On Whose Side Are the Saudis?

Whose side are the Saudis on? President Biden attempted to make the kingdom a world “pariah,” and then went there hat in hand. President Trump made Riyadh his first foreign destination in both terms. The Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, returned the favor by pledging $1 trillion worth of investment in America. That promise now seems as unlikely to materialize as several other of MbS’s projects. It gets only worse from here.Riyadh once seemed on the verge of joining Mr. Trump’s initiative, the Abraham Accords. Now the crown prince is spewing anti-Israel venom. MbS was once a close ally of the Gulf’s most moderate country, the United Arab Emirates. Now he’s an Emirati nemesis. He is befriending instead the Muslim Brotherhood promoters Qatar and Turkey. Broadcasts on the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya are at times more critical of Israel than Qatar’s Al Jazeera.“We are following their growing rapprochement with Qatar and Turkey,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week, referring to Riyadh. “We expect that anyone who wants to normalize relations with us will not align with an ideology that seeks to do the exact opposite of peace.” While the Saudis return to pre-MbS Sunni extremism, they’re also lobbying for the survival of the Iranian mullahs, which they once seemed to fear the most. Mr. Trump’s initial plan to fulfill a promise to Iranian protesters — “help is on its way” — ran into objections from Riyadh and Doha. As firepower is amassed in the region, indicating a potentially even larger set of strikes in Iran, top Saudi envoys are rushing to Washington to hold America back. On Tuesday MbS publicized a phone call in which he told President Massoud Pezeshkian of Iran that Saudi airspace will be closed to American attacking planes. The Saudis are comfortable with a weakened regime at Tehran. An American attack, they fear, would lead to chaos and aggression against Iran’s neighbor. The crown prince’s brother, Khalid bin Salman, arrived on Thursday at Washington to press that point. Separately, an Israeli delegation is there to “share intelligence on possible targets inside Iran,” Axios is reporting. A strike group led by the carrier Abraham Lincoln is now on Iranian shores.Far be it from us to predict the next move, but the Saudis are signaling to Mr. Trump that he best keep his “help” forever on its way, rather than use it to revolutionize the Mideast. The president, though, would have been more likely to heed that call when the Saudi ruler was seen as a moderate reformer with the Midas touch. Instead, MbS is now promoting extremism. To impress Mr. Trump, the prince can’t turn into a pauper. Prince Mohammed’s Vision 2030, his attempt to turn the kingdom to a futuristic superpower from a desert oil station, is now stalling. Ambitious projects like the 2029 Asian Games are on hold. Building Neom, a futuristic shiny city, is postponed. MbS’s ambitions relied on steady oil prices of around $100 a barrel. Mr. Trump’s energy policies slashed that rate by nearly half. The math is not on Riyadh’s side.Low oil prices are good news for American consumers. The Saudis are less happy. American and Israeli strikes in Iran last year tamed the Islamic Republic’s ambitions of regional hegemony and next could dismantle the Islamic Republic. The Saudis, though, prefer to deal with a neutered neighbor. A partnership launched in 1945 between President Roosevelt and King Abdul bin Saud has seen ups and downs. Can MbS be nudged back to our side?

On Whose Side Are the Saudis?

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