Slight Shift Toward Harris in Post-Debate Monmouth Poll

Vice President Harris is seeing a slight bump in support following her debate with President Trump, though the vast majority of those who watched say they will not change their vote based on last week’s showdown at Philadelphia.A new poll from Monmouth University — one of America’s few gold-standard surveys — suggests that Ms. Harris has increased her level of support over Trump after the debate. She now leads Trump nationally, 49 percent to 44 percent. While Trump leads Ms. Harris on the issue of immigration — which voters have listed as a top concern for more than a year — he still lags behind her on issues such as strength, seriousness, and mental acuity. Voters’ personal dislike for the former president and his running mate could be contributing to their poor poll numbers. Americans overwhelmingly trust Trump over Ms. Harris on immigration. In total, 56 percent say Trump would handle the immigration crisis more competently, compared to 45 percent who say the same of Ms. Harris. She leads him in the other categories, however. Among survey respondents, 58 percent said Ms. Harris is well-equipped to be president, compared to 50 percent who said the same of Trump. Pollsters gave voters the ability to answer “both” if they felt either candidate could handle the stresses of the Oval Office.On the question of who understands families’ day-to-day concerns, 49 percent said Ms. Harris could do so, compared to 45 percent who said the same of Trump. A majority — 52 percent — said the government would be “safe” in Ms. Harris’s hands, while 48 percent said Trump could be trusted to lead. Ms. Harris’s strongest lead over Trump was, unsurprisingly, on the issue of abortion. Some 60 percent of voters say Ms. Harris could be trusted to handle abortion rights. Just 43 said the same of Trump. That may help to explain the widening gender gap between the candidates. Ms. Harris has a wider lead among women — a majority of the voting population in every election for the last four decades — than Trump does among men, with the vice president taking 56 percent of the female vote and Trump taking 53 percent of the male vote. “There’s a reason why Harris spent so much time on abortion and Trump repeatedly hit on immigration during the debate. These are issues that clearly differentiate them and can mobilize large blocs of their supporters, as well as potential supporters,” said the director of Monmouth Polling, Patrick Murray. Ms. Harris’s popularity has rebounded dramatically since President Biden dropped out of the 2024 race and she took his place as the candidate, which may help explain some of her rise in the polls. Both she and her running mate, Governor Walz, have far higher net favorability numbers than Trump and his vice presidential pick, Senator Vance. According to Monmouth, Ms. Harris and Mr. Walz both have net positive favorability ratings of three percent, with 50 percent approving of Ms. Harris and 41 percent approving of her running mate. For unfavorable numbers, 47 percent have an unfavorable view of the vice president, and 38 percent have an unfavorable rating of the Minnesota governor. The picture is much darker for the Republican ticket. Just 44 percent have a favorable view of Trump and 36 percent have a favorable view of Mr. Vance. They have unfavorable ratings of 53 percent and 43 percent, respectively. Poll averages from FiveThirtyEight show that Ms. Harris’s favorable rating has now finally reached a net positive after three years underwater, with 46.6 percent having a favorable view of her as of Tuesday, and 46.5 percent having an unfavorable view. The same average shows Trump deep underwater, with just 42.9 percent having an unfavorable view and 52.5 percent having an unfavorable view.

Slight Shift Toward Harris in Post-Debate Monmouth Poll

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