Inside the ELN: A Former Commander Explains Why Colombia’s Last Major Guerrilla Group Has Lost Its Way

BOGOTÁ — In a cluttered study overlooking the quiet edges of Colombia’s capital, León Valencia sits surrounded by books on Che Guevara and yellowed photographs from decades in the jungle. The 70-year-old political analyst pauses when asked about his years as a guerrilla fighter in the distant jungles, his mind drifting to the cassette tapes he once recorded for his children while living clandestinely as a member of the National Liberation Army’s central command.“We would record messages and send them back and forth,” Mr. Valencia tells the New York Sun. “It was the only way to maintain some connection to them while I was in the mountains.”Now one of Colombia’s most respected political analysts, Mr. Valencia has spent the past two decades founding the think tank PARES and authoring books on the country’s peace processes. His journey from guerrilla commander to public intellectual, however, offers a rare window into Colombia’s half-century of armed conflict and the complex political transitions now unfolding across Latin America.From Liberation Theology to Armed StruggleThe National Liberation Army, commonly known as the ELN, emerged in 1964 as Colombia was recovering from La Violencia, a decade-long civil war that killed over 200,000 people. A 1958 power-sharing agreement between the Liberal and Conservative parties excluded all other political movements, fueling resentment among those seeking change.Inspired by the Cuban Revolution, the ELN was formed by university students, Catholic priests, and intellectuals who believed armed struggle was the only path to transform a society marked by inequality and political exclusion. Unlike the larger FARC, which had peasant origins, the ELN drew from urban intellectual circles and the liberation theology movement.Mr. Valencia’s path to the guerrillas began in Antioquia’s coffee-growing region, where he was born in 1955. Involved in liberation theology as a young man, he found himself on a military death list at age 25. Of the 17 names on that list, 10 were already dead when he made his decision.He joined the ELN and rose to its central command, spending seven years in jungle camps. During his 15 years with the group, Mr. Valencia handled finances and connected the rebels to social movements. The ELN then commanded approximately 10,000 fighters with genuine hopes of governing Colombia.“We had the dream to govern the country one day, to arrive at the Casa de Nariño,” Mr. Valencia says, referring to Colombia’s presidential palace. “When we went into combat, it was always against the militaries or military locations. That was the nature of the conflict then.”The ELN worked throughout the 1980s to unify various guerrilla movements, including the FARC, M-19, and the Popular Liberation Army, and helped establish legal political parties like the Patriotic Union. The group financed itself through kidnappings, extortion, and attacks on oil infrastructure. Throughout the conflict, the ELN has been accused of killing civilians, recruiting children, and violating international humanitarian law. Guerrilla groups like the FARC, ELN, and M-19 killed more than 35,000 people according to Colombia’s National Center for Historic Memory, while Colombia’s overall conflict claimed approximately 220,000 deaths between 1964 and 2016. “We wanted to copy a little bit the case of El Salvador,” Mr. Valencia explains. In El Salvador, five guerrilla groups united as the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front in 1980 and fought a brutal civil war that killed an estimated 75,000 people over twelve years. The FMLN signed peace accords in 1992 and successfully transformed into a legal political party that eventually won the presidency in 2009. “We reached that goal and were part of the foundation of a communist political party,” Mr. Valencia continues. “But the price we had to pay was extremely high.”That price became unbearable by the mid-1990s. The ELN’s involvement in the killing of Jesus Emilio Jaramillo, the Bishop of Arauca, on the Venezuela border in 1989, proved a cracking point for Mr. Valencia, who had deep ties to the Catholic Church and liberation theology. The bishop was among the numerous clergy targeted during the conflict.“You can’t kill people simply because they might have connections to someone you oppose,” he says. “That’s when I began to question whether armed struggle could ever achieve what we claimed to want.”By 1994, Colombia’s conflict had already claimed approximately 220,000 lives, with guerrilla groups like the FARC, ELN, and M-19 responsible for more than 35,000 civilian deaths according to the National Center for Historic Memory. The violence showed no signs of abating.In 1994, Mr. Valencia signed a historic peace agreement with the Colombian government as leader of the Corriente de Renovación Socialista, a dissident faction of the ELN. Though only his faction participated, it was one of the first successful demobilizations of an ELN splinter group, with 730 people returning to civil life.“From some point on, I knew that fighting with arms wouldn’t be successful,” he continues. “That was the reason why I decided to get back into civil life.”The Patriotic Union, a communist party that emerged from peace negotiations between the FARC and the government, saw between 5,733 and 8,000 members assassinated by right-wing paramilitary groups funded by drug traffickers between 1984 and 2018. Mr. Valencia’s think tank later led research that resulted in the arrest of 89 members of parliament with proven ties to paramilitary mafias.“Former President Álvaro Uribe’s second-term victory was secured by approximately two million votes arranged by paramilitary groups financed by drug trafficking organizations,” he says. “That gives you an idea of how strong organized crime’s involvement in our politics has been.”Yet the survivors persisted. In 2022, Colombia elected Gustavo Petro as its first leftist president, breaking decades of right-wing governance. Petro’s guerrilla past as a member of the M-19 movement, which he joined in the 1970s before the group demobilized and entered politics in 1990, made his election deeply controversial among conservatives but represented a historic shift for a nation long dominated by political elites.“Look at Gustavo Petro,” Mr. Valencia says. “He’s president right now. So, we did it well, because we started to bring democracy into legal life.”Guerrilla Movement TransformedToday’s ELN bears little resemblance to the organization Mr. Valencia once served. He estimates current membership at approximately 2,500 fighters, with another 10,000 civilian militias providing support. Between 60 and 70 percent operate along the Venezuelan border.“It’s smaller groups now, and they don’t have the dream anymore to put a president in power,” Mr. Valencia explains. “They actually just try to finance themselves by being part, in a certain way, of the criminal world.”The group’s revenue comes primarily from illegal gold mining and charging fees to coca farmers and drug traffickers moving through ELN-controlled territory. The ELN operates in at least 12 of Venezuela’s 23 states with tacit government support. In 2019, the group publicly vowed to defend Maduro, stating they would “fight” United States troops if they invaded. The ELN coordinates directly with Venezuelan military forces, sharing criminal revenues with regime officials.“They are not drug traffickers themselves. They’re not producing coca paste or cocaine, but they are charging those who are dedicated to that,” he explains.While Mr. Valencia insists military targets were the primary focus during the 1980s and 1990s, Human Rights Watch documented kidnappings and attacks affecting civilian populations even then.“Meanwhile, today, when they attack, it’s not always only going against the military. Sometimes civilians are suffering,” he says.Recent peace negotiations between President Petro and the ELN collapsed after the government opened separate negotiations with an ELN splinter group — a move the national leadership hadn’t authorized. In January 2025, ELN forces launched a brutal offensive in Catatumbo, killing over 100 people and displacing more than 56,000 civilians. Petro suspended talks on January 17, declaring the ELN had “no will for peace.”“The problem inside the ELN is that they are not internally lined up,” Mr. Valencia says. “They still are thinking that there might be one day a chance to win this war with the help of weapons. I don’t agree with that.”Venezuela and Trump’s GambitThe recent arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces has created ripples throughout the region. Despite his leftist roots, Mr. Valencia offers a pragmatic assessment.“I think Nicolás Maduro’s detention has been illegal,” Mr. Valencia says. “But what’s happening right now might be quite smart from Donald Trump or his government, which is basically arresting Nicolás Maduro but keeping the rest of his government.”The strategy allows for a slow transition to democracy while avoiding civil war on Colombia’s doorstep—“the worst scenario for us,” he explains.Mr. Valencia believes Delcy Rodríguez, who now effectively controls Venezuela’s government, understands her survival depends on following President Trump’s instructions.He explains why Maduro received no international support: “First of all, it was obvious that he lost the last presidential election. And obviously, he caused a huge humanitarian crisis, six million people or even more left the country.”He notes Mr. Trump’s interest in Venezuelan petroleum: “The U.S. needs petroleum. Venezuela is just around the corner.”When asked about Mr. Trump’s broader threats against leftist governments, Mr. Valencia dismisses concerns. “Trump arrested someone who no one would back,” he says. “But if he goes after Mexico’s leader, Colombia’s leader, and Brazil’s leader, that would be at another price. He wouldn’t be able to do that.”As Colombia heads toward presidential elections in May, Mr. Valencia is finalizing a book of conversations with Iván Cepeda, the leftist candidate. He gives the left a 55 percent chance of retaining power but emphasizes that success requires moderation.“Probably the one who will be winning presidential elections in May will be the one who’s getting closest to the center,” Mr. Valencia points out.When asked about lessons from his years in armed struggle, Mr. Valencia’s response is unequivocal: “Fighting with weapons cannot be successful. You can’t win this war only based on weapons.”

Inside the ELN: A Former Commander Explains Why Colombia’s Last Major Guerrilla Group Has Lost Its Way

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