New York City is hitting record levels of turnout in the first days of early voting, though Vice President Harris could have a serious problem with her slipping poll numbers relative to President Biden’s performance in the five boroughs four years ago. President Trump plans to rally in the city on Sunday night. 

The New York City Board of Elections announced Saturday that more than 140,000 votes were cast in-person on the first day of early voting, a nearly 50 percent increase from the same day in 2020. Of the five boroughs, Brooklyn provided the most votes at 40,289. Those 140,000 votes represent about five percent of the total 2020 turnout in the city four years ago. 

The high turnout in one of America’s largest and one of its blues cities, however, may not be great news for Ms. Harris. According to a poll released Saturday from the New York Times and Siena College, Ms. Harris leads Trump by only 39 points in the city itself — far below Mr. Biden’s 54-point win over Trump four years ago. 

Republicans made major gains in New York City in 2022, when Governor Hochul came within seven points of losing her race to Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin. That year, Republicans closed the gap with Republicans among minority voters in New York City, helping to drive their statewide strength. Mr. Zeldin won 17 percent of the Black vote in New York, 35 percent of the Hispanic vote, and 41 percent of the vote from other minority groups. Mr. Zeldin was also able to win three state assembly districts that are either majority or plurality Asian-American in Queens and Brooklyn. 

Trump’s strength seems to come from winning a higher-than average share of votes from certain demographic groups. While he is winning 27 percent of the vote citywide, Trump wins 33 percent of the male vote, 29 percent of the vote of those between the ages of 30 and 45, and 29 percent of the vote from Hispanics. One-third of voters without a college degree also plan to back the former president in November. 

Ms. Harris in recent polling has proven herself to be more of a “change” agent than Trump in voters’ eyes nationally, though New Yorkers have an especially dour view of their city’s prospects, and may be looking for their own kind of change in Trump and other GOP candidates. According to the Times–Siena poll, a majority of the city’s residents say their hometown is on the wrong track, while just 36 percent say the city is moving in the right direction. 

The issues that voters are most concerned with seem to align with Trump’s message. New Yorkers list crime, immigration, and the cost of living as the city’s top problems. In total, 61 percent of voters say those are their biggest concerns day-to-day. 

Trump is set to rally at the city’s most iconic venue on Sunday evening — Madison Square Garden. Joining him on stage will be a number of members of Congress in tight races this year, as well as some of his most famous surrogates, including Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Tucker Carlson. 

Trump supporters were lined up outside of the Garden before dawn on Sunday morning, some taking trains for hours to get in line for the first-come-first-served event. According to the New York Post, supporters came from as far as Florida to get in line to support Trump tonight at the Garden.