Russia and Ukraine Bomb Their Way Through Trump’s ‘Ceasefire’

After President Trump ordered President Zelensky on Friday to stop hitting Russian oil installations, Ukrainian drones bombed a major oil export terminal on Saturday, and, a few hours later, a massive oil storage facility. Billed as the largest oil tank farm in Europe, Samara’s one square mile facility was lit up by raging fires from two days of bombing raids.The fires put a spotlight on Washington’s loss of leverage over Ukraine. After cutting virtually all military aid to Ukraine last year, the Trump Administration finds that its main remaining levers are satellite intelligence and export controls over sales of US-made military equipment.After bombing 27 of Russia’s 32 largest refineries this year, Ukraine does not need American intelligence to set coordinates. American satellite intelligence is useful for air defense, but Ukraine increasingly relies on its own early warning systems.Ditto for American military equipment. In a war defined by drones, Ukraine has become the world’s leading manufacturer of military drones. It produces its own ballistic missiles and its own ground-based interceptors capable of downing jet-powered drones. American military equipment, by contrast, is often the most expensive in the world. Buyers increasingly fear that American systems come with hidden ‘kill switches.’ Under this theory, if a buyer crosses the White House, an office in the Pentagon can disable the system.And Mr. Zelensky has again crossed Mr. Trump. Over the weekend, they hit a nadir in their often stormy, seven-year relationship.“It’s time for Ukraine to get a new president,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Saturday. “I said to him, ‘Do what you want. Don’t hit refineries. There’s plenty of targets. Don’t hit refineries.’ And he went out and he hit. He better damn well stop.”With the U.S. midterm elections three weeks away, Mr. Trump is pushing the view that Ukraine’s air war against Russia’s refinery network is responsible for American diesel prices doubling this year. In a last minute effort to bring prices down, Mr. Trump called President Putin last Wednesday, the Russian leader’s birthday, and cooked up a deal for Russia to resume diesel exports — to the US.Mr. Trump announced the deal on Friday, while Ukrainian negotiators were meeting in Miami with White House envoys to negotiate an ‘energy ceasefire.’ Under this proposal, Ukraine would stop hitting Russian refineries and Russia would stop hitting Ukrainian power generating plants.Last month, Ukraine’s military claimed they had knocked out 51 percent of Russia’s refining capacity. While Russian air defenses are improving, the accuracy and firepower of Ukrainian drones also are improving. Increasingly, Ukraine’s drones spurn storage tanks to hit ‘the brains’ of refineries. And these ‘brains’ are generally composed of equipment imported from the West. Due to Ukraine’s bombing campaign, Russia stopped exporting diesel last summer. On the import side, the US Congress banned imports of Russian oil products in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Last month, Mr. Trump signed into law a bill placing 500 percent duties on imports from Russia and 100 percent on imports from countries that are major importers of Russian oil.“Whose side is Trump on?” Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat, asked on social media. “The entire goal was to choke off Putin’s money for the war by punishing countries who were evading the sanctions and buying Russian oil,” Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat, posted on X. “Does that mean we’re sanctioning ourselves now?”Over the Columbus Day weekend, Mr. Trump’s plan to import Russian diesel ran into a buzz saw of bipartisan opposition. But support for Ukraine remains popular among Americans. A recent Economist/YouGovpoll of Americans found that 61 percent of respondents sympathize with Ukraine, compared to only 3 percent who sympathize with Russia. “The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians,” seven senators — four Republican and three Democratic — said in a statement issued Saturday. “The Administration must immediately reverse course.”Mr. Trump’s former vice president Mike Pence called his decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil a “betrayal” and urged the president to “rescind” it. Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick said bipartisan lawmakers will introduce a bill to block all purchases of Russian oil. It is called the “Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act.” Trump supporter and social media influencer Laura Loomer posted on X: “Zelenskyy is trying to save his people from being slaughtered by a madman. Putin has been refusing to end this war that President Trump wants to end. Zelenskyy said he would stop bombing Russia but Putin won’t agree to stop bombing Ukraine.”To calm waters, Mr. Trump posted yesterday morning on Truth Social: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” However, by nightfall, no confirmation had come from the Kremlin. “In Russia, nothing is known about an energy truce with Ukraine,” First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy Igor Ananskikh said yesterday. “We all know that Trump often says something so that oil prices don’t rise.”Mr. Zelensky’s reaction was that the announcement “was news for me.” On Friday, Ukrainian negotiators said they were blindsided by Mr. Trump’s plan to import diesel from Russia. Yesterday, they said the ‘energy ceasefire’ proposal was lopsided. It was to be limited to attacks on refineries. The problem is that Ukraine’s sole refinery, in Kremenchuk, was destroyed by Russian bombs in 2022. The country imports all its gasoline and diesel.Under Ukraine’s vision of an energy ceasefire, it would stop bombing Russian refineries and Russia would stop bombing Ukrainian power plants. Hours after the diesel deal was announced, Russia bombed electricity generating plants in Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukraine’s two largest cities.In the last week, Russia has attacked Ukraine’s electricity system 196 times and its oil and gas infrastructure 20 times, Mr. Zelensky said yesterday in an interview with ABC News. The winter outlook is so bleak that Kyiv authorities yesterday advised residents to stockpile at least three days of food and water, to charge portable batteries, and insulate apartments.Mr. Trump’s blaming of Ukraine for sky high diesel prices — a national average of $6.28 a gallon — is seen by many analysts as an effort to divert attention to the war he started last February against Iran. A recent study by the Kyiv School of Economics indicates that from March to August diesel shipments from the Persian Gulf fell by 152 million barrels compared to the same period last year. During the same time, Russian diesel exports were down by 68 million.Although Mr. Trump has said the Strait of Hormuz is ‘open and operating,’ two oil tankers were hit by rockets last weekend in the Strait. Yesterday, Fox News talk show host Brian Kilmeade said: “The diesel fuel got stopped because Iran was blowing up the Gulf states’ oil and their refineries, and now all of a sudden there is new emphasis on Russia.”

Russia and Ukraine Bomb Their Way Through Trump’s ‘Ceasefire’

Russia and Ukraine Bomb Their Way Through Trump’s ‘Ceasefire’

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