Separatist Party Is Favored To Top Polls in Monday’s Quebec Election

TORONTO — Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, could soon face new challenges in holding his own country together even as he seeks to pivot away from economic reliance on America and forge closer bonds with the European Union.The Parti Quebecois, which has twice held referendums on independence for the largely French-speaking province — and came within a percentage point of success in 1995 — is favored to come out on top of a provincial election on Monday, setting the stage for a third referendum at some point during its mandate.That election comes just two weeks before a separate referendum in the oil-rich western province of Alberta, where voters will be asked whether the provincial government should begin a legal process leading to a second binding referendum on whether to separate from Canada.The separatist movements are a major distraction for Mr. Carney, who is expected to announce details of a broad new partnership with the EU at a summit with European leaders on October 29 and 30 at Montreal. Leaked elements of the plan include closely linked digital payment systems and guaranteed EU access to Canadian critical minerals and natural gas.Even so, the prime minister has had little to say publicly about the Quebec campaign, part of a deliberate strategy to avoid being accused of federal interference, according to a Queen’s University political scientist, Stephanie Chouinard. He doesn’t want to “fan the flames” in Alberta, or “feed these ideas in Quebec,” she told Agence France Presse.Polling ahead of Monday’s Quebec election shows the Parti Quebecois, or PQ, at only about 30 percent, but with the remaining vote broadly divided among four parties — including Mr. Carney’s Liberals — analysts believe that is enough for the separatists to finish first and possibly secure a majority in the provincial legislature. The party leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has pledged that if elected he will hold another independence referendum.Ironically, the PQ’s climb in the polls comes with public support for Quebec independence at a 30-year low, according to a Leger/Journal de Montreal survey in March that found only 29 percent of respondents would vote for separation. That reflects a surge of Canadian nationalism prompted by President Trump’s tariffs and his talk of making Canada a 51st state, and Mr. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has responded by promising that his promised referendum will be deferred until after Mr. Trump leaves office.Quebec, with more than 21 percent of Canada’s population, has been led since 2018 by the Coalition Avenir Québec, or CAQ, which had successfully positioned itself as a compromise between the PQ and the staunchly federalist Liberals, pledging an “autonomist” defense of the province’s French language and culture while focusing on pragmatic bread-and-butter concerns rather than separatism.However support for the party has collapsed to around 18 percent in recent polling, with analysts putting the blame on “voter fatigue,” exacerbated by the party’s mishandling of what came to be seen as a ginned-up scandal alleging American interference in the election.Party officials tipped off reporters in early September to an article by an American think tank, Defense Analyses and Research Corporation, which among other things suggested that “U.S. strategy should be to achieve the fragmentation, not annexation, of Canada,” and that the United States “should exploit the soon-to-arrive fragmentary moment in Canada as an opportunity to drastically reshape the North American environment into one more amenable to U.S. interests.” However it emerged that reports on the February 26 article had appeared months earlier, making the disclosure appear like a cynical ploy.Dismissing another potentially damaging report on Saturday, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon posted a video on social media refuting what he described, in French, as “false information 48 hours before the vote about an alleged request for a meeting with the Americans.” Earlier Saturday, the Montreal Gazette quoted the United States Embassy as Ottawa as confirming that the party had requested a meeting with the Trump administration in March, apparently to discuss trade issues.The Liberal Party dominated Quebec politics through much of the past century but saw its support collapse to under 15 percent in the 2022 provincial election amid unhappiness over a series of fund-raising scandals and its opposition to what the party saw as extreme measures on language and culture. While its support is now concentrated in largely English-speaking areas around Montreal, the party is polling around 25 percent and expected to finish second behind the PQ.Among the remaining parties, the Conservatives, never a force in Quebec, have picked up the backing of many right-leaning CAQ voters. They are polling around 18 to 20 percent and stand to improve significantly on their current single seat in the legislature. Québec Solidaire, a left-wing, environmentalist, and sovereignist party, is polling around 10 percent province-wide but expected to hold some of its seats in progressive urban areas, especially those with large student populations.

Separatist Party Is Favored To Top Polls in Monday’s Quebec Election

Separatist Party Is Favored To Top Polls in Monday’s Quebec Election

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