Republicans Fall Just Shy of Trump’s Margin in Georgia State Senate Special Election

Republicans are receiving yet another potential warning sign for the upcoming midterm elections after the GOP candidate in a special state senate election on Tuesday slightly underperformed President Trump. If Republicans cannot match the president’s 2024 margin this year, Senator Jon Ossoff is almost certain to win a second term. Voters in Georgia’s 18th state senate district on Tuesday went to the polls and elected Republican attorney Steven McNeel to fill the seat in a special election. The previous state senator resigned in order to focus on his campaign for lieutenant governor. Mr. McNeel won the seat by just under 19 points on Tuesday, while Mr. Trump won the 18th district by more than 22 points in 2024. He won Georgia by just over two points that year. The results on Tuesday — while not as dramatic as other special elections — is another example of Democrats moving legislative seats across the country in their direction, buoying hopes for a win in the race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In April, two Florida congressional seats moved 15 points away from the GOP, the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races in November saw Democrats move their states back toward their party by double-digits, and a state senate seat in Texas earlier this month moved more than 30 points toward Democrats. In a deep-red Louisiana state house district which Mr. Trump won by 13 points in 2024, a Democrat won a special election to fill the seat by 24 points — a 37-point swing towards her party. Since Mr. Trump returned to office, the GOP has not been able to flip a single state legislative seat across the country to Republican from Democrat. This is not the first election in Georgia that has seen Democrats overperform ahead of this November’s elections. In December, now-Democratic state representative Eric Gisler won a special election in a state house district that covered the suburbs and exurbs south of Athens, Georgia. Mr. Trump won that district by 12 points in 2024, though Ms. Gisler pulled out a win by just under two points. One month before Mr. Gisler won his race, Democrats flipped two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission by wide margins, marking the first time in nearly 20 years that Democrats won statewide elections for a state-level position. The slight underperformance on Tuesday, however, could still spell trouble for Republicans hoping to unseat Georgia’s Democratic U.S. senator, however. Mr. Ossoff, elected in 2021, is broadly seen as the favorite to win his re-election race in November given his strong fundraising numbers and consistent polling leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. In a blow to the GOP last year, Governor Brian Kemp, a popular term-limited executive, decided against challenging Mr. Ossoff in November.

Republicans Fall Just Shy of Trump’s Margin in Georgia State Senate Special Election

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