Handicappers Now See North Carolina, Previously Thought a Lost Cause for Democrats, as a Toss Up

Some expert political handicappers now see North Carolina — a competitive state that has long eluded national Democrats — as a toss-up. This would make it the seventh of the swing states – a group whose electoral votes are likely to decide the 2024 presidential election.The editors of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics now see North Carolina as a “toss up” on the presidential level, shifting its rating from “leans Republican.”Of the seven states in 2020 that had a margin of victory of less than 3 points, North Carolina was the only state President Trump carried, with President Biden winning Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. In 2016, Trump won all of those states except for Nevada.When Mr. Biden was the presumptive nominee for Democrats, it appeared that North Carolina was a lost cause for the Democrats, with some polls showing Trump up by as much as 9 points in a head to head against Mr. Biden.Since Vice President Harris became the presumptive nominee for Democrats, however, the race has tightened up both nationally and in North Carolina with a recent survey by Focaldata finding Ms. Harris leading by 1 point among likely voters.In their analysis the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball compares the situation in North Carolina to that of Georgia, the only other southeastern swing state, and one that also has growing metropolitan areas and a large Black population.North Carolina also has a gubernatorial race this year in which the moderate Democratic attorney general, Josh Stein, who is Jewish, is running against the lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, who is Black, to replace the two-term Democratic governor, Roy Cooper.Mr. Stein, who hails from Chapel Hill and attended Ivy League schools, is leading Mr. Robinson, who has made controversial comments on social issues, in several polls, but North Carolina voters have a long history of splitting their tickets. The conservative state legislature has a GOP supermajority, while voters elected Mr. Cooper, a conservative Democrat, to two terms by a healthy margin.In Georgia in 2020, Mr. Biden won by winning the Atlanta metropolitan area, which accounts for 59 percent of the state’s total vote and a large Black population, by 16 points. Trump carried the rest of Georgia by 22 points.In North Carolina, a similar dynamic played out in that Mr. Biden carried the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham metropolitan areas, which account for 42 percent of the vote, by 14 points. Trump won the rest of the state by 13 points that year.Mr. Biden also carried the Greensboro-High Point-Winston-Salem area, though the area was broken up as a Metropolitan Statistical Area in 2003, and was lumped in with the rest of the state in their analysis.In the final tally, Mr. Biden won Georgia by less than a point and Trump won North Carolina by 1.3 points.“The larger Black population in Georgia paired with the stronger sway of Atlanta are a couple of points in favor of Georgia remaining slightly bluer than North Carolina,” Mr. Kondik writes. “All that said, both states are close enough—and similar enough to the other key swing states in this election—that we don’t think it makes sense to rate one as Toss-up and the other as Leans Republican anymore.”The change in North Carolina may also reflect a change across the country. Polling averages at RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Race to the White House all show Ms. Harris leading Trump in the average of polls in four of the seven swing states, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.These polling averages currently show Trump leading in Georgia and North Carolina as well. They are split on who is leading in Nevada.This is a marked shift from the final days of Mr. Biden’s candidacy, when Mr. Biden was trailing in all of the then six swing states, and North Carolina appeared to be uncompetitive this year for Democrats.Notably, polls currently show, on average, that North Carolina is polling more favorably for Democrats than Georgia, though it’s possible that this will change ahead of election day.Other handicappers such as the Cook Political Report still have North Carolina rated as leaning towards Republican, though it’s possible this could also change before election day.

Handicappers Now See North Carolina, Previously Thought a Lost Cause for Democrats, as a Toss Up

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