All Is Quiet on New Year’s Day; Bowl Fever Begins January 2

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The New York Sun

The college bowl season kicks into overdrive Monday with six games, including the first two BCS contests. The highlight of the day is the Notre Dame-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl, while the Alabama-Texas Tech Cotton Bowl could be the day’s most interesting matchup due to the teams’ contrasting strengths. Here’s a preview for those planning on a marathon day on the living room couch:


AT&T COTTON BOWL
NO. 15 TEXAS TECH (9-2) VS. NO. 13 ALABAMA (9-2)
(11 a.m., FOX)


If the boxing axiom “styles make fights” holds true, this should be one heck of a game. The NCAA’s record book has been crying “uncle” against the onslaught of marks set by coach Mike Leach’s Texas Tech offense in recent seasons, but Alabama and its second-ranked defense should have plenty to say about the outcome of this game.


Texas Tech’s offensive output often looks like a basketball score – the Red Raiders broke 50 points six times this season, including 63 against Indiana State and 80 against Sam Houston State. The opposition is noteworthy, however. Texas Tech played one of the weakest non-conference schedules in America, and the Big 12 also offered up more than its share of patsies this season. The Red Raiders did manage 30 points against Kansas and 34 against Nebraska, but were held to 17 by Texas and 23 by Oklahoma. None of those schools has a defense the caliber of Alabama’s, which allowed just 154.8 yards passing (fourth nationally) and 10.7 points (first) per game this season.


Despite those numbers, Alabama will have its hands full with quarterback Cody Hodges and Tech’s unique spread offense. The Tide, who will need all available hands on deck against Tech’s plethora of five-receiver sets, are hurt by the loss of starting cornerback Simeon Castille to academic ineligibility.


As is often the case when teams’ strongest units cancel each other out, this game could well be decided by the other matchup: Alabama’s offense vs. Texas Tech’s defense. Alabama started the year well enough on offense that quarterback Brodie Croyle was considered a dark-horse Heisman contender, but the Tide never recovered from the loss of playmaking receiver Tyrone Prothro to injury. Tech’s defense is often overlooked, but it’s a hard-hitting unit that is stout against the pass, and it will be very tough for Alabama to mount a comeback if it falls behind. Look for Alabama to slow the tempo by running the ball with Kenneth Darby, while Texas Tech will attempt to push the pace any chance it gets.


TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL
NO. 6 NOTRE DAME (9-2) VS. NO. 4 OHIO ST. (9-2)
(4:30 p.m., ABC)


Short of the Texas-USC Rose Bowl, this is the one bowl game everyone wants to see, with a pair of storied Midwestern programs engaging in a rare showdown. Despite the football pedigree of the two schools, this will mark only their fifth meeting ever and their first since 1996.


This game should also shed some light on the Rose Bowl, since USC passed its toughest test this season in a come-from-behind road win at Notre Dame, while Texas did likewise at Ohio State.


This has been a resurgent season for Notre Dame under first-year coach Charlie Weis, who would love nothing more than to see the Irish break a seven-bowl skid. Weis has done a remarkable job of turning the talent that struggled under Ty Willingham into a national power, particularly by transforming the offense into a quick-strike passing attack. Under Weis’s tutelage, Brady Quinn became a record setting quarterback and Heisman Trophy contender, and an unknown, gangly receiver named Jeff Samardzija became one of nation’s most dangerous downfield threfats.


Ohio State has the talent on defense to slow down the Irish, even without injured linebacker Bobby Carpenter. A.J. Hawk (who happens to date Quinn’s sister) and the front seven must pressure the Notre Dame quarterback. Buckeye cornerbacks Ashton Youboty and Tyler Everett are solid, but they won’t hold up if forced to cover Samardzija and Maurice Stovall for five seconds on every pass play.


The Notre Dame offense, top 10 in the nation in passing yards, points, and total offense, does a lot to cover for a defense that can be pushed around, particularly against the pass. That’s why Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith is the key to this game. Much like the Cotton Bowl, the matchup of Ohio State’s defense against Notre Dame’s offense could be a wash, leaving the battle on the other side to determine things.


Smith improved as the year went on, and was at his absolute best in bringing the Buckeyes from behind at Michigan. Similar to Texas’s Vince Young, he has the ability to keep plays alive with his feet and find late-opening receivers downfield. And Ohio State’s receivers, Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn, can get downfield with anybody. If Smith has time to throw, it could be lights out for the Irish.


To keep the pass rush honest, both teams with try to run the ball, but this game is likely to be decided on the arms of the two quarterbacks. Regardless of the outcome, some feel this could be a preview of next year’s national championship game, with many of the key names set to return for both teams.


OUTBACK BOWL
IOWA (7-4) VS. NO. 17 FLORIDA (8-3)
(11 a.m., ESPN)


Urban Meyer’s first year in Gainesville was an uneven one, but the Gators still managed wins over their three top rivals (Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida State) even if they did fall to Steve Spurrier and South Carolina. Still, the outcome of this game will largely determine whether the season goes down as a success or failure.


For Florida quarterback Chris Leak, it could mean much more than that. With top recruit Tim Tebow set to arrive next year as the hand picked leader of Meyer’s spread-option, Leak needs a big game against the Hawkeyes to get a jump start on retaining his job. Never a great fit for the run part of the option attack, Leak has nonetheless had a decent year. He faces a tough defense with Iowa’s linebacker tandem of Chad Greenway and Abdul Hodge, but the Gators likely have too much talent on both sides of the ball to fall here.


TOYOTA GATOR BOWL
NO. 19 LOUISVILLE (9-2) VS. NO. 10 VIRGINIA TECH (10-2)
(1 p.m., ABC)


Much of the potential for an excellent game in Jacksonville went out the window when Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm tore up his knee, leaving former walk-on Hunter Cantwell to face Virginia Tech’s top-ranked defense. Louisville can be an explosive team, but it’s hard to imagine them lighting up the scoreboard against the Hokies, who are still smarting from their ACC title game loss to Florida State on this same field.


Look for Virginia Tech quarterback Marcus Vick to use this game to shake off his late season struggles after a dreadful performance against Miami – and to launch his 2006 Heisman campaign – against a Louisville defense that is without standout defensive tackle Montavious Stanley.


CAPITAL ONE BOWL
NO. 18 WISCONSIN (9-3) VS. NO. 9 AUBURN (9-2)
(1 p.m., ABC)


Wisconsin’s players have a final chance to send retiring coach Barry Alvarez out a winner after dropping their last two Big Ten games to miss out on a share of the Big Ten title. The program-building job Alvarez did at Wisconsin – turning a perennial loser into a perennial Big Ten contender that won three Rose Bowls – cannot be overstated. It would be a surprise if his players weren’t at their best in his final game on the sidelines.


They’ll need to be against an Auburn team that looks like a comer for next season. The Tigers started slowly after losing much of the talent from last year’s 13-0 team to the NFL draft, but have improved all year, culminating in wins over Georgia and Alabama to end the regular season. Quarterback Brandon Cox has settled comfortably into the offense and the defense ranks ninth nationally. Wisconsin, which has struggled defensively this season, will need to get a great effort out of the front seven and create a few turnovers if it is to have any chance to pull off the upset.


NOKIA SUGAR BOWL
NO. 11 W. VIRGINIA (10-1) VS. NO. 7 GEORGIA (10-2)
(8:30 p.m., ABC)


This game is probably the least-interesting of the four BCS contests, even though it features a pair of 10-win teams. West Virginia will be looking to prove that its season was not merely a product of playing in a Big East conference that was weakened by the defections of three top teams. A blowout loss could add fuel to the fire burning over whether the conference deserves an automatic BCS berth.


Like all the SEC powers, Georgia features a top defense and a solid-enough offense. Quarterback D.J. Shockley, whose knee injury probably cost the Bulldogs a win against Florida, is healthy again and wants to end his senior season with a Sugar Bowl victory. Unless Georgia beats itself with mistakes, it’s hard to see West Virginia being able to move the ball effectively enough with an option attack that relies heavily on the run game to win.



Mr. Levine is a regular writer for FootballOutsiders.com.


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