Putin, Fearing Ukrainian Drones, Drops Tanks and Missiles From Red Square ‘Victory’ Parade

As Russia’s air defenses weaken and Ukraine’s drone offenses strengthen, the Kremlin is dropping all military equipment from its annual May 9 “Victory” parade through Red Square. For the first time in almost two decades, there will be no tanks, trucks, missile launchers, or ballistic missiles. Instead, TV viewers across Russia will have to settle for goose-stepping soldiers and overflights by Su-25 ground attack jets.Last year, President Vladimir Putin was joined on the Kremlin reviewing stand by 27 foreign leaders, including President Xi Jinping of Communist China. This year, there is only one confirmation — the Slovakian prime minister, Robert Fico.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters at Moscow yesterday that last year’s parade — over 180 vehicles — was unique because it marked the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Mr. Putin has made this victory a central ideological pillar of his quarter century rule over Russia. Inconvenient to this narrative, Russia’s war against Ukraine has gone on longer than the Soviet Union’s four years of fighting against Nazi Germany. Yet no victory is in sight.“Why is there no military equipment at the parade?” a former Kremlin speechwriter, Abbas Gallyamov, asked on Telegram. “Are they afraid of a rebellion? Or has all the equipment burned up in Ukraine?”Mr. Peskov hinted at the main reason for scaling down the parade, long a propaganda showcase for Russia’s latest military technology. “The Kyiv regime…has now launched full-scale terrorist activity,” he said. “All measures are being taken to minimise the danger.”Russia’s defense ministry statement downgrading the parade came three days after Ukrainian drones for the first time reached the Ural Mountains — a 1,000-mile flight from eastern Ukraine. Drones hit Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinaburg. During World War II, Stalin moved defense plants to the Urals, seeking to place them out of range of German bombers. Chelyabinsk produced so many tanks that it was informally called “Tankograd.”Yesterday Ukrainian long-range drones hit two more targets in the Urals, oil installations at Perm and Orsk. By hitting the Orsk refinery, near the Kazakhstan border, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces set a distance record — 1,100 miles. From Ukraine, Moscow is less than one-third that distance, 350 miles. The difference between today and a year ago is that Ukraine has methodically destroyed Russian air defense equipment.“A quiet but strategically consequential campaign has unfolded deep inside Russian territory: a systematic Ukrainian effort to degrade, disrupt, and destroy the integrated air defence network that Moscow depends upon to protect its strategic assets,” open source intelligence research site Tochnyi, or “Accurate,” reported last month. “The number of strikes on air defense systems has consistently increased,” the investigators said after studying 492 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian air defense installations, with “the ultimate goal of facilitating strikes on more critical targets deep within Russian territory.” After destroying Russian air defenses faster than Russia can replace them, “Ukraine’s manned warplanes are also penetrating deeper into ostensibly Russian-controlled air space,” American military analyst David Axe wrote two weeks ago in a blog headlined: “Russian Air Defenses Have Collapsed.”Ukraine’s ability to penetrate Russia’s air defenses was illustrated by its drone offensive against Tuapse, a Russian Black Sea oil refinery and export terminal port. Ukrainian drones attacked on April 16. The resulting fires were recorded from space by NASA satellites. A huge black column rose miles into the air and then descended as an oily, black rain. One video shows a stream of burning oil flowing down a city street.Then, on April 20, Ukraine attacked the port with more drones. Then a third wave hit on Tuesday, April 28. Ukraine says 28 massive oil tanks were destroyed or damaged. Local authorities assured residents that most drones were shot down. That was little comfort to the city’s 60,000 inhabitants who were told to shelter in place with their windows sealed.Few analysts believe that Ukraine would risk one of its precious jet fighters — American, French, or Soviet — in an attack on Moscow. Yet the Kremlin traditionally assembles its military equipment for a rehearsal a few nights before the parade. Staging areas would be easy targets.A drone attack on Red Square itself is deemed possible, but unlikely. A May 9 attack could kill or injure tourists and foreign dignitaries, an event that would backfire on Ukraine.“Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian territory has indeed grown in recent years,” the editor in chief of Novaya Gazeta Europe, Kirill Martynov, told Voice of America. “A breach of air defense during this parade, with all the distinguished guests present, is absolutely a very real threat.” Rather than seeking to cause mass terror, the planners of Ukraine’s drone war target arms factories and Russia’s oil export infrastructure. With oil supplies tight due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, President Volodymyr Zelensky says he has received “signals” from Ukraine’s “partners” to lay off Russia’s oil industry.Assuming some signals come from the Trump White House, it is a measure of the loss of American influence that Mr. Zelensky ignores them. Last year, President Trump cut off all American military aid to Ukraine, a move that took away leverage at Kyiv. Over the last year, Mr. Trump’s peace negotiators have made repeated visits to Moscow, but none to Kyiv. Ukraine’s president calls that imbalance “disrespectful.”“Russia is not in a strong position — they are not winning,” Mr. Zelensky yesterday told a reporter from Newsmax, the American cable channel. “We are currently in the best position on the battlefield in the last nine to ten months. But in any case, it is better to stop the war.” Yesterday, Mr. Trump had a 90-minute telephone call with Mr. Putin. Later, the two men announced they back a three-day ceasefire before, during, and after the May 9 holiday. If accepted by Kyiv, this could prevent Ukrainian drones from converting Mr. Putin’s “Victory Parade” into a “Defeat Parade.”

Putin, Fearing Ukrainian Drones, Drops Tanks and Missiles From Red Square ‘Victory’ Parade

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