Mayor Bloomberg, it is whispered around and about, likes to tell people that he doesn’t have to decide just yet whether to seek the presidency in 2008. But the reality is that he will have to decide sooner rather than later.

A maverick, an innovator, and a political rule-breaker, the mayor certainly possesses two qualities that are a prerequisite for any successful independent candidate — boldness and money. I watched him as he stood with traditional Democrats, such as Mayor Menino of Boston, on anti-gun measures. His outreach to Governor Schwarzenegger landed them both on the cover of Time.

Mr. Bloomberg has another attractive quality: he lacks the whiff of the weird that typically accompanies candidates bucking the two-party system. This puts him in good standing when compared to, say, the Texas billionaire businessman, Ross Perot, who took almost one in five votes in 1992, this after he spoke of spooky threats to the safety of himself and his family. Mr. Perot’s popularity was in the high-30s prior to his meltdown.

William Hillsman, the president of North Woods Advertising and a former strategist to the independent gubernatorial campaign of Jesse Ventura in 1998 and the Green Party candidacy of Ralph Nader in 2000, reckons voters are becoming more open to an independent candidacy. “Self-identified Democrats and Republicans are shrinking,” Mr. Hillsman says. “The only thing that’s growing are self-identified Independents.”

Yet the most successful candidate to run as something other than a Democrat or a Republican since the Civil War was a New Yorker who had already held the nation’s highest office, Theodore Roosevelt. He ran as the nominee of the Progressive/Bull Moose Party in 1912 and came in second, with 27% of the vote. No other candidate, neither Mr. Perot in 1992, nor John Anderson in 1980, nor Henry Wallace or Strom Thurmond in 1948, has finished higher than third.

While there are 17 months before 2008’s general election, Mr. Bloomberg must build an organization that can place him on the ballot in all states, a feat that Mr. Perot was not able to muster.

Mr. Bloomberg’s favor has plenty of money to throw at this chore, but that’s only part of the problem. He must find competent individuals who are unaffiliated with either of the major parties and who can devote time, energy, and passion to him. Independent candidacies are often the refuge of the extreme activist, the fringe enthusiast, and the agitator.

“It’s organization, it’s organization, it’s organization,” the co-founder of the New York State Independence Party and an expert in ballot access around the country, Laureen Oliver, says. Ms. Oliver, who worked on the gubernatorial campaigns of Thomas Golisano in New York and Kinky Friedman in Texas, advised Mr. Bloomberg to hire a top national election attorney, who, in turn, could supervise 50 attorneys to navigate the labyrinthine set of state election laws.

Mr. Bloomberg also faces ideological hurdles. To succeed, he must win the 500,000 male voters who reside in four Industrial Belt states — Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. In Pennsylvania’s case, the experts focus on the western part of the sate. Henry Sheinkopf, a political consultant who worked for the United Auto Workers in Michigan in 2000, says Mr. Bloomberg could craft an attractive economic message to these voters, whose primary interest is jobs.

Yet, his high profile anti-gun stance could work against him in these states. While not quite the pro-National Rifle Association strongholds of the Southern or Mountain states, they do contain considerable hunting communities. His social liberalism, to the left of some Democrats, could hinder his candidacy further in the Deep South and West.

Yet with his money and his full commitment, those I’ve spoken with believe Mr. Bloomberg could have a significant impact on the 2008 election.

President Clinton used the experience of Ross Perot, who helped him win the White House, in an effort to sideline Prime Minister Netanyahu. He did this by helping a potential third candidate in Israel, Yitzhak Mordechai, albeit with only a White House invitation. Mr. Bloomberg could cut into the support of Hillary Clinton, although there’s no way it can help Mayor Giuliani to have his successor in the race if he is the GOP nominee.

Before Mr. Bloomberg can help or hurt the candidates from either party, he’ll have to get into the race officially. If he seeks to be a credible candidate, he needs to be quick about it.

Mr. Gitell (gitell.com) is a contributing editor of The New York Sun.