WASHINGTON – Congressional Democrats, emboldened by an independent study that calls for a significant reduction of American forces in Iraq, say they’ll push for a redeployment as soon as this fall.

The 20-member panel, comprised mostly of retired senior military and police officers, said the massive deployment of American forces and sprawl of American-run facilities in and around Baghdad has given Iraqis the impression that Americans are an occupying, permanent force.

The panel said the Iraqis should assume more control of its security and American forces should step back.

“Significant reductions, consolidations and realignments would appear to be possible and prudent,” wrote the group, led by a retired Marine Corps general, James Jones.

The recommendation echoed previous independent assessments on the war, including the high-profile Iraq Study Group that said the combat mission could be transferred to the Iraqis by early 2008. But the burning question, left mostly unanswered by the panel, was precisely when Iraqi security units could take control and American troops could leave.

The study concluded only that the Iraqis could not assume control of the country without American help in the next 12 to 18 months.

“We need to start transitioning to an Iraqi lead,” no matter the timeframe, a panel member, George Joulwan, a retired Army general, said.

“I think the signs are there to do that, and we have to reduce that dependency,” he added in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The study sparked ongoing debate among committee members on whether to pass legislation ordering troops home.

Democrats want a firm deadline to pressure Iraqi leaders into taking more control. Most Republicans have so far balked at the suggestion, saying the decision should be left to military commanders.

“There’s a lot of people who are armchair generals who reside here in the air-conditioned comfort of Capitol Hill, who somehow do not trust the judgment of some of the finest leaders that our nation has produced,” Senator McCain, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, said.

Democrats and Senator Warner, Republican of Virginia, expressed skepticism that the Iraqis will reach the necessary political consensus without incentive.

“At the end of the day, we have to make judgments on whether or not we believe continuing military presence by American troops – whether they’re in Iraq for a day, a year or 10 years – will make any difference to the Iraqi government and the Iraqi people,” Senator Clinton said.

The panel’s finding that the America should reduce its visibility in Iraq is not necessarily at odds with the Bush administration. President Bush has long said the combat mission must be handed off to the Iraqis as soon as they can take over and security conditions improve.

But the study suggests that lowering the profile of American forces is a precondition to improving security conditions. It also says helpful “adjustments” could begin in early 2008.

When asked by Mr. McCain whether he would support a deadline for troop withdrawals, Mr. Jones said he would not.

“I think deadlines can work against us,” Mr. Jones said. “I think a deadline of this magnitude would be against our national interest.”

Mr. Jones’ report, released today, concluded that Iraqi security forces would be unable to take control of their country in the next 18 months. If Iraqi troops were given more of a lead, as envisioned by the panel, it is expected that American troops would still play a substantial role by providing logistics and other support, as well as continued training.

Overall, the study found the Iraqi military, in particular its Army, shows the most promise of becoming a viable, independent security force with time. It predicted an adequate logistics system to support these ground forces is at least two years away.

“They are gaining size and strength, and will increasingly be capable of assuming greater responsibility for Iraq’s security,” the report says of military units, adding that special forces in particular are “highly capable and extremely effective.”

Worse off is the Iraqi police force. It describes them as fragile, ill-equipped and infiltrated by militia forces. And they are led by the Ministry of Interior, which is “a ministry in name only” that is “widely regarded as being dysfunctional and sectarian, and suffers from ineffective leadership.”

Mr. Jones’ panel recommended scrapping Baghdad’s national police force and starting over.

America has spent $19.2 billion developing Iraq’s forces and plans to spend another $5.5 billion next year. According to Mr. Jones’ study, the Iraqi military comprises more than 152,000 service members operating under the Ministry of Defense, while the Ministry of Interior oversees some 194,000 civilian security personnel, including police and border control.

The review is one of several studies Congress commissioned in May, when it agreed to fund the war for several more months but demanded that the Bush administration and outside groups assess American progress in the war.