High Oil Prices Mask Damage Caused to Russia’s Oil Industry

Ukraine, after years of firing Roman candles at Russian oil refineries, is radically sharpening the accuracy of its drones and missiles and increasing their punch. As a result, this spring Ukraine has hit the so-called brains of 10 Russian refineries, according to open source analysis group DniproOsint.Hitting an oil tank can yield an impressive fire video for the Internet. Hitting the brain, or Atmospheric-Vacuum Tube, will shut a refinery down. Yesterday, the Paris-based International Energy Agency reported Russia’s exports of refined oil products dropped by 13 percent in April, compared to March. Russia’s exports of oil products fell to 2.2 million barrels a day, the lowest level recorded for Russia by the intergovernmental group.For now, the Iran war is keeping oil prices above $100 a barrel. Russia is selling less for more. Earnings in April hit $19.2 billion, up almost 50 percent year over year. Yet reopening the Strait of Hormuz, possibly as a result of President Trump’s current trip to Communist China, could send oil prices back down to pre-war levels. This would expose Russia’s new vulnerability.Smoke rising from oil infrastructure at Tuapse in the southern Krasnodar region of Russia on April 16, 2026, after the town’s oil refinery and shipping terminal were attacked by Ukrainian drones multiple times in preceding weeks. Satellite image copyright 2026 Vantor via APTo lower prices now, the Trump Administration seeks to keep up world supply and asks Kyiv to spare Russia’s oil industry. But President Volodymyr Zelensky shows no sign of complying. Yesterday, in a display of Ukraine’s growing drone and missile capabilities, Kyiv hit a Russian oil loading terminal on the Black Sea, an oil refinery on the Volga, and a gas processing plant on the Caspian.The growing threat of Ukraine’s long-range drones was clear on Saturday at Russia’s “Victory Day” parade. For fear of drone attacks, the parade was stripped of tanks and missiles, its length was cut in half, to 45 minutes, and President Vladimir Putin arrived late and left early. “For the first time, Putin publicly showed his weakness and inability to independently protect his capital, his parade, and himself from our strikes,” Ukrainian analyst Anton Geraschenko tweeted. To compensate, Mr. Putin ordered a test launch on Wednesday of Russia’s “Sarmat” intercontinental ballistic missile. After the successful launch, he called it “the most powerful” missile in the world.Russian servicemen participate in the Victory Day military parade at Moscow on May 9, 2026. Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via APThen, yesterday through today, he rained down one of the heaviest drone and missile attacks on Ukraine of the war, now in its fifth year. Mr. Zelensky and Ukraine’s Air Force said that in the 24 hours ending this morning, Russia fired 1,560 drones and 97 missiles. Of 753 drones fired Wednesday, Ukraine shot down 94 percent, the Air Force said. However, over the 24 hours, dozens got through, hitting 180 sites, affecting power to half of Ukraine’s regions, killing at least three people and injuring scores.“These are definitely not the actions of those who believe the war is coming to an end,” Mr. Zelensky said. His foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, urged Mr. Trump and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, at Beijing to pressure Mr. Putin to make peace. He posted on X: “I am certain that the leaders of the United States and China have enough leverage over Moscow to tell Putin to finally end the war.”In this deadly tit for tat, Mr. Putin is reacting to the fact that the war is spilling over the border and that he can no longer protect his people. Yesterday, he replaced the governors of two border regions. In four other regions, the Ukrainian drone threat prompted school officials to switch this week to online learning. To calm citizens, the mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, banned posting on the Internet of any photos or videos of drone damage.“Russia’s sheer size once made it virtually impossible to conquer, but in an era where long-range precision weapons are increasingly accessible, the Putin regime is now discovering that this same attribute makes the country extremely difficult to defend,” the Atlantic Council Ukraine’s editor, Peter Dickinson, wrote yesterday. “With an airspace that spans eleven time zones and is almost 30 times larger than Ukraine’s, Russia is simply too big to be covered comprehensively.”President Vladimir Putin of Russia attends a ceremony to lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin wall at Moscow on May 9, 2026. Alexander Nemenov/Pool via APAir defense batteries are concentrated around Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Mr. Putin’s residences. Managers of billion-dollar refineries resort to instructing company security guards to fire automatic weapons at missiles that come in at 1,000 miles an hour. According to a tally maintained by Bloomberg, Ukrainian drones last month hit 21 Russian oil facilities, comprising refineries, pipelines, export terminals, and tankers at sea. Reflecting poor air defense, some targets were hit again and again. Almost 1,000 miles east of Ukraine, at Perm, one of Russia’s largest refineries is closed this week after three drone attacks in two weeks. At the Black Sea oil-exporting port of Tuapse, Ukrainian drones hit four times in 16 days.At the frontline, drones are making the war increasingly deadly. One by one, Russian soldiers are blown up by Ukrainian drones. The accuracy is such that Mr. Zelensky reported in March that two Russian soldiers are killed for each one wounded. Prior to the advent of drone warfare, the ratio was one killed for three wounded.Deaths by drones are almost always recorded by cameras. This leads Ukrainian war planners to say with confidence that they are killing 35,000 Russians a month, slightly more than monthly recruitments.President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine addresses the press at a meeting of European Union leaders at Ayia Napa, Cyprus, on April 23, 2026. Byron Smith/Getty Images“I’d like to see it stop. Russia-Ukraine. It’s the worst thing since World War II in terms of life. Twenty-five thousand young soldiers every month. It’s crazy,” Mr. Trump told reporters at Washington after negotiating a three-day ceasefire around the May 9 parade. Before flying to China, he said: “The end of the war in Ukraine I really think it’s getting very close.”For his part, Mr. Putin told reporters at Moscow: “I think things are coming to an end, but it’s still a serious thing.” The American-brokered peace talks, however, are on hold. Mr. Putin shows no sign of settling the military stalemate with a Korea-style armistice that would freeze the armies in place. Clutching at straws, Kremlinologists perked up Saturday, when Mr. Putin referred to Ukraine’s leader as “Mr. Zelensky.” In the past, Mr. Putin routinely referred in public to the Ukrainian leadership as “drug addicts and neo-Nazis.”This article was updated to reflect later developments.

High Oil Prices Mask Damage Caused to Russia’s Oil Industry

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