President’s Preference in South Carolina Senate Race Gives Democrats Hope of Putting Deep Red State in Play

President Trump’s endorsement still holds sway in GOP primaries, as evidenced Tuesday in South Carolina, where he helped carry Senator Darline Graham over the finish line in a runoff for the Senate bid in November. New polling, however, suggests that the president’s popularity overall in the Palmetto State may be a weight around his anointed candidate’s neck in a general election matchup that was not on pollsters’ radars just a few months ago. Ms. Graham was appointed to the Senate last month after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham. While many initially believed that Ms. Graham would simply be a caretaker to serve out the remainder of the late senator’s term, she announced her candidacy for the special GOP primary after Mr. Trump urged her to run. What followed was a flood of outside money for Ms. Graham, a visit to the state by the president himself, and a series of campaign gaffes by the candidate. Ms. Graham famously flubbed a debate answer on Taiwan and the South China Sea, saying she was not “informed” on national security. She told two South Carolina voters that she did not “know” if she supported an abortion ban beginning at conception. She dodged a question from reporters about Dreamers — young migrant non-citizens brought here as minors by their parents — whom her brother had defended for years.On Tuesday, she defeated Congressman Ralph Norman, a hardline conservative lawmaker, in the primary by fewer than five points, and immediately turned her attention toward her Democratic opponent, Annie Andrews.“My Democratic opponent, Dr. Annie Andrews, is the most radical liberal ever nominated for a statewide office by the Democratic Party of South Carolina. Her views are those of Bernie Sanders and AOC,” she said, referencing Congress’s leading Democratic Socialists. In return, Dr. Andrews, has begun painting Ms. Graham as an inexperienced senator with no policy record and nothing by a famous last name. Dr. Andrews, herself an unknown, argues that this is now a race between “the sister” and “the doctor.” According to her campaign, Dr. Andrews has closed the gap with Ms. Graham. On Wednesday, it released an internal poll showing Dr. Andrews and Ms. Graham tied at 41 percent of the general election vote. The poll was conducted by Impact Research, a Democratic firm.“This seat is very much in play, in part because of Dr. Annie Andrews’ favorable profile and the fact that newly-crowned Senator Darline Graham holds an overwhelming amount of baggage and is deeply unpopular,” the firm’s polling memo states. “What’s even more encouraging is Andrews takes the lead once voters hear balanced biographies in an informed vote test.”“With the proper resources to stay on airwaves and combat partisan attacks, Dr. Andrews has a clear path to victory in South Carolina,” it says. The memo is clearly a call for Democratic groups to begin spending on the race, though national Democrats have shown no interest in doing so. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has previously declared his intentions to focus on Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska, which all have tight races while Iowa and Texas have recently moved into a toss-up category for Democrats. That could leave room for independent groups to drop cash on behalf of Dr. Andrews, who currently has a significant fundraising edge over Ms. Graham. Dr. Andrews has $4.1 million in her account compared to about $250,000 in Ms. Graham’s war chest, according to the most recent Federal Elections Commission filings. More telling, according to the Impact Research poll, is that once poll respondents were read biographies of the two candidates, Dr. Andrews took a five-point lead over Ms. Graham — outside of the 3.4 percent margin of error. Both biographies attempted to paint positive pictures of the two women, with Dr. Andrews being described as a longtime physician who will fight corruption and for lower drug prices, and Ms. Graham being described as a conservative who would fight for lower taxes, against “out-of-control spending,” and for strong border security. But given the partisan nature of the state — Republican registrations are more than seven points higher than Democrats, Republican and Democratic strategists alike do not believe that the Senate seat is really in play. Mr. Trump won South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2024 and Senator Tim Scott won his 2022 race by nearly 26 points. Mr. Graham’s 2020 race ended with him 10 points up on Election Night after polling clocked him behind his challenger. Mr. Graham’s victory, however, came with the help of considerable outside money, a repeat of which national Republicans had hoped to avoid this year. However, with the president’s low approval rating — in South Carolina, he is seven points underwater — and Ms. Graham’s questionable campaign performance to date, along with the potential of 2026 being a Democratic wave year, a mounted defense of Ms. Graham’s seat could end up hurting other Republican Senate candidates in must-win states across the country. National Republicans will almost certainly begin spending millions on Ms. Graham’s behalf to ensure a Republican win if the race comes down to a single-digits contest in polling. That means resources will quickly be consumed on what was meant to be a safe seat instead of on potential flip seats in states such as Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire. Democrats’ strength in Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio is already forcing GOP ad makers to play defense for their candidates. The potential resource redistribution has not tempered Mr. Trump’s seeming confidence that the seat will remain red, as he demonstrated his willingness Wednesday to hold a grudge and potentially alienate Mr. Norman’s conservative backers.“Ralph Norman had the look of a good Congressman (Not great, but good), but ruined his career when he endorsed Nikki Haley,” he said in a TruthSocial post.

President’s Preference in South Carolina Senate Race Gives Democrats Hope of Putting Deep Red State in Play

President’s Preference in South Carolina Senate Race Gives Democrats Hope of Putting Deep Red State in Play

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