Russian Satellite Closes In on Satellite Aiding Ukraine, Raising Significant Alarms Over Its Intent

A Russian satellite closed to within 85 feet of a U.S.-registered satellite in Earth orbit on Monday, a striking development in its month-long stalking of a spacecraft providing intelligence resources to Ukraine.The move comes one month after the U.S. secretary of the Air Force confirmed that the American military has weapons in orbit after a Chinese satellite mysteriously disintegrated in space. It also demonstrates recent maneuvers by the world’s largest militaries — not just the United States and Russia’s, but China and India’s as well — toward transforming low-Earth orbit from a vast and placid domain of exploration and intelligence into a warfighting battleground.As the Russian satellite closed in, expending its own fuel to match the movements of its quarry, national security experts say it is possible Russia may be positioning to use an orbital weapon for the first time.“No one should assume to know what Russia will do next with Cosmos 2612, but the potential for a threat is there,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in a briefing Friday. “Washington and its allies may think that hostile actions targeting a Western satellite would be highly escalatory — but Moscow may be willing to take that risk, believing the West will not respond forcefully.”“A Russian satellite conducting plane-matching maneuvers with a Western satellite is, thus, justifiably raising significant alarm,” the center added in its report.The satellite being pursued is known as ICEYE-X36. It is a U.S.-registered commercial satellite operated by a multinational company founded in Finland called ICEYE, which has been assisting Ukraine, according to the center. Earlier this year, ICEYE signed an agreement with Ukraine to provide “high-resolution satellite imagery” for the Ukrainian military, primarily to track Russian troop movements, according to multiple unconfirmed reports. ICEYE satellites use radar pulses rather than sunlight to see at night through clouds and smoke, the company said in a January news release. This type of satellite is also used by the Polish Armed Forces.Cosmos 2612 has been at the same altitude high above the Earth as ICEYE-X36 for nearly three weeks, the center wrote. Early Monday, it approached to fewer than 90 feet from ICEYE-X36 before backing off again, according to open-source satellite tracking data analyzed by the Ukrainian website, Militarnyi.“In October 2022, Russian MFA official Konstantin Vorontsov warned at the UN that commercial satellites supporting Western militaries could be ‘legitimate’ targets,” reads a report from ISR University, a group that includes former U.S. Department of Defense professionals and military service members. “ICEYE imagery supports Ukrainian targeting. 2612 now has the geometry to act on that warning.”Russia launched Cosmos 2612 and several of its sister craft into orbit in April. By May, five of the satellites including Cosmos 2612 were executing complex, fuel-burning maneuvers to get closer to ICEYE-X36. On Monday afternoon, open-source satellite tracking data viewed by The New York Sun showed Cosmos 2612 still pursuing ICEYE-X36 over Brazil.“We still do not know what Cosmos 2612 carries or its capabilities,” ISR University wrote. “We do know that it is now in an orbit where Russia could execute collection, non-kinetic or kinetic operations.”Russia has previously tracked satellites from other nations, according to a satellite tracking expert, Marco Langbroek, who teaches at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. Mr. Langbroek told the Netherlands’ VRT News that the Russians have taken out a satellite in the past, in November 2021 when it fired a ground-based missile targeting its own defunct spy satellite as part of an anti-satellite weapons test. At the time, the impact created a cloud of space junk that came precariously close to the International Space Station. Mr. Langbroek said previous efforts by Russia to track communications satellites were for the purpose of spying. What is happening now, however, appears more belligerent. “We have seen for a long time that Russia behaves aggressively in space. At best, it does so to provoke,” he said. “Now it really looks more like a preparation for the actual elimination of an enemy satellite.”No publicly available evidence shows that any other nation has used an orbital weapon. In May 2024, Russia launched the separate craft Cosmos 2576, which the Pentagon said at the time was “likely a counterspace weapon.”This September, the secretary of the Air Force, Troy Meink, said the United States has “on-orbit, space-control weapons, capable of defending the joint force against hostile adversaries.” This first-ever confirmation by a policymaker from any country came two weeks after the Chinese Yaogan-50 reconnaissance satellite broke apart several hundred miles above the Earth. Mr. Meink did not reveal any information about that satellite’s demise and has not elaborated publicly since.The Center for Strategic and International Studies views the trajectory of Cosmos 2612 and its sister ships as a threat and a sky-high escalation of Russian “gray zone” tactics: irregular targeting of European and NATO countries using intelligence units and proxy forces.“Given Russia’s history of testing on-orbit weapons, policymakers should assume Cosmos 2612 could take an action that threatens the commercial satellite,” the center wrote in its briefing. “But the risk extends beyond just one satellite. A Russian counterspace activity in the vicinity of Western satellites should be assessed within the context of aggressive Russian gray zone activities targeting U.S. and European interests.”

Russian Satellite Closes In on Satellite Aiding Ukraine, Raising Significant Alarms Over Its Intent

Russian Satellite Closes In on Satellite Aiding Ukraine, Raising Significant Alarms Over Its Intent

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