Many Tight Governor’s Races Bear Watching

Much of the midterm election focus has centered on control of Congress, but voters will also be electing governors in 36 states Tuesday, and the outcomes of these races will affect abortion rights, education policies, and the everyday lives of Americans. Several of the closest races are in battleground states that could again become the focus in a tight 2024 presidential election. With the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June, Democrats are framing these races as a struggle to protect legalized abortion and “preserve democracy.” Republicans are focusing on crime, the economy, and education.If this does indeed turn out to be a red wave, Republicans could conceivably pull off some big upsets, including in New York and even deep blue Oregon. A rundown of races to watch follows.ArizonaIn Arizona, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Kari Lake, is polling ahead of her Democrat challenger, the secretary of state, Katie Hobbs, who gained national attention for defending the state’s voting results after the 2020 presidential election. The race is tight, with Ms. Lake polling only four percentage points above Ms. Hobbs.A local television news anchor who has embraced Trumpism wholeheartedly, including claims the 2020 presidential election was “stolen,” Ms. Lake is a master at the attack-dog sound bite and is running on a MAGA platform of securing the border, fighting crime, tackling inflation, and attacking woke culture, particularly in education. Ms. Hobbs’s campaign, by contrast, has focused mainly on fighting election conspiracies, preserving democracy, and offering voters a competent, steady hand. The outcome of this race will be a major test of how important the “preserving democracy” message is in the face of inflation and illegal immigration in this border state.Ms. Lake is also polling better than Arizona’s Republican senatorial candidate, Blake Masters, and turnout for Ms. Lake could help propel Mr. Masters to a win.MichiganGovernor Whitmer, a Democrat, has made protecting legalized abortion a central issue of her campaign. Her Republican challenger, Tudor Dixon, has focused on education, crime, and the economy. Ms. Dixon has specifically targeted Ms. Whitmer for school closures — fact checking the governor on her claim that she closed schools for “only three months” — and what she describes as excessive Covid-related restrictions that hurt the economy and families.Michigan voters will also be deciding on Proposal 3, a ballot measure that, if it passes, will enshrine “reproductive freedom” in the state constitution. The measure is expected to boost Democrat turnout, and if Ms. Whitmer wins, the election may be seen as a referendum on the issue.WisconsinThe Wisconsin governor’s race is a dead heat, according to polls. The Democrat governor, Tony Evers, is attempting to fight off a challenge from a construction company owner, Tim Michels. Mr. Evers has made abortion and opposing gerrymandering in redistricting maps a central issue of the race. The Trump-backed Mr. Michels has focused on crime and the economy.NevadaNevada is another swing state with a governor’s race in a dead heat. Governor Sisolak, a Democrat, is running for re-election against the Republican Clark County sheriff, Joe Lombardo. The state’s tourism-dependent economy was hit hard by Covid.PennsylvaniaIn the battleground state of Pennsylvania, the governor’s race is not close, according to polls. The state’s attorney general, Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, is leading his Republican challenger, Doug Mastriano, by more than 10 points. A retired Army colonel and state senator, Mr. Mastriano has embraced 2020 election denialism — he marched to the Capitol on January 6, 2021 — and his hard-right views apparently have turned off moderate voters.GeorgiaIn a repeat of their 2018 matchup, Governor Kemp is facing a challenge from Stacy Abrams, a Democrat. Polling suggests Mr. Kemp will prevail again. Ms. Abrams never conceded her 2018 election loss, and she has struggled to win over moderate Georgians, who are generally happy with Mr. Kemp’s handling of Covid and his standing up to President Trump after the 2020 election. OregonIn liberal Oregon, a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor in 40 years, the Democrat house speaker, Tina Kotek, is facing a tough challenge from Christine Drazan. Crime, rising homelessness, and drug use are major issues. Complicating the race is a third, independent challenger, Betsy Johnson, who is polling at more than 8 percent.New YorkGovernor Hochul, a Democrat who ascended to office after Governor Cuomo resigned, is facing a stiff challenge from a Republican congressman, Lee Zeldin. Crime has become the central issue in the race.KansasIn blood-red Kansas, the Democrat governor, Laura Kelly, is leading her Republican challenger, Derek Schmidt, by five points, according to polls. Mr. Trump carried the state in 2020, but in August Kansans overwhelming voted to reject a constitutional amendment that would have weakened abortion rights in the state. Abortion is again a central issue in this race, which is surely one to watch.

Many Tight Governor’s Races Bear Watching

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