Republicans’ Early and Mail Vote Drive Seems To Be Working, as GOP Closing the Gap With Democrats Across Critical Battleground States

Republicans’ efforts to persuade voters to vote early or by mail seems to be working, as registered members of the GOP are closing the gap with Democrats on pre-Election Day voting methods, with turnout climbing higher and higher. Even President Trump says he will vote before Election Day.Across the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, Democrats still hold a lead over their GOP opponents, though Republicans’ numbers are rising. Nationwide, about 18 million early and mail votes have been cast and received by officials. North Carolina alone has provided more than 1.7 million of those votes since ballots began being received just five days ago. That represents more than one-third of all early and mail votes in the state in 2020. The picture looks relatively positive for the GOP. Of the 1.7 million votes that have been cast so far, 34.5 percent have been by registered Democrats, while 33.9 percent have been from Republicans. The good news for Vice President Harris is the racial and gender breakdown of those who have voted so far. As of Wednesday, 52 percent of votes cast in North Carolina were sent in by women, while more than 18 percent were sent in by Black voters. Both of those demographics — which strongly favor Ms. Harris — are overperforming at the polls relative to their share of the population of North Carolina, with women making up 51 percent and Black individuals comprising 12 percent of North Carolina. The best state for Republicans at the moment is Nevada — a state that hasn’t been won by the GOP at the presidential level since 2004. In early voting there, Republicans lead by about 12,000 votes over their Democratic counterparts. In rural parts of the state — meaning not Clark County and not Washoe County, which are home to Las Vegas and Reno, respectively — Republicans have a 16,500-vote lead. The editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, says such a lead in rural Nevada could cause real problems for Ms. Harris come November. She has consistently been polling just a few points behind Trump in the state. “It’s real: 16,500 votes because of massive landslides so far and higher than urban turnout percentage,” Mr. Ralston wrote on X on Wednesday. “Dems need more mail, lots of [independents], or big trouble in NV.”The great white whale of the election is undoubtedly Pennsylvania, where Republicans have been able to narrow the gap with Democrats on return rates, which will be critical to cutting down Ms. Harris’s pre-Election Day firewall. As of Wednesday, Democrats had returned nearly 63 percent of their mail ballots that had been sent out, while Republicans had returned just less than 57 percent. The GOP is still less trustworthy of mail voting, however, with only 29 percent of all mail ballots cast coming from Republicans in the state. Trump’s advantage on Election Day is likely to be substantial, though a major concern for the GOP has just been getting its own supporters to put their ballots in the mail in order for them to be counted. A Republican operative in Pennsylvania who is focused on getting GOP voters to return their ballots, Dean Browning, told the Philadelphia Inquirer that the GOP needs to hit about a 90 percent return rate with their mail ballots, which would be on par with the Democrats. Just two years ago, Republicans returned about 81 percent of mail ballots that were sent out to voters. “That’s a substantial difference,” Mr. Browning told the Inquirer. “Republicans used to say they don’t like mail-in. They just want to vote on Election Day. But the rules of the game have changed. If the Democrats have election month mailing in ballots, and we have just one day, we are not going to win in Pennsylvania.”While Wisconsin does not provide information about the party registration breakdown of early and mail voting, the level of turnout itself is notable. In the state, voters blew past the 2020 benchmark for early voting, with nearly 100,000 Wisconsinites lining up to cast their ballots for the November election. About 80,000 did the same on the first day of early voting four years ago.

Republicans’ Early and Mail Vote Drive Seems To Be Working, as GOP Closing the Gap With Democrats Across Critical Battleground States

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