Polling Guru Gives Trump 66 Percent Chance of Winning Presidential Election

Election analyst Nate Silver has forecasted a win for President Trump in the upcoming November election against President Biden.According to his first 2024 presidential election model, the former president has a 65.7 percent chance of securing the Electoral College vote, compared to 33.7 percent for Mr. Biden.“The model gives Trump a 66 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, and Biden a 34 percent chance,” Mr. Silver explained on his Substack account, the Silver Bulletin.Mr. Silver’s prediction also indicates that while Mr. Biden has a 51 percent chance of winning the popular vote, Trump has a close 49 percent chance.“There’s also a small chance that no candidate gets an Electoral College majority — either because there’s a 269-269 tie or because RFK wins some electoral votes somewhere — though those cases will probably resolve to Trump because of the likely Republican advantage in congressional delegations in the U.S. House under the 12th Amendment,” he added.His conclusion contrasts with some other election predictions, including one from FiveThirtyEight, the politics-and-statistics website founded by Mr. Silver in 2008 and now operated by ABC News. FiveThirtyEight’s recent analysis gave Mr. Biden a slight edge, showing him winning 51 out of 100 times in its simulations of the 2024 presidential race.“Trump and Biden have about an even chance to win,” FiveThirtyEight said in its Wednesday analysis.Mr. Silver noted that Trump currently leads in polling averages across seven swing states. He also mentioned that Mr. Biden still has opportunities to improve his standing, such as the presidential debate on CNN.“Biden could also change his strategy, change his staff, or even pull the emergency lever and decide that stepping back and giving someone else the nomination — either Kamala Harris or someone chosen at the convention — could give Democrats better odds. (Disclaimer: that also might be a terrible idea),” Mr. Silver said.“And he’s really not that far behind. But the race isn’t a toss-up,” he concluded. “That’s at best a white lie — a convenient fiction that allows everyone to shirk accountability for their forecasts and their decisions.”

Polling Guru Gives Trump 66 Percent Chance of Winning Presidential Election

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