and for topping even former Speaker Nancy Pelosi in his stock portfolio performance last year. No serious GOP contender has declared in the race against Ms. Gillen. Mr. Cairo tells the Sun he will announce the candidates he’s backing in both races in the next few days. 

Mr. Blakeman has an uphill battle ahead of him. A Siena poll released in early December, before Ms. Stefanik dropped out, shows Mr. Blakeman trailing Ms. Hochul 25 to 50 percent, with 21 percent undecided. Mr. Blakeman is a relative unknown to voters outside Long Island.

Not since Governor George Pataki won his third term in 2002 has a Republican won a statewide race in New York. Mr. Pataki won his first term in 1994 against Governor Mario Cuomo, part of that year’s “Republican Revolution.” The winds don’t look as favorable to Republicans this year, though what happens in New York City over the next nine months — and how Ms. Hochul responds — is a wild card. 

“We look forward to Bruce helping our down ballot candidates absolutely, but also having a big victory despite the odds,” Mr. Cairo says.