Harris Edges Out Trump in Swing States, Catches Up in National Polls

Vice President Harris is seeing better polling numbers versus President Trump ahead of the much-anticipated announcement of her veep pick and the Democratic National Convention.In Ms. Harris’s second week in the presidential race, her campaign is seeing more favorable polling, including from crucial swing states, where she has closed the gap with Trump.A Bloomberg and Morning Consult survey released Tuesday found that Ms. Harris’s entry into the race had erased Trump’s lead in five of the seven swing states the poll tracks.The survey found Ms. Harris is leading by 11 points in Michigan, 2 points in Nevada, 2 points in Arizona, 2 points in Wisconsin, and tied with Trump 47 percent to 47 percent in Georgia. Meanwhile, the survey found that Trump leads by 4 points in Pennsylvania and 2 points in North Carolina.The poll surveyed 4,973 registered voters between July 24 and 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.The swing in the swing states marks a dramatic shift from polling conducted in the final weeks of President Biden’s candidacy, which found that Trump led Mr. Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania while Mr. Biden led only in Michigan and Wisconsin.Other pollsters, like YouGov and the Economist, have also found Ms. Harris taking the lead in their national polls, with YouGov reporting that Ms. Harris is ahead of Trump 46 percent to 44 percent, a lead within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.Handicappers re-launching their polling averages have also noted a significant uptick in Ms. Harris’s polling numbers. Handicapper Nate Silver’s average, for instance, has Ms. Harris leading Trump 44.4 percent to 44.2 percent in the polls, a 1.7 point increase since last week.The Cook Political Report, which relaunched its polling average Wednesday, found Ms. Harris trailing Trump 46.2 percent to 47.5 percent nationally.Ms. Harris’s climb in the polls has been dismissed by some Republicans, like Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, as a “honeymoon.” Other critics in the press have suggested that it’s a “sugar high.”Politico reports that aides close to Ms. Harris say that, despite the Democratic hype around her candidacy, “She understands the gravity and excitement of the moment but also understands the work that needs to be done.”Regardless of whether Ms. Harris’s climb in the polls should be dismissed, as Trump’s allies insist, Ms. Harris is likely to enjoy more time in the spotlight next month.First, she is expected to announce her vice presidential pick ahead of the start of a barnstorming tour across the country, set to begin at Philadelphia on Tuesday. Second, the Democratic National Convention is set to begin August 19 at Chicago, and candidates typically enjoy a boost in the polls from their party’s convention.On average since 1964, Republican presidential nominees have seen a 4.4-point boost in head-to-head matchup polling after their convention. Democrats, on the other hand, have enjoyed just more than a 5-point boost on average.Nearly two weeks out from this year’s Republican National Convention, Trump’s polling has been mostly flat, with the Cook Political Report polling average tracking just a 0.3-point rise in his numbers against the Democrats, though it could potentially still manifest.

Harris Edges Out Trump in Swing States, Catches Up in National Polls

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