Polls Show Harris Expanding Her National Lead, Though Swing States Are Toss Ups

Vice President Harris is expanding her lead nationally while keeping critical swing states competitive, according to new polls released on Sunday. Her strength is seemingly coming from her ability to widen her lead among women voters and registered Democrats, while also narrowing the gap with President Trump on questions about who could deal with the issues that are top-of-mind for many Americans. According to an NBC News national poll released Sunday, Ms. Harris now leads Trump by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent. The last NBC poll, which was conducted while President Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee, showed Trump winning nationally by two points. Ms. Harris’s personal popularity has shot up dramatically since that July survey, likely boosting her new lead over Trump. In July, her favorable rating was just 32 percent. Now, that favorable rating is at 48 percent — eight points higher than Trump. It’s the largest jump in favorable ratings for a national politician since the country rallied to President Bush in the wake of the September 11 attacks. “In July, there was a stiff breeze heading directly at President Biden and obscuring a clear path to victory. Today, the winds have turned in Kamala Harris’ favor,” said one of the pollsters who conducted the NBC survey, Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates. Ms. Harris has closed the gap or taken the lead over Trump on key issues, likely helping her rise. She is now viewed as more physically and mentally prepared for the presidency than Trump, even though in July voters overwhelmingly said Trump would be more capable in the Oval Office than Mr. Biden. The most important issue to American voters this year is inflation and the cost of living. Ms. Harris trails Trump by nine points on the question of who would be better tackling that issue, compared to Trump’s 11-point lead over Mr. Biden on the issue in July, according to an ABC News poll. Key constituencies that are vital to the Democratic Party’s success in November have also come home to Ms. Harris after they flirted with the idea of supporting Trump. When Mr. Biden was in the race, he had an 11-point advantage over Trump with female voters. Ms. Harris now leads Trump among the same group by 21 points. Voters between the ages of 18 and 24 — a group that favored Trump by two points in July — now back Ms. Harris by a margin of 57 percent to 34 percent. Black voters have flocked to Ms. Harris as well. She now has a 78-point lead among that group over Trump, compared to Mr. Biden’s 57-point advantage in November. The two vice presidential candidates may also be having an impact on Ms. Harris’s newfound national support. Her running mate, Governor Walz, has a net positive favorable rating of seven points, with 40 percent having a positive view of him and 33 percent having a negative view. Senator Vance is deep underwater, maintaining his position as the least popular vice presidential pick in decades. Just 32 percent of voters have a positive view of the Ohio senator compared to 45 percent who hold a negative opinion of him — a 13-point deficit. Another number that could be helping Ms. Harris’s rise is the confidence Americans are feeling. Voters are seemingly shifting their view of the country’s future, if ever so slightly. As of Sunday, 28 percent of Americans now believe that the country is on the right track, which is the highest percentage recorded by NBC since September 2022. The vast majority — 65 percent — say the country is on the wrong track, though that is the lowest number since August 2021. Her newfound national support has yet to fully translate to battleground states, however. According to a CBS News poll also released Sunday, Ms. Harris leads by four points nationwide, but only by two points across the seven most important swing states this year — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Ms. Harris leads Trump by three points in Nevada, two points in Michigan and Wisconsin, one point in Arizona and North Carolina. Pennsylvania is tied with both candidates taking 49 percent of the vote, while Trump leads in Georgia by one point. All of those results show a statistical tie across the seven states, however, as the poll’s margin of error is four points.

Polls Show Harris Expanding Her National Lead, Though Swing States Are Toss Ups

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