Italy’s Meloni, Confronted With Sobering Economic Projections, Could Come To Regret Her Braggadocio

Is Giorgia Meloni’s economic miracle over before it begins? After boasting that Italy had the highest growth rate among the European Union’s Big Three, the prime minister may come to regret her braggadocio. Recent projections are quite sobering.While Signora Meloni’s leadership has made Italy the most stable polity in the EU, the nation’s official statistics institute, known as Istat, paints a less-than-rosy economic picture. Indeed, the numbers belie Signora Meloni’s exuberance. Writing in the Financial Times, Amy Kazmin detailed what’s gone awry.Specifically, il Bel Paese “is on track to grow just 0.5 per cent this year, down from 1 per cent forecast in June.” Furthermore, Istat “slashed its GDP growth projection for 2025 to 0.8 per cent, down from 1.1 per cent six months ago.”Though the country’s burgeoning business investment and reinvigorated household consumption appear to augur a strengthening economy, these indicators were offset by a contraction of residential investment, owing to the winding down of the Superbonus building tax credit.Additionally, “While the services sector and consumer confidence have been stable, manufacturing output and sentiment are showing signs of softening.” Then there’s the big pachyderm of Italy’s public debt, which stands at 134.06 percent. Ironically, a good deal of that is due to the Superbonus home renovation incentive.It bears noting, however, that Italy’s economic freedom of movement is circumscribed by its membership in the European Union. Italy, like its fellow EU states, must comply with the bloc’s “excessive deficit procedure,” which requires member nations to bring their public deficits under a purely arbitrary 3 percent of GDP. This stricture was relaxed during the Covid-19 pandemic, but now the original rule applies,Nevertheless, Finance minister Giancarlo Giorgetti is endeavoring to slash the deficit to 3.6 per cent in 2025 and less than 3 per cent in 2026 from 4.3 per cent this year. The European Commission has given its seal of approval to Signor Giorgetti’s budget plan.That is, Italy’s medium-term structural budget plan “satisfies the requirements” of the stability pact and “defines a credible fiscal path” to paring down public debt. Since taking office, Prime Minister Meloni has taken bold strides in shifting to a pro-growth deregulatory free-enterprise orientation from the left’s statist approach to governance.Yet in cutting spending to restore fiscal order, she must contend with special interests, union agitators and, of course, the ubiquitous not-so-loyal opposition. Domestic critics have put health care spending cuts under the microscope. So disgruntled healthcare workers resorted to the sciopero, or strike, to air their grievances.Ms. Meloni’s health minister, Orazio Schillaci, announced that the budget would include an extra 3.7 billion euros for healthcare spending. “The Italian health care system is not all bad, boasting the third highest healthy-life expectancy as well as above-average spending on prevention,” Politico has reported, pointing to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.The OECD also stated that “Despite sluggish GDP growth over the past year, the unemployment rate has steadily declined.” Moreover, “Collectively bargained wages have grown by about 4%, bolstering household incomes and private consumption.”Despite the strong political, geopolitical and economic headwinds confronting Signora Meloni, her stewardship of the European Union’s third largest — and Earth’s eighth largest — economy is, well, nothing short of miraculous.Having built Fratelli d’Italia from the literal grassroots, while enduring the opprobrium of a vicious global left-wing media, Signora Meloni has forged a sturdy center-right governing coalition that is reshaping the Magic Boot.France is struggling with a bloated budget deficit and stalled fourth-quarter growth following the Paris Olympics. President Macron’s revolving-door prime ministers may lead to his own resignation. Germany’s structurally-flawed economy is mired in a recession that has exacerbated Berlin’s deep political instability, with the anodyne, ineffectual Socialist, Olaf Scholz, headed for the exit.So the world is taking notice of and turning to Italy’s principled female leader. “Who do you call if you want to speak to Europe?” asks Politico. “If you’re Elon Musk — the world’s richest man and a key adviser to United States President-elect Donald Trump — the number you dial belongs to Giorgia Meloni,” whom the magazine has named the Continent’s most powerful person. President-elect Trump agrees, calling Ms. Meloni a “real live wire.”

Italy’s Meloni, Confronted With Sobering Economic Projections, Could Come To Regret Her Braggadocio

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