Harris Will Have More Opportunities Than Trump To Shine in Tuesday’s Debate

At their first and likely only meeting on a debate stage Tuesday night, President Trump and Vice President Harris will try to lay out compelling policy visions while portraying the other as an untrustworthy radical. In this situation, Ms. Harris has far more opportunities to gain in the polls than Trump does given that critical swing voters have said emphatically they don’t want to vote for the former president, yet aren’t sure yet they can get behind Ms. Harris. Trump and Ms. Harris will meet at the National Constitution Center for their debate hosted by ABC News on Tuesday, which was agreed to by both campaigns after Trump proposed three forums while Ms. Harris insisted there would only be one. The vice presidential debate on October 1 is expected to be the final debate of the election. Polling has shown a statistical tie between Trump and Ms. Harris both nationally and across the seven key battleground states. The vice president’s greatest asset isn’t her money, base enthusiasm, or endorsements from famous Republicans, but rather the fact she has remained undefined in the minds of many voters. While she has been harshly criticized for not releasing a detailed policy platform or sitting for interviews, swing voters don’t seem to blame her for dodging the spotlight. Rather, they just want to know more. According to a New York Times–Siena College poll released Sunday, a sizable number of voters from key demographics have yet to form an opinion of Ms. Harris, saying they want to know more about her before making any decisions. Those same voters say they’ve already made their minds up about Trump — arguably the most famous man in the world — and they are ready to learn more about the vice president. Among young voters, Hispanic voters, white voters without a college degree, independents, undecided 2024 voters, and likely voters who did not cast ballots in 2020, Ms. Harris enjoys a lack of definition, which could give her a certain amount of breathing room to make her case without these voters having a predisposition either for or against her. Among independents, less than one percent do not have a favorable or unfavorable view of Trump. Among the same demographic, 4.5 percent say the same of Ms. Harris. For voters who did not cast ballots four years ago, nine percent do not yet have a view one way or the other about Ms. Harris, compared to 4.5 percent who say the same of Trump. Where Ms. Harris really has room to grow is among the voters who are considering third party candidates this year. Of those Americans who say they plan to go to the polls, possibly for a third party, 19 percent say they do not have a favorable or unfavorable view of Ms. Harris, compared to 14 percent who say the same of Trump. Among Hispanics — a group with whom Trump has made gains and who are now poised to play a decisive role in Arizona and Nevada — Ms. Harris is also less known than Trump, giving her the opportunity to define herself. Among that group, 12 percent do not have a view of Ms. Harris, compared to just 4.5 percent who say the same of Trump. When likely voters were asked in the Times–Siena survey if they knew enough about the candidates to cast their ballots, Ms. Harris again proved herself to be more of an unknown than Trump, which could give her the opportunity to get undecided voters off the fence if she performs well on Tuesday. Just nine percent of respondents said they feel they “need to learn more” about Trump before making up their mind, compared to 28 percent who said the same of Ms. Harris.

Harris Will Have More Opportunities Than Trump To Shine in Tuesday’s Debate

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