Pressed by Trump, Europe Steps Up to the Plate on Ukraine

Finland is opening 300 new shooting ranges for citizens. Poland has started mandatory firearms training for all high school students. European Union nations are discussing a $500 billion fund for arms procurement. And, to protect against Russian air attacks, 22 countries have joined a project to build a European Iron Dome.President Trump’s threats to cut off European nations that do not pay for their defense is sinking in. In the background, Europeans realize that Washington increasingly sees America’s big defense threats coming from the Indo-Pacific. However, America’s focus on Asia comes as Russia wages the bloodiest war Europe has seen since World War II. In three years, an estimated one million Russians and Ukrainians have been killed or wounded. “What will we do in Europe tomorrow if our American ally withdraws its warships from the Mediterranean? If they send their fighter jets from the Atlantic to the Pacific?” President Macron warned last week in a speech at a French Army base. He said Mr. Trump’s lukewarm attitude toward the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a “European strategic wake-up call.”Largely overlooked by American press and politicians, Europe is ramping up aid to Ukraine. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said last week that Europe has given $140 billion in aid to Ukraine, twice as much as America. According to the State Department, the United States has given $66 billion since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022.Europe increasingly view Ukraine as the continent’s eastern barrier against Russia. Numbers tell the story. Last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Ukrainian President Zelensky said his nation’s army has 880,000 soldiers. That almost equals the total number of active duty soldiers of Europe’s five largest armies: Poland, France, Germany, Italy, and Britain.Containment of Russia on Ukraine’s eastern border increasingly is seen as necessary for the survival of European civilization. A Russian victory in Ukraine would open a Pandora’s box for Europe, fatally undermining the credibility of the world’s largest military alliance, NATO’s secretary-general, Mark Rutte, told reporters in Davos. To restore NATO’s deterrent power, he said, “will not be billions extra — it will be trillions extra.”“So if you don’t do it, get out your Russian language courses — or go to New Zealand,” Mr. Rutte told the European Parliament two weeks ago. Separately, Britain’s foreign secretary, David Lammy, a Labourite, said in a January 9 speech: “Donald Trump and J.D. Vance are simply right when they say that Europe needs to do more to defend its own continent. It’s myopia to pretend otherwise with Russia on the march.”Agreement comes from a Washington conservative think tank, the American Enterprise Institute. In a new report, it estimates that if Russia wins in Ukraine, America would have to boost its own military by spending by $808 billion through 2030 to safeguard Europe.As President Zelenskiy seeks American security guarantees for a potential armistice, he joins the chorus saying Europe should invest more in its defense. In an interview aired last night on Fox, he said: “Putin is not afraid of Europe.”During the first Trump presidency, European nations bridled at Mr. Trump’s demand that they dedicate 2 percent of their gross domestic product toward defense. At the time, only three countries did this. Today, 23 out of the 32 NATO member countries are meeting or exceeding this defense spending target. Now, four front-line nations — Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, and Sweden — have accepted Mr. Trump’s new challenge: 5 percent of GDP.“Russia poses an existential threat to our security today, tomorrow, and for as long as we underinvest in our defense,” Ms. Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister, said last week at the European Defense Agency. At the next NATO annual summit, at The Hague in June, member nations are expected to raise the defense spending to 3 or 3.5 percent of GDP.Europe’s changing tune is due to Russia’s all out war against Ukraine. Kremlin propagandists make it clear they do not plan to stop at dismembering Ukraine. On Russian state TV talk shows, participants routinely call for the bombing of Warsaw, Berlin, Paris, and London. One popular host, Vladimir Solovyov, recently said Finland, Warsaw, the Baltics, Moldova, and Alaska should be “returned to the Russian Empire.” “The Kremlin has become the glue that binds Europe’s countries because they realize they need one another to protect their airspace, territories, borders, and coastlines from Russian hybrid warfare and potential attacks,” Canadian journalist Diane Francis wrote in a recent blog post headlined “Making Europe Great Again.” Since 2022, she wrote, “America has borne the financial brunt of saving Ukraine this time, but won’t next time. And there will be a next time unless NATO turns Europe into a military and economic fortress.”Aid to Ukraine comes from unexpected sources. At Davos, Albania signed a 10-year security cooperation agreement with Ukraine. Albania, a NATO member, is to provide English language training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots and technicians. Denmark just disclosed that it is sending Russian-made Gvozdika 122mm self-propelled howitzers, apparently bought from Croatia. Sweden, NATO’s newest member, is preparing a 3-year, $7 billion military aid package for Ukraine.Two weeks ago, it was Prime Minister Starmer who made his first trip to Kyiv to sign a “100-year” partnership agreement with Ukraine. This includes maritime security, military drones, and allowing British bases in Ukraine. Days earlier, the Italian and German defense ministers made separate visits to Kyiv. Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, said: “We must continue supporting Ukraine to create conditions for a ceasefire and lasting peace.”On Monday, Mr. Macron met with Mr. Zelensky in Poland. He promised to deliver Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of March. Low-key Norway is a firm backer of Ukraine. With a population of only 5.5 million, Norway has the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, $1.7 trillion. This is 15 times what remains of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund after three years of war.Norway shares a 123-mile Arctic border with Russia. In peaceful times, this would be a geographical footnote. But Russia imperialists now argue that orthodox churches — and hence Russian culture — once dominated northern Norway. In addition to channeling $1.5 billion a year in aid to Ukraine, Norway is moving to protect the Rzeszów Polish logistics hub with Norwegian advanced Surface-to-Air missile systems. Through spring, 100 Norwegian military specialists will be stationed at the base, 40 miles west of Ukraine. Norway’s defense minister, Bjørn Arild Gram, said: “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated the value of air defense, and the Norwegian contribution in Poland is highly appreciated. We are doing this primarily for Ukraine and Poland.”For Ms. Kallas of the EU, a possible reduction of American military footprint in Europe means: “It’s time to invest.” “We need 27 European armies that are capable and can effectively work together to deter our rivals and defend Europe,” she said Wednesday at the European Defence Agency at Brussels. “We do not need a European army.”As Mr. Trump maneuvers Russia and Ukraine toward peace talks this spring, the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, and Poland discuss placing European boots on the ground to enforce an armistice. These would not be United Nations-style peacekeepers, soldiers from poor nations who are often motivated by the pay. European governments see their soldiers would play the “human tripwire” role that American troops have successfully played in South Korea since 1953.As the negotiation preparations start, Russia’s ambassador-at-large for the war in Ukraine, Rodion Miroshnik, yesterday started the public diplomacy. He warned America and Europe that any peacekeepers deployed to Ukraine without Moscow’s permission would be considered “military targets.”

Pressed by Trump, Europe Steps Up to the Plate on Ukraine

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