Republicans Could Lose North Carolina Governor’s Race in Landslide, But Presidential Contest Appears Unaffected

Against the backdrop of the close presidential race in the state, the North Carolina governor’s race looks like it could be a landslide victory for the Democratic nominee, Josh Stein.Mr. Stein, the North Carolina attorney general, is facing off against the state’s lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, in a race for the governor’s mansion.While the state is still a toss-up in the presidential race, Mr. Stein has opened up an 8 point lead over Mr. Robinson, according to a new ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters released Tuesday.The survey found Mr. Stein leading Mr. Robinson 54 percent to 46 percent and winning 67 percent of self identified centrists as well as 15 percent of moderate conservatives and 13 percent of conservatives.North Carolina’s lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, speaks before President Trump at a campaign rally at Greensboro, North Carolina. AP/Chris CarlsonBy comparison, Mr. Robinson garnered the support of just 3 percent of self identified moderate liberals and 0 percent of self identified liberals.Mr. Stein also enjoyed the support of 87 percent of Black respondents, while Mr. Robinson, who is Black, was supported by just 13 percent.Another recent survey have found Mr. Stein leading by double digits, with a SurveyUSA and High Point University Survey Research Center survey finding Mr. Stein leading 50 percent to 36 percent in mid-August.A victory with an 8 point margin would be a win for state Democrats, who won the last gubernatorial race in the state by just more than 4 points. For context, Republicans have controlled both houses of the state legislature since 2011, while Democrats have won the last two gubernatorial elections.North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein speaks in support of Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris at the Hendrick Center For Automotive Excellence on August 16, 2024 at Raleigh, North Carolina. Grant Baldwin/Getty ImagesThe North Carolina governorship was weakened substantially in 2016 after the GOP-controlled legislature stripped the office of many of its powers. The legislation was signed by an outgoing GOP governor, Pat McRory, who’d lost a close race to Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat who’d go on to serve two terms.The GOP currently enjoys a supermajority in the legislature, and can override the governor’s vetoes. In the last year, they’ve pushed through legislation changing election laws in ways Democrats say will suppress the Black vote.The governor’s race may therefore be less consequential than the presidential contest, in which North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes could decide the race.As for the governor’s race, part of the problem for Republicans is that Mr. Robinson has gotten negative attention for multiple comments. Mr. Robinson, a former furniture worker, first gained fame in 2018 when comments he made about gun rights at a city council meeting at Greensboro went viral on YouTube. He was elected as the state’s first Black lieutenant governor two years later.President Biden hugs Vice President Harris as North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper looks on during an event at the Chavis community center on March 26, 2024 at Raleigh, North Carolina. But he’s also drawn criticism from across the political spectrum due to past comments, including everything from Holocaust denial to calling LGBTQ Americans “maggots,” to more recent comments like in July when The New Republic reported that Mr. Robinson told a crowd that “some folks need killing.”Whether Mr. Robinson will be a drag on the Republican presidential nominee in the state, however, is unclear. Recent polling shows that the presidential race in the state is a dead heat and an August New York Times and Siena College survey found that a significant chunk of voters plan to support President Trump but not Mr. Robinson.Many political strategists suggest that whether Kamala Harris can win North Carolina will depend on turnout among Black voters in Charlotte, the largest city, and in the rural, eastern part of the state.

Republicans Could Lose North Carolina Governor’s Race in Landslide, But Presidential Contest Appears Unaffected

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