Harris Takes National Lead in New Gold-Star Poll Thanks to a Boost From Women, College Graduates

Vice President Harris is expanding her national lead over President Trump in a new poll from the New York Times and Siena College, which is viewed by experts as the best national pollster in America. The vice president’s strength comes mostly from her support among women, college graduates of all races, and young people. In the Times-Siena survey, Ms. Harris has a three-point lead over Trump nationally, 49 percent to 46 percent. In a multi-candidate field including the most well-known third party candidates, Ms. Harris still leads by three points, 47 percent to 44 percent. The vice president’s strength is largely drawn from her wide lead over Trump among women voters, those with college degrees, and young people. In 2020, President Biden won the support of women by an 11-point margin over Trump — 55 percent to 44 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. Now, the Times-Siena poll shows Ms. Harris leading Trump by 16 points among women nationally, with 56 percent saying they’ll back the vice president and just 40 percent saying they’ll back Trump. Ms. Harris has also opened a wide lead over Trump among voters of all races with bachelor’s degrees or more — maintaining a trend of white college graduates shifting sharply to the left. Among white voters with bachelor’s degrees or advanced degrees, she leads Trump by 23 points — 60 percent to 37 percent. Four years ago, Mr. Biden won the demographic by just nine points. Among non-white voters with undergraduate degrees or higher, the vice president leads by 39 points — 65 percent to 26 percent. Young people, too, have seemingly come home to the party after earlier expressing frustration with Mr. Biden. Trump, at one point, was within single digits of winning voters under 30 in his rematch with the incumbent president before the latter dropped his reelection bid. Mr. Biden won young voters by 20 points just four years ago, though Ms. Harris now leads Trump by 19 points. The Times and Siena College polled two individual states, Florida and Texas, to gauge both candidates’ strengths. In Texas, Ms. Harris is on track to do as well as her boss did in 2020, when Mr. Biden lost the state by only 5.5 points. In the Times-Siena survey, Ms. Harris is losing the state by six points to Trump. Florida, though, is a more interesting story for the former president. His adopted home state is breaking for him decisively, with 55 percent saying they’ll back Trump and just 41 percent saying they’ll vote for Ms. Harris. If that poll result turns out to be accurate, it would be the largest margin of victory for a Republican presidential candidate in the state since 1988. Trump’s strength in Florida, while impressive, may tell a larger story about the former president’s weakness in rust belt states. During and in the immediate aftermath of the Covid pandemic, hundreds of thousands of Americans fled their home states for Florida, which imposed few pandemic restrictions and has no state income tax. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin all saw thousands of possibly right-leaning voters flee their homes for Florida in recent years, according to census data, analyzed by the Orlando Sentinel. One Democratic strategist, Matt Isbell, describes the move as “the big sort,” referring to likely GOP voters leaving critical battleground states for more conservative policy under Governor DeSantis. “The notion of the ‘Big Sort’ … is really proving itself,” Mr. Isbell told the Sentinel. “That’s the idea that people move based on the politics. … For a lot of retirees, places like Florida are appealing, especially if they’re already conservative.”According to the political data firm L2, voters who moved to Florida are overwhelmingly conservative — by a margin of more than two-to-one. Since 2021, 49 percent of voters who moved to Florida from another state have registered with the GOP, while just 22 percent of new Florida residents registered as Democrats.

Harris Takes National Lead in New Gold-Star Poll Thanks to a Boost From Women, College Graduates

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