2005-06 NBA Preview: Western Conference
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Is the Western Conference losing its mojo? After dominating the NBA for the past several seasons, the West finds itself rivaled for supremacy for the first time in ages. Sure, it still has the Spurs – the overwhelming favorite to win a fourth championship in seven seasons. But Shaq, Wade, LeBron, and Jermaine O’Neal all are in the East, not to mention all the Pistons. Meanwhile, former Western powers like Minnesota, Portland, and the Lakers have faded into oblivion.
This year, another Western contender seems likely to bite the dust as Phoenix has lost high-flying big man Amare Stoudemire to knee surgery for half the season. Looking to fill the void will be rising forces in Houston, Dallas, and Denver. The Rockets’ Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are the West’s most potent duo, while the increasingly defensive-minded Mavericks remain a serious threat. Meanwhile, the Nuggets’ deep, talented lineup figures to roll to the Northwest Division title and could ultimately face off with the Spurs in the conference finals.
For each team, I’ve included the starting five and their Player Efficiency Ratings for last season. PER is a statistical tool I invented that measures each player’s per-minute performance, with the league average set at 15.0.
NORTHWEST DIVISION
DENVER NUGGETS
STARTERS (PER)
G ANDRE MILLER (16.6)
G VOSHON LENARD (15.0)
F CARMELO ANTHONY (16.7)
F KENYON MARTIN (17.5)
C MARCUS CAMBY (18.1)
STRENGTH Transition offense. The Nuggets are a finely tuned fast-breaking machine, especially in the mile-high air of their home court With three point guards who can push the pace in Andre Miller,Earl Watson, and Earl Boykins, and big men who can run and finish like Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin, Denver is bested only by Phoenix in its ability to race down the floor for easy baskets.
WEAKNESS Shooting guard. In the halfcourt, things slow down to a crawl, and one reason is the lack of an outside shooting threat. Denver begins the year with Voshon Lenard, the team’s only accomplished 3-point shooter, as the starter at off guard, but he may not keep the job due to his other limitations – namely recovery from a torn Achilles tendon. Look for a trade by midseason.
X-FACTOR Carmelo Anthony. Which ‘Melo will we see this year – the selfish chucker from the first half of 2004-05 who brought the offense to a screeching halt every time he caught the ball so he could go one-on-one? Or the mature scorer who bought into George Karl’s system after the All-Star break and started piling up points in the flow of the offense? If it’s the latter, San Antonio needs to watch out.
Predicted Record: 51-31
UTAH JAZZ
STARTERS (PER)
G DERON WILLIAMS (ROOKIE)
G DEVIN BROWN (14.57)
F ANDREI KIRILENKO (24.5)
F CARLOS BOOZER (19.8)
C MEHMET OKUR (18.9)
STRENGTH Frontcourt. The trio of Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur should roll up the points and dominate the glass. It was Kirilenko’s absence due to injury that started the team’s nosedive last year, but as long as the group stays reasonably healthy, Utah’s stay in the lottery will be brief. However, a nagging hamstring problem kept Boozer out of preseason, which is not a good sign.
WEAKNESS Backcourt. The Jazz struggled last season because the guards were terrible, and they didn’t do much to improve the situation over the summer. Rookie Deron Williams will man the point after the Jazz inexplicably passed on Chris Paul in the draft, and his backup is journeyman Milt Palacio. Ex-Spur Devin Brown takes over at off guard, but won’t be much of an improvement on the departed Raja Bell.
X-FACTOR Matt Harpring. Harpring is a rugged forward with a soft touch who could be one of basketball’s best sixth men. However, after undergoing off-season knee surgery, the previously heavy-footed Harpring has looked positively glacial in the preseason. That’s a big issue because he was lit up by quicker forwards a year ago and may be forced to move to power forward to hide his defensive shortcomings.
Predicted Record: 46-36
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS
STARTERS (PER)
G LUKE RIDNOUR (14.6)
G RAY ALLEN (20.9)
F RASHARD LEWIS (1795)
F REGGIE EVANS (12.9)
C JOHAN PETRO (ROOKIE)
STRENGTH Shooting. The Soncis are often mistaken for a fast-paced team, but they’re actually a halfcourt team that sets multiple screens to get open outside shots. With a rotation of burly big men willing to set crushing picks and sharpshooters like Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Luke Ridnour roaming the perimeter, Seattle has been wildly effective.
WEAKNESS Perimeter defense. The Sonics were an atrocious defensive team last season, especially vulnerable to guards breaking them down off the dribble.Because wing players Lewis and Allen both are a step slow on defense,guards easily blew past them, and the Sonics’ ineffectual frontcourt players usually were too late to prevent a lay-up. As a result, Seattle desperately needs a defensive stopper on the outside.
X-FACTOR Ridnour. The immensely productive Antonio Daniels split for Washington as a free agent, meaning the pressure is on Ridnour to provide more offense from the point.Last season, Ridnour was content to create shots for others and avoid turnovers, but he often gave way to Daniels in the fourth quarter. This year, he will stay on the floor and must replace some of Daniels’s scoring.
Predicted Record: 38-44
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
STARTERS (PER)
G TROY HUDSON (12.0)
G TRENTON HASSELL (9.3)
F WALLY SZCZERBIAK (17.1)
F KEVIN GARNETT (28.4)
C MICHAEL OLOWOKANDI (10.3)
STRENGTH Kevin Garnett. Despite laboring through knee problems for much of the second half, Garnett again led the NBA in rebounding while seemingly doing everything else for Minnesota, too. He owned the league’s top Player Efficiency Rating for a second straight season and nearly willed an aging, decrepit team to the playoffs.
WEAKNESS Everything else. It’s a shame Garnett is spending his prime years surrounded by such mediocrity. No other Twolf could be described even as “above average” with a straight face. While the center situation is especially discouraging, with unmotivated Michael Olowokandi and unskilled Mark Madsen the only options,a lack of talent pervades the entire roster.
X-FACTOR Marko Jaric. Minnesota traded high-scoring guard Sam Cassell for Jaric in part for his versatility. Jaric can play three positions, handles and shoots the ball well, and is a deceptively good defender with great anticipation.But injuries and inconsistency have been his primary calling cards in recent years. The hope is that his escape from L.A. will engender a post-Clipper renaissance.
Predicted Record: 36-47
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
STARTERS (PER)
G SEBASTIAN TELFAIR (9.6)
G CHARLES SMITH (EUROPE)
F DARIUS MILES (15.5)
F ZACH RANDOLPH (18.7)
C JOEL PRZYBILLA (15.6)
STRENGTH Young talent.Thanks to a recent glut of first-round draft picks, Portland has as many capable young players as any team in the league. Point guards Sebastian Telfair and Jarrett Jack; shooting guard Martell Webster; small forwards Darius Miles, Sergei Monia, Travis Outlaw, and Viktor Khryapa; and power forward Zach Randolph all are 24 or younger, so the Blazers’ future looks bright.
WEAKNESS Backcourt. The present is cloudier than the Rose City in winter.Telfair’s shooting range doesn’t extend beyond the end of this sentence, while backup Jack is a rookie with limited offensive skills.At shooting guard,Webster is fresh out of high school and willl do a lot of watching. Instead, European refugee Charles Smith and undersized Juan Dixon will split the minutes.
X-FACTOR Darius Miles. Some nights, like when he scored 47 points off the bench late last season, Miles looks like an All-Star in the making. On others, he looks like he learned the game a few days ago. One of new head coach Nate McMillan’s biggest challenges is getting Miles to play hard every night and make better use of his considerable talent. Unfortunately, McMillan isn’t the first to try this.
Predicted Record: 31-51
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
STARTERS (PER)
G TONY PARKER (18.0)
G MANU GINOBILI (22.3)
F BRUCE BOWEN (9.5)
F TIM DUNCAN (27.1)
C NAZR MOHAMMED (16.4)
STRENGTH Defense. The Spurs, not the Pistons, have played the NBA’s best defense during the past two seasons, as measured by my Defensive Efficiency rankings. The linchpins of the Spurs’ suffocating D are forwards Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen. Bowen, Mr. Outside, is the best one-on-one perimeter defender in the league, while Duncan,Mr.Inside,has a supernatural ability to block shots without taking himself out of position for rebounds or picking up fouls.
WEAKNESS Center. My apologies to all the Knicks fans who still have Nazr Mohammed jerseys hanging in their closets, but his weaknesses were laid bare in the Finals against Detroit. At 6-foot-10, he’s relatively short for a center, which limits his ability to alter shots, and on offense his stone hands frequently turn assists into turnovers.
X-FACTOR Michael Finley. San Antonio won the bidding war for Finley despite having less money than other suitors, which reflects the appeal of the Spurs’ winning climate. Finley will add the perimeter bench scoring that was frequently absent in last year’s Finals, as well as some additional tenacity for the league’s toughest defense. Best of all, his quest for a first ring should help keep the team hungry.
Predicted Record: 62-20
DALLAS MAVERICKS
STARTERS (PER)
G JASON TERRY (18.4)
G DOUG CHRISTIE (9.9)
F JOSH HOWARD (15.8)
F DIRK NOWITZKI (26.2)
C ERICK DAMPIER (15.2)
STRENGTH Backcourt.Yes, they have Dirk Nowitzki, but what really sets the Mavs apart is their deep,talented guard rotation.Point man Jason Terry is a deadly shooter who figures to be the Mavs’ no. 2 scorer, while backup Devin Harris is a rising star.At shooting guard, there’s an embarrassment of riches, with defensive ace Doug Christie and high-scoring subs Jerry Stackhouse and Marquis Daniels.
WEAKNESS Defense.Coach Avery Johnson is trying to make the Mavs a better defensive team, but they’re a work in progress. Nowitzki has improved over the years, but still isn’t going to be an All-Defense pick any time soon, while Terry, Stackhouse,Daniels,and Keith Van Horn are all below average. The goods news is that Johnson merely needs this unit to be average, because Dallas’s offense is so good.
X-FACTOR Erick Dampier. Dampier signed a big contract to come to Dallas but was a huge disappointment last season. He didn’t rebound the way he had in Golden State and was routinely beaten by opposing centers when left in one-on-one coverage. Dampier has the physical skills to be the Mavs’ defensive rock, but his intensity yo-yos from day to day.
Predicted Record: 55-27
HOUSTON ROCKETS
STARTERS (PER)
G RAFER ALSTON (16.5)
G DEREK ANDERSON (11.7)
F TRACY MCGRADY (23.0)
F JUWAN HOWARD (13.0)
C YAO MING (23.2)
STRENGTH Shooting. Houston has a staggering array of outside talent that is made even more effective when op ponents have to double-team Yao Ming in the paint. Tracy McGrady is the leader of the pack, a deadly scorer who can carve up opponents from anywhere on the floor. But long-range aces like Rafer Alston, David Wesley, Jon Barry, and rook ie Luther Head add to the fun.
WEAKNESS Age. The Rockets’ attack is fueled by Geritol, and their legs could tire quickly as the year wears on. Point guard Bob Sura is 32 and may miss the season after having knee surgery, while Wesley turns 35 in two weeks, and starting power forward Juwan Howard is 32.Behind them are more grizzled vets: Jon Barry is 36,Derek Anderson is 31 with a bad back,and Dikembe Mutombo looks 90.
X-FACTOR Rafer Alston.The Rockets took a major gamble when they traded steady vet Mike James to Toronto for Alston during the off-season. James was just as productive statistically, defends better, and didn’t have Alston’s prickly attitude. But Alston may be a better fit in Houston.He is a purer point guard who can push the ball up the court and relieve McGrady of some ballhandling responsibilities.
Predicted Record: 54-28
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
STARTERS (PER)
G BOBBY JACKSON (18.0)
G MIKE MILLER (17.8)
F SHANE BATTIER (14.8)
F PAU GASOL (22.6)
C LORENZEN WRIGHT (14.0)
STRENGTH Bench. Memphis doesn’t have the A-list talent of some other Western teams, but it makes up for it through its sheer quantity of quality players. With quality subs like Damon Stoudamire, Eddie Jones, Dahntay Jones, Brian Cardinal, and rookie Hakim Warrick backing up a solid starting unit, coach Mike Fratello can mix and match freely to expose matchup advantages against opponents.
WEAKNESS Center. That depth doesn’t apply to the middle, however, as the Grizzlies continually get hammered in the paint. Starter Lorenzen Wright is a converted power forward who lacks the size to push opponents away from the rim, while Frankensteinian backup JakeTsakilidis (7-2, 290) is talentless.The Griz may often go small and play Pau Gasol at center, hoping to turn the game into a track meet.
X-FACTOR Bobby Jackson. Jackson was a deadly sixth man for the Kings for the past half-decade, but he can’t help Memphis unless he stays on the court. Jackson missed 89 games over the past two seasons with an assortment of injuries, and at 32 his body could be breaking down. If healthy, he’ll also have to suppress his shoot-first mentality enough to find the Grizzlies’ potent shooters spotting up.
Predicted Record: 42-40
NEW ORLEANS/OK. CITY HORNETS
STARTERS (PER)
G CHRIS PAUL (ROOKIE)
G J.R. SMITH (10.8)
F DESMOND MASON (14.7)
F DAVID WEST (11.1)
C P.J. BROWN (15.5)
STRENGTH Point guard.There’s not a lot to be excited about for Hornets fans, but they have two point guards who could start for at least half the NBA’s franchises. Skilled rookie Chris Paul somehow lasted until the fourth overall pick but is my favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award, while aptly named backup Speedy Claxton started in Golden State and has an extra gear that few others possess.
WEAKNESS Wings. Even with the recent trade for Desmond Mason, the Hornets’ situation on the wings looks grim.Teenage gunner J.R. Smith is at least a year away from being a productive regular, while European import Arvydas Macijauskas is a deadly shooter who can’t guard my keyboard. Beyond those two and Mason are a slew of interlopers impersonating professional basketball players.
X-FACTOR Chris Andersen.”Birdman” was a dead duck in the dunk contest but put together a stellar 2004-05 season, shooting 53.4% from the floor. However, at 6-foot-10, 220 pounds, he will be at a huge size disadvantage if, as expected, he opens the year as the Hornets’ starting center. His ability to put up with the pounding is key to keeping this club’s record somewhat respectable.
Predicted Record: 26-56
PACIFIC DIVISION
SACRAMENTO KINGS
STARTERS (PER)
G MIKE BIBBY (19.2)
G BONZI WELLS (15.9)
F PEJA STOJAKOVIC (17.3)
F S. ABDUR-RAHIM (18.7)
C BRAD MILLER (20.7)
STRENGTH The rest of the division. With Stoudemire injured in Phoenix and the Pacific’s other three teams not ready for prime time, the Kings appear to be the champions by default. Yes, their starting five looks offensively potent, but this club doesn’t exactly scream out division champion … until you see the competition.
WEAKNESS Defense. While the Kings will roll up the points, they’ll give them up just as easily. The starting five doesn’t have anyone remotely qualified to be a defensive stopper, and big men Abdur-Rahim and Miller are softies as well. Sacramento’s shortcomings were exposed in its fivegame blitz by Seattle last April, and an encore performance is on tap for the coming postseason.
X-FACTOR Bonzi Wells. Wells’s surly ways have forced his exile from both Portland and Memphis, so few coaches envy the Kings’ Rick Adelman. Nonetheless, Wells should be less insufferable since he’ll be playing 35 minutes a night, and the Kings sorely need his anticipation at the defensive end to disrupt opposing offenses. Best of all, it’s Bonzi’s contract year, so he should be on his best behavior.
Predicted Record: 46-36
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
STARTERS (PER)
G BARON DAVIS (20.8)
G JASON RICHARDSON (19.0)
F MIKE DUNLEAVY (14.5)
F TROY MURPHY (16.8)
C ADONAL FOYLE (12.7)
STRENGTH Backcourt. Few perimeter combos are more explosive than the Warriors’ Baron Davis and Jason Richardson. Each may be the league’s most athletic player at his position,and having the two push the tempo allows Golden State’s undersized big men to make it a fairer fight in the paint. There’s only one fly in the ointment: Each has fallen in love with the 3-pointer at the expense of his all-around game.
WEAKNESS Interior defense.As I mentioned, Golden State gets bullied in the paint fairly easily. Starting center Adonal Foyle is a defensive force but has to go 1-on-3 because he gets so little help from jump-shooting power forward Troy Murphy or paper-thin small forward Mike Dunleavy. Off the bench, teenager Andris Biedrins and undersized rookie Ike Diogu may not offer much help this season.
X-FACTOR Mike Dunleavy.It’s put up or shut up time for the Warriors’ fourth-year forward,who has been a mild disappointment since Golden State tabbed him with the third overall pick in 2002. Dunleavy’s lack of strength makes him ineffective on the glass and in stopping opponents in the post, while his shooting touch has been erratic. But if he solidifies the small forward spot, the Warriors’ 11-year playoff drought will end.
Predicted Record: 40-42
PHOENIX SUNS
STARTERS (PER)
G STEVE NASH (22.1)
G RAJA BELL (12.1)
F JAMES JONES (10.4)
F SHAWN MARION (21.8)
C KURT THOMAS (14.2)
STRENGTH Running and gunning. Phoenix led the league in scoring by a ridiculously wide margin last season, and despite the loss of Stoudemire to knee surgery, they’ll keep pushing the pace. Point guard Steve Nash is the game’s best open-court operator, and wingmen like Shawn Marion, Raja Bell, James Jones, Eddie House, and Boris Diaw should allow Phoenix to continue playing its entertaining style.
WEAKNESS Defense. Phoenix lost two key perimeter defenders in the off-season in Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson, while Stoudemire’s absence exposes a dangerously thin front-court rotation. As a result, the Suns stand to allow even more points than they score.Replacements Jones and Bell will try to stem the damage on the perimeter, while ex-Knick Kurt Thomas takes over for Stoudemire in the middle.
X-FACTOR Raja Bell. Joe Johnson wore many hats for the Suns last year: 3-point shooting ace, backup point guard, perimeter stopper,and occasional go-to scorer.Phoenix signed Bell as a free agent from Utah to fill the void created by Johnson’s departure. Bell won’t replace Johnson’s ball-handling or scoring punch, but the Suns will be satisfied if his 3-point shooting and defense provide a reasonable limitation.
Predicted Record: 36-46
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
STARTERS (PER)
G SMUSH PARKER (5.8)
G KOBE BRYANT (23.3)
F LAMAR ODOM (17.3)
F KWAME BROWN (10.3)
C CHRIS MIHM (15.7)
STRENGTH Wings. L.A. has been accumulating wing players for the past few seasons, and even after trading away Caron Butler and Jumaine Jones,they still have a crowd.Shooting guard Kobe Bryant is obviously the star of the group, while second banana Lamar Odom will move to small forward. Those two hope to recreate the Jordan-Pippen triangle offense magic Phil Jackson used with the Bulls.
WEAKNESS Point guard. I realize the triangle minimizes the importance of the point man, but this borders on absurd. L.A. has only one point guard on the roster entering opening day, and it’s well-traveled mediocrity Smush Parker. That means Bryant will probably spend much of the game as the de facto point guard in a big backcourt with McKie or even Odom, presenting L.A. with a problem at both ends.
X-FACTOR Kwame Brown. The Lakers rolled the dice by trading two starters to Washington to acquire this chronic underachiever.The top pick in the 2001 draft, Brown capped his four half-hearted seasons in Washington with his “sick-out” during last season’s playoffs. He’ll begin the year as the starting power forward, but the Zen Master won’t put up with any unexcused absences.
Predicted Record: 36-46
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
STARTERS
G SAM CASSELL (18.6)
G CUTTINO MOBLEY (15.0)
F COREY MAGGETTE (19.9)
F ELTON BRAND (22.5)
C CHRIS KAMAN (13.1)
STRENGTH Starting five. A quick look at the Clippers’ lineup shows a surprisingly potent group.Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobley, Corey Maggette, and Elton Brand are all capable of 25-point nights, and you could do worse than starting Chris Kaman in the middle.Mobley and Cassell also provide effective outside shooting for a team that was sorely lacking it a year ago, opening more space for Brand and Maggette inside.
WEAKNESS Bench. If nobody gets hurt, the Clips are playoff contenders,but back in the real world,L.A.’s subs will have to play major minutes, and they’re terrible. Things are especially bad on the wings, where second-year pro Quentin Ross can’t find the basket with a GPS and Russian rookie Yaroslav Korolev is years from contributing. Meanwhile, injury-prone guard Shaun Livingston is – surprise – injured.
X-FACTOR Sam Cassell.Cassell was limited to 59 games last year ago by hamstring and ankle problems. He turns 36 in November, and to say he plays matador defense is an insult to matadors. But he may be the league’s smartest offensive player, and if he can stay healthy, the Clippers should move up the charts in the league’s offensive standings.
Predicted Record: 33-49